Indivior Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 07/10/2015 16:31

Reason for price fall,Sandoz attempting to launch generic competition.* Sandoz letter indicated it submitted ANDA to U.S. FDA for approval of commercial manufacture, sale of generic formulation of co's suboxone sublingual film product* Indivior's orange book listed patents have expiration dates of February 13, 2023; April 3, 2024; and March 26, 2030* Intends to assert and enforce its intellectual property against Sandoz and will initiate a patent infringement lawsuit against Sandoz Source text for Eikon: Further company coverage: (Bengaluru Newsroom: [phone])

[rebess4] 03/8/2015 11:40

I'm new to Indivior so haven't a lot to say. - One observation is that they seem to suffer wild swings in their daily trading patterns.

[gregmorg] 29/7/2015 15:53

Yes, the dividend expectation for the year has crept up but do note the expected payout is based upon the Company's revised guidance for the year. The Company has also stated it will review its current guidance at the time of the third quarter in November. So you could conclude that the guidance may edge up further which would impact the full year dividend to a greater extent. Not that this is a dividend play!

The analysts and investors briefing at midday was quite informative and the executive team appeared upbeat for the future. The Nasal Naloxone( an instant remedy countering overdose)was interesting and received a FDA Priority Review yesterday( just in time for today's figures) and appears to suggest this product could be launched by the end of this year. It was stated there is a public crisis in the USA re opiate overdoses with some 25,000 deaths a year. The product will be priced to sell so that it becomes available to front line workers. So a nice earner for next year.

Expected generic pricing pressures(built into the original model) have not materialized although the Co cautioned that their model indicated it would /should at some stage.

2H agenda includes a big Science Roundtable in New York in Oct , a Morgan Stanley Conference in September. Various bits of product news. Co cashflow unexpectedly strong assisted by improved payables. Cash $523m with net debt $220m vs $428m at end of 2014. So Co flexibilty improved. Opportunities for enlarging the Co product base within the addiction market will be looked at as they arise, and would always be looked at, but in the near term nothing appeared imminent(famous last words of course). Maybe debt is reduced further first?

Lots of other detail which I am sure people can see via the webcast. Generally I was quite happy with today's news and presentation but will be happier still when I see even more positive product news and, of course, revenues start to trend up.

[batman9] 29/7/2015 10:49

The Board has approved an interim dividend of 3.2cents per ordinary share. This is consistent with the commitment in the prospectus issued for the demerger in November 2014 that the Company would payout 40% of net income as a dividend, payable in USDs, for financial year 2015. The interim dividend is approximately one third of this commitment based on the revised guidance for the year, with the balance due to be paid (subject to shareholder approval at the AGM) as a final dividend in 2016. The interim dividend will be paid
on October 23rd to shareholders on the register on September 18th,2015. The ex-dividend date will be September 17th,2015. The last date for receipt
of elections for the dividend reinvestment plan will be October 2nd,2015.

[gregmorg] 29/7/2015 10:00

Yes an encouraging statement with dividend expectations raised as well. Very pleasing.

I am not convinced the company will get full UK institutional acceptance until the revenue direction is seen to be turning around or is about to turn around. Mind you, a few of the big international fund managers have decided it is OK and taken decent positions. Nice to see although I would have preferred they hung back a bit more so I could have topped up--but there you go! In the meantime, I am pretty sure that the revenue trend will turn in time and am happy to wait for it.

[melody9999] 29/7/2015 08:16

key thing is earnings guidance raised. may be some noise from pi's but good reasons to hold / add for ii's.

[steeplejack] 29/7/2015 07:44

Good update.excellent news on Naloxone.

With a 3.2 cent interim dividend,should be looking at something approaching 10 cents for the full year (given an implied final dividend double that of the declared interim).Thus at current xrate looking at something in the range of 6-7p full year payout which gives a prospective yield of around 2.5% at 260p.EPS for full year of perhaps 16-17p.High mid teens PER.

Interesting new product development makes this a solid hold imo but how the market will react after recent strength is difficult to gauge.

[steeplejack] 28/7/2015 11:56

Figures tomorrow.Does today's uptick suggest optimism.Guess so

[steeplejack] 17/7/2015 09:07

Interesting background information especially as concerns past valuations.Thanks Greg.

[gregmorg] 16/7/2015 18:05

Steeplejack I think you will be more rather pleasantly surprised in time. Certainly when I started with this one in January I felt it was easily going to £2, if not a bit higher, in the near term. I had sat through the almost all day Analysts briefing which was interesting but a serious plod.

