Indivior Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 29/7/2016 08:32

Outlook-- Full year guidance today raised to net revenue in a range of $1,000m to $1,030m (previously $945m - $975m) and adjusted net income (excluding exceptionals) of $180m to $200m (previously $155m-$180m) at constant exchange rates (versus 2015). The guidance recognises current market conditions in the US are continuing into H2, but assumes no deterioration in generic tablet pricing, limited impact of branded competition, and investment of $35m above original assumptions in driving innovations. The Company will update further at Q3 results on November 2nd, 2016.

[gregmorg] 15/7/2016 11:22

Quite! But do we hear the tiny patter?

[steeplejack] 15/7/2016 11:15

A "proper " ADR listing suggests that the company will concentrate any future equity funding in the US following the example of GW Pharma.

[gregmorg] 15/7/2016 11:07

The proposed upgraded ADR listing , Steeplejack, doesn't do much for me in the very near term as we have seen many such announcements from various companies over the years and to mixed effect.

Having said that, it has got an underlying medium term message that the management has an upbeat view of the future over far beyond the patent litigation. The rising proportion of US shareholders were alluded to in the accompanying statement and possibly that could rise further given the proportion of US earnings and general UK reluctance to invest at too early a stage. There are several ways to widen share ownership, of course,but providing any further move leads to value enhancement then fine!

Figures on the 29th of this month but it will have to be the webcast for me this time.

[gregmorg] 07/7/2016 16:38

Yes, nice to see. As far as I am concerned ,once again, inertia is a wonderful investment strategy! I thought the recent executive(chief legal officer) buying was encouraging. He must believe the recent patent win was good for a positive resolution of the other patent disputes.

Some have argued that the share price strength is as a result of sterling's weakness for this dollar earner but at this stage of its development I don't buy that.

[steeplejack] 07/7/2016 15:52

This has been a rocky old ride since floatation but we're hitting new intra-day highs now.

[steeplejack] 17/6/2016 07:23

Amidst all this volatility easy to overlook that the shares went XD yesterday 9.5 cents (for the last time) equivalent to some 6.7p.

[gregmorg] 16/6/2016 15:40

Yup. Nice to see.

I thought the Jefferies presentation on 7th June, four days after the posiive patent decision was very upbeat.Talking of removing uncertainties to the business plus Bup Monthly Depot being a game changer(potentially that is!). More news on the latter, of course, coming in the third qtr.

I liked the presentation with the management sounding in very positive mood. Share price moves in recent days may have reflected some of this uptick in mood although its a guess as, other than this stab in the dark, I havent a clue. Taken the view nothing reflects vaue currently and just will see what the next few weeks bring on all stocks.

[steeplejack] 16/6/2016 13:13

Scopia have bought a further 1% of the equity over the past week.

[steeplejack] 08/6/2016 18:01

Scopia Capital Management (Goldman Sachs) now hold 11.09% (79.937m shares) of the equity,up from 10.03% (72.055m) in February.Coming on the back of the recent news,might suggest a vote of confidence.

[gregmorg] 07/6/2016 18:56

understood. thanks Steeplejack. Back to my bricolage!

[steeplejack] 07/6/2016 14:39

Well the FT just said "downgraded to neutral" and I can't discover the exact status of Merrill's previous recommendation.Jeffries restated a buy recommendation on the 6th June with a target of 245p.Citicorp remain with a buy recommendation and a 210p target but that was made a month back.

[gregmorg] 07/6/2016 09:40

Makes sense. Mind you, in terms of share price movement.The usual consensus is that a third give back after a significant share price rise is healthy!

Steeplejack you mentio Merrills change of investment stance but purely for my edification can you say what their public stance was beforehand please? i was very happy to see that last piece of patent news so feel the longer term investment view remains intact.Essentially am sitting tight and awaiting events.

[steeplejack] 07/6/2016 07:53

Artemis have sold some 0.46% of their equity holding,around 3 million shares to take their holding to 4.68%.
Today's FT market report carries a fairly long review of yesterday's share price fall.Merrill has moved to a neutral rating while RBC also warns that the Delaware ruling is not the end of the matter,another generic competitor hearing is upcoming this November and at the end of the day,the success of the injectible version,which Indivior is to launch in the second half of 2017,remains paramount.
So sobering stuff after Friday's euphoria.Yet,it's easy to feel that the Delaware judgement buys Indivior some time.

[the mugger] 05/6/2016 16:22

Thanks Steeplejack, much appreciated.

TM

[steeplejack] 05/6/2016 11:15

"Meanwhile, on the mid-cap index, Indivior posted its biggest daily gain on record, surging 36.2pc to 235.1p after it won a ruling that will keep its generic version of Suboxone, which is used to treat opioid dependency, off the US market until 2024. James Vane-Tempest, of Jefferies, said the ruling represents “a watershed moment” for the addiction-treatment specialist and helps clear “the bulk of the overhang that has plagued the company its independence”. "Daily Telegraph Sat 4 June

Yes,good news,as good as a full tank of petrol Greg as you tour the Continent!Hope you have a pleasant time and fine weather.

It was those comments made by the analyst at the end of the recent results presentation(which Greg drew attention to)that determined me to hang in.Yes,I think M&A is more than likely as the company accelerates plans to bolster its drug portfolio.I'm not fully convinced that the shares will hold all that sharp gain on Friday but this ruling clarifies things.The stock isn't BREXIT sensitive which is a relief.The shares have been some 10% higher over the last year,so they're not exactly walking in thin air.Moreover,i suppose a touch of takeover speculation could re-emerge given the improved cash flow prospects for proprietary Suboxone.

[the mugger] 04/6/2016 19:46

Greg

Do you have a link of the Jeffries piece?

Thanks

[the_fiddler] 04/6/2016 15:16

Greg, given that the negativity has been lifted, wheres this likely to go? Do you think there are any damages involved with this patent infringement?

[gregmorg] 04/6/2016 14:07

well Steeplejack that was quite a pleasant uplift! Maybe more to come. So one of our two common stocks is starting to shine a tad. Was driving across the Continenton start of a summer break yesterday when I got a call re the RNS and that made my journey. Must admit I too thought the previous announcement would give us a little spike up which didn't really happen. This RNS response has amazed me although one of my contacts in touch with current pharma analysts,did suggest that the stock was going nowhere till there was news on the patent litigation. That was the professional view--for what it's worth.So in that respect absolutely right I suppose. The negativity must have been huge! Very cynical about these things as you too will be. Presume other litigants take note and chances of subsequent overturning fairly remote one assumes!

Saw the Jeffries comment in the DT paper this morning and that too was encouraging. A view is M and A activity highly likely with bolt on's fully expected within months. That need to bulk up,after all, is why they stopped the dividend. still its good we kept our calm. Could turn into a serious stock in time.

[the_fiddler] 04/6/2016 08:24

Patent infringement case ruled in favour of Indivi. This is going to blow on Monday in my opinion.