Iog Share Discussion Threads

[guy_fawkes] 26/8/2022 11:23

Pig the line.

[dunderheed] 26/8/2022 11:09

hpcg - you sure the ingress is on the horizontal then? Could be something really left field with this motley crew?
Any idea where or how long to take to find where on the horizontal?
What if in multiple areas?
Plug the whole well?

Drilling - totally agree but if that simple - so why all the NPT?

I know silly responses but wtgr the management here do have a habit of looking (very) "silly".

[sludgesurfer] 26/8/2022 11:02

They need to gather the info on this watercut issue asap and update the market or this will continue to get killed.

[hpcg] 26/8/2022 11:00

Buffet doesn't have a stake in IOG, Berkshire owns Cal Energy.

Dunderhead
Brine production - worst case plug one of the horizontals short.
Southwark - drill more slowly, cement more often, well bore shielding

[mikeh30] 26/8/2022 10:51

That golden cross is turning into a death cross. 22.5p is the trade level

[dunderheed] 26/8/2022 10:39

All well and good everyone but what if the "saline issue" gets worse?
What if they have no solution to the fluid losses in Southwark well and associated non productive expenses?
Just wondering like...

[ashkv] 26/8/2022 10:37

Thanks XNJR - reviewed the info... very detailed analysis by yourself.. kudos...

IMHO drop overdone... is a clear take-over target... given Gas prices... share sell off even with the water issue is overdone...

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 10:33

Doubt it as he is in via the 50:50 contractual commitment as detailed in the header.

[billybunter1970] 26/8/2022 10:32

Do we know if WB has reduced his holding on this recent news?

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 10:31

Good post Bob, yes IOG will certainly be benefitted from the excessively high day ahead price which should more than compensate for the reduced production level while the water issue is being addressed.

August 26, 2022
GAS
Day Ahead - 564.00p/th
Year Ahead - 700.34p/th
Front Quarter - 727.00p/th
Front Month - 608.00p/th

[wskill] 26/8/2022 10:27

Took another top up best call it what it was really another average down just now IOG is definitely one of the strangest oil and gas UK focused shares I have owned .

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 10:13

I wasn't expecting this to take a further pummelling this morning, especially with that golden cross having finally crossed! I had to double check it just to make sure it wasn't actually a death cross lol! 😉

[shareideas1] 26/8/2022 10:02

Irony is FinCap actually said risk to numbers post the update yesterday is still to the upside...

[hpcg] 26/8/2022 10:02

Lord Gnome - these assets are not newly discovered but pre-existing marginal fields. The economics in theory work because of the higher price of gas irrespective of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

An over reaction here now in my opinion, though I understand the trepidation where reservoirs are concerned and it certainly makes the company less valuable than if it hadn't happened. It will be just one of the wells and a short term zero cost mitigation is to choke the well in question such that the liquids come into spec. Lower production and higher cost is not a good thing.
Southwark is eating into contingency but it is normally the subsea work that delays production. So at this time I don't think Q4 is at risk but it will be much nearer the end than the beginning which is a shame.

I'll be adding soon, maybe today. Not hugely as it isn't below my basis, and I wouldn't if I didn't have more cash to deploy, but as much as anything the current price is a function of the number of trades going through and an understandable buyers strike as it is the setbacks.

[lord gnome] 26/8/2022 09:54

So at current run rates we are looking at approx £180 millions pa less opex and tax? Not bad for a company with a mkt cap of less than £140 millions.

[robizm] 26/8/2022 09:43

15 mcf is 154237 therms a day revenue is
154237 x £5 - 15p opex - 20% royalty=£598439

25 mcf is £1040000. No capex or tax included

Is this the worst it gets?

[bobgray51] 26/8/2022 09:31

Hello all, anyone know how to link gross gas production and net gas sales?

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 08:54

Yes very impressive detail!!!

I'll add that at the end of the header for future reference for those of us still here awaiting Southwark!

...added

[dunderheed] 26/8/2022 08:30

Now that's what I'm talking about!
Great detail xxnjr!

[xxnjr] 26/8/2022 08:28

ashkv - table 2.6 p44 of

[lord gnome] 26/8/2022 08:17

Rather than castigate management for the water ingress - something which I suspect could have happened in the best run companies - I would rather know more about the quality of the assets. Several comments have been made on here that they are not the best. If so, why would anyone want to buy the company?

[kibes] 26/8/2022 08:16

They are producing 20 mmscf/d from one well. It seems reasonable to assume that they will manage 30 mmscf/d when both wells are on line, although I don't have any confidence beyond that level. Still, that is a lot in the current market and should be enough to support the current share price.

[ashkv] 26/8/2022 07:55

I was fooled into dipping back into this share based on steady performance and management guidance for 2022... what a bunch of inept clueless muppets that just a short period later guidance has to be modified... hapless overpaid clowns...

[ashkv] 26/8/2022 07:54

IOG - bid be coming... 2019 RockRose bid 20p for IOG which was rejected... share dilution since then... and with number of ready prospects, Southwark coming on etc.... this is the time for an opportunistic bid... I would be much more happy with a share offer and decent management either SQZ, KIST etc... IOG management is the pits...