Iog Share Discussion Threads

[dunderheed] 27/8/2022 10:45

Ah thanks guy F - realised L was for losers - but just couldn't actually remember using that particular term?
The "management" at IOG are certainly not losers - they have done very well out of the company and getting rewarded for such low (priced AND KPI) LTIPS for their respective under-performances!
All IMHO and DYOR of course.

[anley] 27/8/2022 10:27

Sorry about the link but it does explain the water problem................

[dunderheed] 27/8/2022 10:10

Bounty - excuse my ignorance "L" word?
Remind me please.

[kibes] 27/8/2022 08:56

I had high hopes for this but since I am currently losing money on it I am looking around for another company with UK gas reserves which doesn't look too expensive. I have done extraordinarily well with Egdon and Igas both of which have quadrupled since I bought them, that is because both of them hold very large shale gas resources which could be extracted by fraccing. Serica is good but now looks too expensive for my taste. Angus Energy just coming into production but does not have large reserves. Any other ideas? I'm not really interested in large companies like BP/Shell/Centrica which never seem to go up much. Still holding some here but have reduced by half, will buy more if the news improves and the price is low enough.

[hpcg] 26/8/2022 22:41

To be honest I never look at the thumbs up / down. I don't care what people think of my comments, nor do I care what anybody else thinks of someone else's unless they have some cogent argument pro or con. The only up and down ticks that matter are our portfolio valuations.

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 20:50

Good idea slice please let us know what they say!

[dunderheed] 26/8/2022 20:42

Hpcg, 2183 ticked up, why would someone want to tick down,lol?

[slicethepie] 26/8/2022 20:17

Sorry to spoil the party but has anyone spoken to the company, I am pretty sure they don't bite ! Perhaps the horses mouth is a good starting point ....,dyor imo slice

[hpcg] 26/8/2022 18:47

Dunderhead - I'm certainly not looking to argue with you, at least not in the I'm right you are wrong kind of way. If these message boards have any value its that knowledgeable investors push each other hard on getting the valuation picture. Right now for IOG that is impossible because of the degree of variation we have in the possible outcomes. So I would argue the worst that could happen in the short term is one field is out of action. I guess that is what the H2 production range is saying with the 30 minimum estimate. That's not great obviously, and it increases risk, but gas prices are really riding to the rescue and that shouldn't be ignored.

It is difficult to call the share price too because it is tough to know what other investors think. There is at least some buying in the high 20s, and a lack of sellers any lower. It is going to be a slow ride back up as there will be more people wanting to get out at even or de-risk or whatever, and that's if the outcomes are benign. Southwark is obviously a lot less serious and I would class it of the nature of the condensate handling issue that gave such fantastic buying prices. The brine issue is a different matter.

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 17:58

All valid points the answers to which I and many others are at least partially aware of and resulting in the current level of anger and frustration here. However with the unbelievably high forward gas prices despite the modest production reduction this is clearly undervalued with the caveat that the water issue must be addressed or at least mitigated - that is the problem - any positive news on that and this will go back up, and there is still Southwark Q4 and other fields to bring online.

[anley] 26/8/2022 17:28

If you are right and that helps the price then in the mid 30's I am out.

For those of you who wish to look at management then look at the following framework:

1 Learn about the managements track record
2 Explore their returns on capital
3 Assess their attitude to shareholders
4 Dive into their incentives
5 Evaluate the board
6 Reach out to start a dialogue

I wish I had done a few on this check list and I would never have invested - its been a good lesson and I hope it helps others who post and read this B/B.

[bobgray51] 26/8/2022 17:04

There's a lot of doom and gloom floating about. Yep the share has taken a hit at the news of reduced output because of the issues mentioned... but they've revised down to 30-50 mmscf /d... not 0. Importantly management have got production online and the company is sailing with the most incredible tailwind possible with current and expected gas prices in Europe over the next 6 months. As per my previous post... looking at the worst case from their guidance figures (highest opex and lowest average production)... AND calculating using a static gas price (which again we know will increase as we go into winter), IOG is still looking at revenue of over £100 million in the next 6 months. I don't think that's a terrible position to be in for a company this size.

[bountyhunter] 26/8/2022 16:48

MM you certainly made the right decision on the day before results - I should have done the same based on the balance of probability of a negative slanting RNS going by past experience with IOG newsflow!
On the water issue given the effect this would have/has had on the share price - regardless of if indirectly it is the main cause of the drop - management at least need to give a timeline of how they plan to deal with this and more detail on the "saline fluids" such as the level of salinity for a start. They should also commit to providing regular updates on progress in identifying the source and in dealing with the issue given the level of concern. We really don't want to be waiting around for news on this or on Southwark until just before Christmas or possibly later. I'm sure that I'm not the only one who based on details posted here suspect that first gas from Southwark will drift to Q1.

[marvelman] 26/8/2022 15:35

Bounty...post 2159...very funny and sums up the disregard most of us have about this management. It goes down to the crux of it. We really cannot trust them with either the truth when it is told or its withholding when it is not. Almost every "operational update" has been negative. I hate to be out of this because I will kick myself if an offer comes in but just had enough for now and really do not know at what point the share price is worth taking a chance on. Ironically the money I re-invested by selling has already paid dividends from the O & G companies that are surging. What a missed opportunity this mob have given us.

[sludgesurfer] 26/8/2022 15:12

I'd appreciate being pointed to anything from the announcement confirming that the issue is "fixable".

[dunderheed] 26/8/2022 15:10

hpcg - I'm not looking for argument with you matey - just throwing comments back and forth.
We shall see - but I've got to admit there seems to be good value here at this price - even in current circumstances begrudgingly!

[wskill] 26/8/2022 15:06

Risk reward looks ok at 29p everything is still to play for Southwark will be onstream this year IOG might not have the best management on the planet but they get the job done in a fashion.

Cannot really blame them for the water cut its fixable.

[pwhite73] 26/8/2022 14:48

sludgesurfer - The water cut is the reason for the revised downgrade it is not the reason for the share price fall if that makes sense. All downward guidance create a disproportionate fall in the share price. The market's view nowadays is - "what other skeletons are hidden in the cupboard".

[hpcg] 26/8/2022 14:47

Dunderhead - I'm not excusing management and I'm certainly not congratulating them. I'm not really commenting on them at all to be honest. I'm more about what has happened, what could happen and what are the long term implications? 1 well is producing more revenue today than 2 wells were in June. On the other one they have a few mitigations, but frankly they could ultimately just drill another well, there's slots in the riser, or sidetrack. It possibly means their horizon or fault interpretation is wrong, so putting the seismic through the most modern least squares reverse time migration would nail it but that would be overkill for SNS where even conventional depth migration should be more than adequate.

[dunderheed] 26/8/2022 14:21

2167 - either one of that group can have my shares as well.

[ashkv] 26/8/2022 14:17

JDK14 - thankfully it is not a Hurricane Energy as has multiple fields / prospects... and ship is sailing into a rising market not the the Covid sell off and decade low brent prices that HUR had to navigate...

[ashkv] 26/8/2022 14:16

With Southwark on - boom share price doubles..