Indivior Share Discussion Threads

[ali47fish] 03/5/2016 10:12

when is the update i pencilled in today - but nothing has apearted?

[gregmorg] 03/5/2016 09:57

Mm, could they be they teeing up a few punters for an acquisition?

[steeplejack] 03/5/2016 09:24

Down 6% on opening and we don't get the figures til 1pm!Not encouraging.Can we assume someone's steamed open the envelope.

[gregmorg] 28/4/2016 18:33

Agreed although does a Phase 1 failure really require an announcement? I am not that keen on the other part of the announcement although apparently now rectified. Waiting patiently for some good news but I guess more time needed.

[steeplejack] 28/4/2016 14:31

No big deal, a drug failing in phase 1

[steeplejack] 15/4/2016 17:05

Que sera sera

[ali47fish] 15/4/2016 15:45

so who is the cleverer of the 2?

[ali47fish] 15/4/2016 15:14

where's everybody here! artemis are adding

[steeplejack] 22/2/2016 16:17

Or perhaps as a sizeable shareholder,they were asked what they thought about a prospective suspension of dividend payments when they had a percentage holding of over 10%.What a cynical idea!

[gregmorg] 21/2/2016 23:21

Thanks. Certainly it did have an impact. Yet the cynic in me says a QUESTOR recomendation Mm! He could be right of course. But we shall see. Stupidly or whatever- I shall stick. Had it not been for the dividend announcement I might have continued to add. Now it would just look bad on my spreadsheet

[gregmorg] 20/2/2016 10:39

Nicely summed up. Yes, the timing of the dividend intentions announcement appears premature to say the least. I did half wonder whether covenants within the debt instrument, taken out after the IPO ,had some restrictions which they feared could get close to being breached if their industry scenario faltered. Also could be such restrictions cramped their expansion options. By that I mean their ability to create further currency! If that was the case then it would have been an exercise in poor judgement at the time of taking out the debt! They now look as if they want to pay it down fast now-- expensive so one can understand that.

So we are left with talk of revenue growth and then implied capital growth etc yet it is so early and just a matter of belief at this stage. Unfortunately all shareholders are so new to this company and have nothing to sustain that stance. Long term this stock could be great but it appears the management is intent on testing us for the medium term!

More anon no doubt.

[gregmorg] 19/2/2016 17:18

Yes, Steeplejack I agree with much, if not all, of what you have written. A nudge here and there with a suggestion of a better buying opportunity a bit later is never ignored. Sometimes, of course, just a vacuum of information from usually well informed sources gives the appropriate message. Institutional guys just happen to have have a certain contempt for the private investors and that rubs off on all whom they speak with. Within the latter I include the companies they advise. Uninformed and not on the ball would be the common City view of the private investor yet not appreciating as to why they are not informed and not on the ball!

Of course one can understand institutional contempt for the private investor, after all the big players are playing and advising with big, indeed serious, institutional money and not the Micky Mouse stuff. The fact that the institutional money is not actually theirs, whilst the private investor's obviously is, will be an irrelevance at the big table.

Still we will have our day at some stage. With this one, not for a while I fear.

As for cutting the future dividend yet looking to issue equity; I have difficulty with the concept. If anything I would say that the future dividend statement has made issuing equity more difficult for a while. Conserving the cash to pay down debt and maybe buy developing product or small companies with cash/debt instruments struck me as the more likely but it wouldn't be the first time I get it wrong! Sometimes institutions get mesmerized by a biggish discount to market price. Not something I want to contemplate!

[steeplejack] 19/2/2016 13:57

My hunch is that they are on the look out for bolt-on acquisitions.If they use equity to make those purchases,they'd rather not have to pay cash draining dividends.There's no doubt in my mind that the company's broker was consulted by Indivior about the idea of giving up paying a dividend.It's inconceivable that they weren't.Subsequent to that discussion,the stock fell to an all time low.Admittedly,the pharmas as a whole were under pressure but nonetheless,given that trading was up to management expectations during the period the shares were falling,you have to conclude that the proposed cut to the dividend was being steadily discounted..........not good.

