Independent Media Distribution Share Discussion Threads

[larousse] 27/2/2006 23:34

Well, this thread is two years old today - although it doesn't seem it...

What's gone is gone.

How about starting a new thread with the results tomorrow ?

[games] 26/2/2006 23:35

itv just proof testing imo, fastrax look to already be delivering both.


also fextech announced last wk going fully? digital, appears to be the way ahead.

[veryniceperson] 26/2/2006 15:48

Hi Larousse, calm down you will do yourself no good, yes still alive and kicking.

The amount of money spent on this network, I don't think we know the complexity of the system they are installing. Also while this work has been going on they still had the other part of the business to run. I know what you say about salesmen but they do tend to bend the truth now and again, but haven't we all at some time. Personally just glad to see it getting started. Think the whole thing has been a bigger headache than they thought. Its got to be a good thing to us share holders.



Come the results will be looking for a good positive forward statement.

[larousse] 21/2/2006 13:34

Thanks for that Hastings, much appreciated.

(I sit corrected)

[hastings] 21/2/2006 13:15

For what it is worth Bridgewell and Corporate Synergy both issued notes on the 17th. Very similar in expectations so probably near the mark. Both expect a small loss 100k for 2005 rising to £2.2Mln profit for 2006. That would give us EPS of 4.6p and mean we would be trading on a fwd PER of 11 at the current price. Given that the sector average is 16 then we should (providing all is positive on the TV side) be looking for a return to the 75p mark over the next 12 months.

[games] 21/2/2006 11:34

LoL, a quid it is then.............tho i would be more than happy to loose.

[larousse] 21/2/2006 11:22

I had some VTR once games - great minds think alike :)

As I said last night, what I wrote was a bit of fun (and obviously what I'd like to see) before the results in a week's time. Have to be honest, I'd forgotten about what you copied there, but we'll see - only have to wait a week now.

I'm willing to bet a quid that the sky money (on-stream well before ITV) brings us nearer to my £1m than your £250k ;)

I'm done guessing - but as only 4 of us read this thread anyway, how about a little sweep ?

You can have 0-250, Hastings 250- 500, VNP 500-750 and I'll take 750-1m ;)

[games] 21/2/2006 10:44

From the contract win last August, last two para's.


On the assumption that radio industry advertising revenues continue to remain
depressed in line with the first half and that material revenues resulting from
ITV do not commence until 2006, it is considered unlikely that IMD will achieve
a result materially ahead of break even for the current year.


IMD expects to generate substantial additional revenue from television as a
direct result of this installation. These revenues are expected to impact in the New Year.

So my penny's worth is that i doubt profits (2005) will be anywhere near 1m, 250k may be possible, the interest for me is any news of tv take up since xmas,
even tho it is a slack period.

I noticed that VTR(leeds)luckily i bought some before the rise, and await a product launch) mentioned transferring to imd a month or so back, but apart from them the tv side has been quiet in open media announcements, to the extent that it has not been possible to access the list of tv channels covered on the imd site for a few weeks now..........maybe they don't want the competition to follow their progress.

2006 should be far far better than 2005, even if tv growth is slow, just on the account of reduced capex.

good luck.

[larousse] 21/2/2006 00:17

I've got a ring around the 28th, pretty sure it's Tuesday.

As said before, any serious deviation from plan and we would have had an RNS by now - so I expect no nasties. Should be just what they forecast last time - hopefully a little better ;)

Remember this is the year end to xmas that we are waiting for, as we are now two months into what should be a very profitable (TV earnings) 2006 year.

With a recent mid price of 50p, and 33.52m shares in issue p/e is 26 on earnings of 1.9p per share (£650k).

For 2002, 2003 & 2004 turnover was 3.31, 3.43 and 3.75m.

I have to think (hope) that they broke £4m turnover with the rollout of TV in year 2005. I know the profit won't be all there, as they spent most of the money on the same rollout. By their own admission (at the interims) IMD had spent £2m on the TV rollout upto then. I realise that there will always be equipment costs, but that 2 million has to be a million a year that would otherwise have found its way into pre-tax profit - but for the TV investment.

