Iog Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 09/9/2022 12:30

Hp so basically your inferences, (loosely) the same as mine actually, is its gwc and only one reservoir due to completely different structures and the bizarre continual high salinity references, are because they believe it is not seawater ingress "somewhere" although there is a tiny tiny chance it "could" be both gwc reservoir and seawater leak combined? All IMHO and DYOR.

[hpcg] 09/9/2022 11:30

wskill - no, I'm not sure how East Southwark could be bought online now. They could stop at 2 wells I suppose; the plan as I understand it is 3 horizontals. Really they just need to get the mud loss resolved and carry on.

Dunderhead - a couple of reasons. Firstly high salinity implies deep brine associated with a salt body / evaporites. Secondly Elgood and Blythe are completely independent in the subsurface so something happening in one field would be very unlikely to occur simultaneously in another. It could perhaps be associated with the Zechstein which is above the reservoir. Anyway the source is not pertinent to the proposition that only one field has an issue because unless it is seawater, which I assume they have eliminated by salinity, they are completely independent entities.

[dunderheed] 09/9/2022 10:33

Are you suggesting stopping the current drilling with all the well control issues - perhaps even losing the well to complete the ES well?
Not saying this is necessarily the case but perhaps that is (one of) the issue(s)?

[wskill] 09/9/2022 10:27

hpcg could they not get the East Southwark well online now its drilled and just needs completion with present high gas prices it would soon recover any extra cost,Cannot see Southwark online in 2022 with what we have witnessed already .

[dunderheed] 09/9/2022 10:26

hpcg - why do you infer one well because the salinity is high?
I'm not saying your hunch is wrong but asking (respectfully) what (personal?) analysis you base this on?

[hpcg] 09/9/2022 10:18

The water is almost certainly from one well if the salinity is high. In my opinion it is Southwark news that will move the share price forward soonest. Firstly because it will be announced sooner, whereas the water source will take a lot longer simply because of the time it takes for the fluids to flow through the pipes. Secondly as it spreads production across more fields. With respect to remediation of the brine I would imagine whatever permits or authorisations are required will be expedited given the energy shortage. That doesn't mean plant, if required, can be built more quickly, just that artificial delays will be removed.

[kibes] 09/9/2022 09:02

The market has got a real downer on this? Even at 30mmscfd they are making buckets of money and there is Southwark still to come onstream. How will they resolve the water issue? Probably choke back production from the 2 wells, but can likely still achieve 30-50mmscfd according to their estimate which seems reasonable.

[geordie99] 09/9/2022 08:27

Bounty hunter. You should have a look at HHR.ASX
Southern North Sea fields 304Bcf 2P with a divestment programme currently being run by LAB Advisors. It’s a copy cat of clipper south.
hxxps://youtu.be/470O0I8mcYo

I don’t think London has discovered it yet but they should list on AIM shortly. Trading at approx $1.5 usd BOE and still own 100% of the equity.

[bountyhunter] 08/9/2022 16:53

Agree on both.

This must be about the only gas company that's managed to decrease in value recently given the sky high current and forward gas prices!

[slicethepie] 08/9/2022 16:49

We need the for sale sign putting up, this is too complicated for our pony and trap management to sort.

[anley] 08/9/2022 16:43

Weak price to continue if no resolution to the so called water issue.

[bountyhunter] 06/9/2022 13:14

"A government source has told Sky News that the Treasury would effectively provide financing, directly through government borrowing rather than state-backed loans, to cover rising wholesale gas costs for both households and businesses.

This would allow domestic gas and electricity suppliers to sell energy at around their current average annual rate just under £2,000 for the foreseeable future - possibly until the next election in 2024"

[bountyhunter] 06/9/2022 12:22

Southern North Sea
There has been no drilling in the SNS since 2019. The next exploration wells expected to be drilled in the region are Shell and Deltic Energy’s 41/5a-B Pensacola exploration well and IOG and CalEnergy’s 53/1b Kelham North and Central exploration well, both expected to be drilled in Q3 – Q4 2022.


(link courtesy of Steelwatch)

[bountyhunter] 05/9/2022 19:03

Doubt that or they would have RNS'd, however sold at NBP day ahead one well will raise the revenues originally anticipated for two several times over at the current crazy gas prices.

From the recent interims:

"The gas sales VWAP was 148.7 p/therm over the 1H 2022 period. This has increased to 254 p/therm for 2H 2022 to date (1 July - 21 August 2022 inclusive) and at the current time the UK NBP forward curve is pricing the Winter-22 contract in excess of 700 p/therm and both the Summer-23 and Winter-23 contracts in excess of 650 p/therm, albeit it should be noted that these prices are subject to a high degree of volatility."

[wskill] 05/9/2022 09:55

Looking good today is our little water problem fixed I wonder.

[bountyhunter] 05/9/2022 07:46

Gas prices likely to hit new highs as Russia shuts pipeline indefinitely

[bountyhunter] 02/9/2022 18:32

Anyway we will all be rechecking that link on 1/10, maybe even the IOG BoD lol! :)

[sigma3333] 02/9/2022 18:24

Must have change two month ;-)

siggy

[bountyhunter] 02/9/2022 18:18

>> Data is updated the first working day of every month, always reported 3 months in arrears.

That's useful to know siggy saving us checking repeatedly ahead of 1/10/22.

You say 3 mths in arrears but we can already see the data for 07/22?

[sigma3333] 02/9/2022 17:52

If any of yer dabble in Norway, you can field similar field data here

hxxps://factpages.npd.no/en/field/tableview/production/saleable/monthly

siggy

[sigma3333] 02/9/2022 17:45

Data is updated the first working day of every month, always reported 3 months in arrears.
Water does four main things

1/ Provides pressure support to the gas (+ve)
2/ Capillary traps (water blocking) gas at elevated pressure (-ve)
3/ Increases the head in the well which in turn increases the abandonment pressure (-ve)
4/ May result in scale and/or salt deposition in well (-ve)

AH's team will be working hard to live with the water. What I predict is they will try to pull the wet field (Blythe ?) as hard as possible in an attempt to have the capillary trapping (2/) at as low a gas pressure as possible. They might be considering entering the wet well to gather more data. This isn't something to rush.

Probably best to relax and enjoy the high gas price.


siggy

[bountyhunter] 02/9/2022 17:08

Just tidied it up, yes worth rechecking for August data when available, potentially a very useful find if Mgmt remain stumb on the water issue. We seem to know more than they are telling us already!

[xxnjr] 02/9/2022 13:16

Thanks for link in header. Good Q. I did check if NSTA been updated the other day (it hadn't). So maybe updated yesterday? start looking again in 3 to 4 wks time????