[gregmorg] 19/2/2016 11:38

Yes there could be a bit of income related selling. Its hardly surprising that the stock gives back some of its significant one day gain. Steeplejack, your added comments re the prop desk positions and human weakness, all of which make the market what it is, are spot on.

Not that happy about the dividend! For a starter it spoils my spreadsheet! However, as its the capital growth I am after,we go with it. I was pleased I could access the Q and A section of the webcast again today as yesterday's actual live transmission for me was incomplete and a frustration. Now I guess it's down to patience and news flow.

[steeplejack] 19/2/2016 10:01

Income funds selling perhaps?

[steeplejack] 18/2/2016 14:39

One has to presume someone was taken over the wall re the dividend.Thing is,a bank's proprietary book will invariably move to a square position,if they get a nod and a wink.Someone always knows and someone always tells.Anyway,like you Greg,I'll be holding on and try to get a better handle on things.

Having now listened to the webcast,it is clear that the decision to suspend dividend payments is strategic with an intent to conserve cash to grow the business both organically and potentially through acquisitions of addiction related businesses.The management seem confident that net pricing in their product areas will remain relatively stable in the year ahead.They also feel there's an increasing global appreciation of the substantial financial benefits of tackling opiate dependency.They quote a study that suggested that for every dollar spent on treating addiction,the bottom line saving can be as high as 12 dollars.This lends some credence to the management belief that premium pricing can continue to exist despite the growth of generic competition.That said,I don't think they directly answered Jo Walton's second question on the subject of generic competition/cash strapped health services.Maybe they feel reasonably confident that Suboxone in a growth market can continue to confound pessimists.

I started the day thinking the figures a disaster because I jumped to the conclusion that the suspension of dividends reflected trading.That's far from the true as today's price jump confirms.The company is doing pretty well and the manner of the presentation is very confident.Happy to hold.

[gregmorg] 18/2/2016 13:36

Yes, I too wondered about the weak share price. Companies do visit major share holders and discuss strategy and other mostly non price sensitive areas. With such an important decision-it would be strange not to have sounded out the major investors.

That can make them insiders which puts the stock on a restricted list for that investment house. A side effect can be that if you had the stock on your buy list then they stop buying the stock--plus,of course, they cannot sell! Compliance chaps are very strict about these thing. The result can be the buyers get stopped from buying yet the natural flow of sellers keep on. So sometimes the share price can reflect an issue without the market fully realizing it.

I listened to the webcast but missed out on the questions and answers because the transmission went wonky. Takes time to form a view of this one, so in time honored fashion, I am contemplating my navel for a few weeks while trying to digest!

[steeplejack] 18/2/2016 11:22

Good comments Greg.Haven't sold any and will wait and see what emerges from question and answer.Cutting the dividend is often regarded as salutary.The stock has also been very weak which suggests that this news was widely anticipated.Frankly,the share price movements of this stock have always been something of a mystery to me!

[gregmorg] 18/2/2016 10:21

Mm, I can see your disappointment re future dividends etc but maybe a bit more time to reflect is needed. Overall the figures were as expected so no panic there!

The dumping of the Nasal Nalaxone product, following the FDA complete response letter,was strongly hinted at months ago and to see it formally dumped is no surprise. It was low profitability anyway.

The additional resources to be applied in the current year to pre-marketing another new product, Monthly Bup Depot, not insignificant but surprised me with its-implied associated confidence, given Phase 3 not complete. Quite a risk cutting the future dividend flow out at this stage given that the projected Company revenues and cash flow are not too far adrift of the year just gone. So why now! Is it a sign of confidence that the drug pipeline will soon start to kick in to show the company's increasing underlying value and it can stand on its own two feet?

I will try to listen in to the briefing at 12 o'clock(it can be difficult to stay the course let alone understand it all!) and see where we go from there.