I'm all for looking a fool with mad predictions, so, if IMD broke £4m turnover last year (with the weight towards the second half - there was nothing but spending in the first - but there should have been TV income in the second half), at the same time as they finished pouring (what would have been) profit into the rollout, then that must give us the extra £350k that we need at the bottom line for the magic million last year.

On the same multiple (26), with an eps of 3p (1m /33.52m) then a re-rating of 26 x 3 = 78p

If for the current 2006 fy, the press speculation that IMD could turn a profit of £2m comes to fruition, then even on a reduced multiple of 20, that would be 120p

There you are VNP, my psychic prediction for next Tuesday: £4m t/o £1m profit, giving us 78p this year.

P.S. To anyone other than VNP, who may mistake me for sane. I would not consider taking financial (or medical) advice from me. This is only a light hearted guess, to see how close I can get to the results on Tuesday. DYOR ect..

[veryniceperson] 19/2/2006 14:23

With the results out Tuesday or Wednesday week be interesting if there are largest trades going through. The company does have a habit springing one or two leaks (if so hope they are buys). Just my thoughts of cause.

[veryniceperson] 04/2/2006 00:01

Well that's cleared it up then.

[larousse] 03/2/2006 18:26

Ordinary trade, 80k - I think it was probably a buy. Then again...

[veryniceperson] 03/2/2006 16:43

Or was it?

[hastings] 03/2/2006 15:24

And a nice little Buy this morning,

[hastings] 18/1/2006 16:41

Well, having followed this one from the outset (chemex) i would guess that there is very much something brewing.

[larousse] 18/1/2006 09:39

Games,

I have / had no info like that - don't worry, I'm not holding back on any big secrets. Results on 28th Feb - so the ticking up price looks a bit early for leaks...

[games] 17/1/2006 21:06

L,

is it worthy of diving in yet, are the rises hinting at a positive leak.

BTW would anyone care to comment on this link.



Now i'm no expert, and have no idea if imd tech (present or planned) comes close, but have you seen the performance goal number.........nice to dream.

[veryniceperson] 16/1/2006 22:25

Something in the back of my mind tells me that maybe ITV may be going live soon, maybe TV adds revenue worked through to the balance sheet. But as you say these are all big question marks, but very exciting times ahead methinks.

Games my average is 50p will be pleased to get them back into the blue on the old portfolio.

[veryniceperson] 16/1/2006 20:47

Remember that old fisherman friend. We just have to be patient, it will all come good hopefully

[larousse] 16/1/2006 20:34

It's very odd VNP.

Going back to the 11th, there were 2 big trades:

50000 @ 42p and 97159 @ 40p

On the face of it, one buy and one bigger sell, but the price moved up, and it should have bombed with 2:1 against.

You could argue that the big trade was delayed from earlier, filled over several days, but it was flagged with an O, not a D.

So, I would say that someone bought roughly 150k on the 11th.

On the 12th, there is the usual volume – two tenths of nob all.

Friday the 13th, there are a whole raft of trades:

10000 @ 42.9
10000 @ 42.9
90208 @ 43.5
90200 @ 43.54
10000 @ 43
15000 @ 46.5

Those numbers are so similar, and the prices so steady, I'd guess they were rolls – for whatever reason, I don't think those shares changed hands – just sold & bought back instantly (2 minutes in the case of the 90k trade).

If they were all buys, the price would have gone ballistic.

Today there were quite a few "smaller" trades, but still big numbers for IMD, and they mostly looked like genuine buys.

I don't know what's going on. I'm just quite pleased that there is some interest.

I'd be inclined to ignore the numbers from Friday, but the rest might bode good news - here's hoping ;)

[veryniceperson] 16/1/2006 19:57

Keep wondering what is going on, something leaking from somewhere, got to be good in my opinion. See what tomorrow brings, RNS perhaps.