It did tell me the market potential was huge and was comprised of various themes. Yet the company was really in a period of transition which could be a bit painful in revenue setback and that this could last two years.

That of course was why Reckitt didn't find a buyer at a decent price and so they gave the thing to shareholders.Some analysts/market commentators had valued the thing at up to £4 a share but there were big discrepancies between these valuations. So really most didn't have a clue!

Shareholders given something of value for nothing, which they didn't know they had in the first place, don't tend to value it; hence it presented a wonderful opportunity for outsiders. The first RNS statement after independence happened when I was overseas and that threw me a little but only for a couple of days as directors bought shares in large quantities. Back in the UK,the more I examined the statement the more I reasoned they were being unduly cautious.

From here re the share price in the near term, I really haven't a clue. For the long term I believe it can reach the heights of another of your /our specialist currently becalmed pharmaceutical holdings( this info I think I spotted, unless you have a double on the Bulletin boards) but in a much shorter time scale(now there's a thought!)

The 29 July will throw more light. The opiates/addiction market and its treatment is a big field in the USA and even lesser markets and Indivior has established a serious presence. As an addictive investor I can appreciate this although Mr Market prescribes his own antidote to my addiction!

In time variations of product will be added and that should boost revenues considerably. the R and D spend is biggish for a small company but it is not original R and D but more development research, if that makes sense. It does to me but I wrote it! in the meantime we will soon see a dividend,within a stated parameter, whatever it is will always be most welcome.

[steeplejack] 16/7/2015 17:06

I thought this stock was little better than a hold,a full pound lower at 160p in Feb.Director buying encouraged me to hold on.Profitable investment often requires a fair dollop of luck.
Yesterday,Citigroup reiterated their buy recommendation.Haven't been able to discover their target price.

[farmsted] 13/7/2015 12:10

Charts out of date, nice rise in share price today must be some news leaking.

[melody9999] 04/6/2015 22:11

Good performance on a poor day for the markets. Looks ready to break 240 and go on to new highs. Has a great 100 score on Stockopedia. DYOR

[bamboo2] 02/6/2015 17:01

Breakout of pennant confirmed for a target of approx 257



edited
040615 07:42

[bamboo2] 26/5/2015 09:48

taken a few, based on chart potential.

[bamboo2] 25/5/2015 22:30

daily, unconfirmed

[gregmorg] 13/5/2015 16:16

I just couldn't get to the AGM at Grosvenor Square today although, at 4pm, note no AGM statement has been issued. Assume the company had nothing extra of substance to say.

Having said that, look at the announcements! A whole lot of directors have individually bought shares at a price around 229p so their very upbeat view has been backed in the best time honored way of putting their money etc etc. As a shareholder it's very reassuring to see even if I haven't quite got my head around their enthusiasm.

[steeplejack] 05/5/2015 16:23

Thanks for that gregmorg.News on the RBP-7000 explains why this stock has motored away from the issue price so positively and(as far as I'm concerned)rather unexpectedly.Any news to do with a meaningful widening of the company's drug portfolio will be well received.

[gregmorg] 05/5/2015 13:51

Webcast just finished and was positive although not a huge amount of extra info. Co will look to review financial guidance at interim stage and acknowledges this could then be revised upwards. Talking to other parties re adding licensing deals to current portfolio and on time guidelines this could happen at any time. Compared it with a licensing deal that happened last year( detail of which I am unsure). I presumed from this the Co is well down the line in discussions.

Second part of the Phase 3 trials, being the open label aspect, will finish sometime next year, maybe early!, and then the NDA, which to my limited knowledge can take up to another year. Indivior could/may do a deal to farm out the distribution of the Schzio drug given its current limited distribution capabilities. Early days here.

Questions re generic competitor tactics and the company's view of competitive trends with standard replies.

Questions on the syndicated loan/debt just completed as it costs 8% pa and expensive. Given Co good cash flows will look to mitigate cost and aim to reduce debt/maybe refinance as the Company's debt rating improves but as the syndication only just completed it is early days.

Overall a short web meeting but positive as far as I could understand.

[gregmorg] 05/5/2015 12:18

So the 1st Qtr is declared and maybe a tad better than expected with talk of upgrading full year guidance later in the year. That of course would be helpful for the intended dividend--highlighted at launch as 40% of net income for this year.

The pipeline also is making progress and it seems to me that is what everything hangs on. The Phase 3 result moves us on to a near certainty of the NDA and quite a new quite big product for 2017. The webcast at 1 pm will throw more light but so far so good.