Iog Share Discussion Threads

[ashkv] 26/8/2022 14:16

IOG Revised Guidance for H2 22 (30-50mmcf)(5700-9500 boepd)....

[jdk14] 26/8/2022 14:15

Is this another Hurricane Energy?

[ashkv] 26/8/2022 14:15

At 29p Enterprise Value including debt is approximately USD 280mn

Assuming close to the low end of revised guidance from IOG yest of 6000 barrels of oil equivalent of gas - which is trading at $400 plus in UK based on current price per Therm of 600p

55.513652248856 Therms equal to 1 barrel of oil equivalent

Price per Barrel of Gas in the UK is approx $400

Do the math... even at the low end... IOG is a cash gusher at prevailing UK gas prices... and this is prior to Southwark...


Best that this incompetent management is extinguished and IOG assets acquired by able hands...

I would gladly sell out for 40p - for a share sale in SQZ / KIST / HBR etc

[dunderheed] 26/8/2022 13:53

2165 agree fully.

[sludgesurfer] 26/8/2022 13:47

PWhite,I disagree. The water cut represents a significant and at this point unquantified threat to the company's only revenue stream. Plus they're making a hash of drilling the next. The fall is justified imo.

[guy_fawkes] 26/8/2022 13:32

If you want a laugh ring up Bacton and ask them how much Radon is in the gas that they are pumping into the Grid.

[pwhite73] 26/8/2022 13:07

The only reason why the price has collapsed is because the guidance has been revised downward. It could have been revised downward by 1 mmscf/d and the net effect on the share price would have been the same. The market doesn't like bad news and there's the old adage profit warnings like buses come in threes.

Given the potential here and the soaring price of energy the fall is overdone.

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 12:38

Who knows with this crowd lol.

[guy_fawkes] 26/8/2022 12:37

No need for radio silence they are not going to frack it. It's well and truly fracked.

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 12:30

I agree DH it is the lack of detail that is of most concern given that this issue has been ongoing for sometime now, hardly inspiring confidence leading to the conclusion that not enough has been done to date.
Analysis of the water should provide some pointers e.g. the degree of salinity.
If the issue can be resolved even if it takes a while provided that the source can be identified and a plan put in place then the shareprice could well recover, if management just maintain a radio silence until Christmas appearing to do sfa it may languish for a while.

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 12:29

this management team will probably try that then

[guy_fawkes] 26/8/2022 12:27

It is when it's full of water

[sludgesurfer] 26/8/2022 12:25

Pigging the line is nonsense.

[guy_fawkes] 26/8/2022 12:24

Someone is buying, probably a Water company or it's about to be shorted to death by Buffet or Blackrock.

[robizm] 26/8/2022 12:18

They were 6 months late.

[guy_fawkes] 26/8/2022 12:16

Someone was eager to open up the chokes and make a quick $.

[dunderheed] 26/8/2022 12:13

hpcg 2145 - I am reasonably conversant with such things - so again wtgr I ask why don't they even know which well is causing it - or both yet? It seems to have been an ongoing issue and they cut rates down some weeks ago - and that was the time to RNS about such issues IMHO?
This is my point, if they were more open about it earlier in the process, I would have more trust as a share-holder?
Ah so you are inferring that the reference to (high) saline discounts seawater - not sure of that either - but yes "probably" the case - but again we don't actually know that? It would have been nice to have had confirmation that the water ingress was specifically coming from one or both of the wells but again it doesn't sound as though they are "certain" on this issue?
Drilling fluids again wtgr - this is a known "unknown" and as they state is not uncommon in this area so why didn't they arrange "heavier" grade mud / barite (whatever) on hand on a pay as you use basis - this is the "norm" is it not?

I'm sorry whatever slant you put on it with these suggested solutions the "management" do not come out in a good light whatsoever, IMHO and as ever DYOR folks!!

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 12:07

As I indicated Buffett's interest is as detailed in the header.

[guy_fawkes] 26/8/2022 12:00

It tells you how much water is in the pipeline to Bacton since production. Shutting each well in will confirm the source.

[sludgesurfer] 26/8/2022 11:50

Pigging the line tells you nothing about the source of the problem.

[guy_fawkes] 26/8/2022 11:47

That is why they will not pig the line. Bacton will not be able to handle the increase level of incoming water.

[sludgesurfer] 26/8/2022 11:37

Having spent a larger part of my career dealing with issues like this I have some sympathy. Unfortunately my experience is that whether it's water, wax, h2s, scale, sand or other such undesirables, these issues don't tend to stop or stabilise. They get worse.At the end of the day IOG are minnows at Bacton and the owners cannot jeopardise the operation of the plant to accommodate increasing incoming water.

[ashkv] 26/8/2022 11:31

Plenty of Gas / tons of near term prospects - buyout offer incoming... silly price for IOG given where spot gas and curve is trading... bonkers...

Extinguish IOG management with a hostile take-over and snuff out this sad excuse for a company... IOG assets need an operator that is clued-in and not clueless/hapless....

[hpcg] 26/8/2022 11:27

Dunderhead - if it isn't in the horizontal then it should be an even easier fix, but it seems unlikely as salinity is presumably well above seawater. Short term just choke and or put in fluid handling of which the latter is their suggested choice. Downhole needs a workover rig so save it until the summer. I agree with them, with gas prices and the need for gas in an absolute sense short term mitigations are more appropriate than fixes that might take longer.

Drilling fluid loss - as with most opps I imagine they considered it a short term issue so lived with it for too long. If they are using a heavier mud now as one mitigation they would need to source that.

sludgesurfer - agree that plenty will not be buying until more is known on the water cut.