Imperial Brands Share Discussion Threads

[marktime1231] 16/5/2023 09:30

Accelerating? Hmmmmn.

[tornado12] 16/5/2023 09:09

Results pretty much in line with the plan. As mentioned playing down the debt to maintaining healthy EPS/ DPS are key factors to support future agility. The share price continues the down pressure and make more appealing to the income seeker like myself. Will add further if weakness extends. GLA

[spud] 16/5/2023 08:41

A good solid set of results. Now if they could start to pay down the growing debt mountain, that would be perfect:Imperial Brands Backs Fiscal Year 2023 Guidance After Stable Revenue in 1st HalfSource: Dow Jones News By Elena Vardon Imperial Brands PLC on Tuesday said it is on track to meet its full-year guidance as it posted a rise in pretax profit and stable revenue for the first half of fiscal 2023.The FTSE 100 tobacco group--which houses Davidoff, Gauloises and JPS among its brands--made a pretax profit of 1.44 billion pounds ($1.81 billion) for the six months ended March 31, up from GBP1.26 billion a year ago.Revenue rose slightly to GBP15.41 billion from GBP15.36 billion, with new product and market launches of next generation products boosting sales while strong pricing in tobacco helped mitigate volume declines.Operating profit--one of the company's preferred metrics--increased 28% to GBP1.53 billion from GBP1.20 billion the prior year.The board declared a dividend of 43.18 pence a share, up from 42.54 pence a year earlier."We remain on track to deliver the acceleration in adjusted operating profit growth in the second half in line with our guidance and expectations," Chief Executive Stefan Bomhard said."We expect the year-on-year effect of consumer buying patterns to normalise in the second half as we annualize the prior year Covid-related impact," he added.spud

[dmore2] 16/5/2023 07:20

lots of positive progress, drags are russia and debt went up

[fenners66] 16/5/2023 07:19

No doubt the anti-trust argument could have been used at one time about VHS and Betamax - eventually it will not matter and no one will care any more.

This is not going to be a 1-5 year plan it will take longer but with the average duration of a FTSE director about 5 years that is why they will not think ahead.

On to results , still have to read them properly but:-

"Net debt GBPm (10,239) (9,757)"
"Adjusted EPS fell -1.7% driven by higher finance costs"

So much for the buybacks! But read back through this thread I already calculated that repaying their most expensive debt would deliver a better impact on EPS !

[valuehurts] 15/5/2023 23:19

It would be great if the industry could consolidate more but due to antitrust in the states and competition law in the UK they can't. Even with the Reynolds acquisition BATS had to divest some brands that's why IMB was able to pick up Winston

[fenners66] 15/5/2023 22:49

I see that Starmer is supposedly considering NZ style ban on new (young) cigarette smokers.

It may not happen ....yet.
But the writing is on the wall.

IMB has years of profit and cash ahead of it.
But it does not have an analyst friendly growth trajectory.

Hence they should stick to their knitting , pay off the debt , grow the dividend and put together a war chest for the inevitable industry consolidation.

[spud] 15/5/2023 20:59

An incredibly low volume of shares repurchased today (16k). spud

[kiwi2007] 12/5/2023 05:55

Yes, I did say that :o)

[valuehurts] 11/5/2023 23:14

I don't think BATS are buying back shares. That is why the price has dumped...

[kiwi2007] 11/5/2023 23:06

Thanks Value Hurts - very interesting.

It managed to hold the 1860 level yesterday and there was some buying towards the end so maybe it'll level off here. But thank goodness for the buy-backs, poor old BATS having a hard time without them.

[valuehurts] 11/5/2023 22:24

Big issue now is that it's much harder to quit. Easier when everyone could smell smoke on you. Your wife, kids etc. now you can sneakily vape on your lunch break, take a lozenge at your desk and then smoke outside the pub on a Friday night claiming you only occasionally have a cigarette. It's an epidemic now and eventually big tobacco will squeeze out all the competition using regulations and state capture.

[valuehurts] 11/5/2023 22:12

I'm not arguing that smoking rates won't decline, they will. Probably be half what they are now in 15 years. Fully expect IMBs EPS to be 3/4/5x in the same time frame. EPS will grow dramatically over the next 2 years with buybacks, price increases, cost cutting etc. I expect the company will retire shares quicker than overall volume declines. The slower the volume declines the quicker the EPS growth.

[tornado12] 11/5/2023 09:56

Brought a few more today for isa divi income. GLA

[lendmeafiver] 09/5/2023 16:42

Agree completely

[lendmeafiver] 09/5/2023 14:23

Vapes haven’t been around for 30 years, there is now an alternative to smoking tobacco that is a cleaner and significantly cheaper version of the nicotine hit and is available on every high street.

[valuehurts] 09/5/2023 14:02

Same story for the last 30 years yet look at the overall profit pool and total returns. Multiples larger.

[fenners66] 08/5/2023 11:11

peter160 - yes see post 8067 above

"Buffett is often used as a justification for buybacks - he's successful and he buys back BH shares.
But rarely invests in companies that do the same and has failed spectacularly when he has. More so he likes controlling stakes so he makes the calls.

But WB is more like a retail investor - he's not a director making a decision for this year before he moves on with a bonus he's in BH for life."

Essentially Buffet is not like an ordinary company director.
No one is going to tap him on the shoulder and tell him to get out, ever.
So he is more like a retail investor , tries to buy BH stock low and increase his own interest in the company at no cost to himself. But he's been around for ever and will likely only leave in a box.

Whereas your average Plc director stays for Male 6.6 years Female 3.3 years so I guess on average about 5 years.
So what if there is no cheap stock to buyback in that time ?
Do it anyway otherwise you are just giving the bonus advantage to the next director....

[valuehurts] 08/5/2023 08:03

I can tell you vaping will not replace cigarette use. Vaping has really only increased the amount of nicotine use generally and made sure a whole generation of young people will use Nicotine all their lives. I actually think I see more young people smoking tobacco stocks recently. Anyhow if IMB can reduce its share count by half in 6-7 years that is far outpacing volume declines. Cigarettes are not VHS.

[pete160] 08/5/2023 07:12

Doesn't Buffet buy back his own stock?