Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[spmc] 21/2/2018 12:29

@hamsandwich not ramping just an analysis of the facts and figures and those happen to be the numbers that come out

[wigwammer] 21/2/2018 12:28

Squire is looking to buy your shares at a fraction of what he thinks will be their fair value. Don't let him have them. £30+ :)

[njb67] 21/2/2018 12:28

No pharma will make a bid without doing due dilligence on the phase 3 data. Those expecting a bid on the day of results or in the days following are going to be disappointed.

[hamhamham1] 21/2/2018 12:24

Spmc £28 on results day.
Top Tips £30 on results day.
Off the scale ramping there, you should have hooked a few extra buys on board. Bravo.

[top tips] 21/2/2018 12:22

This is what could be awaiting you on good results:



£50 to £100 a possibility.

[albanyvillas] 21/2/2018 12:17

yes it was good to have the 700p target yesterday

[albanyvillas] 21/2/2018 12:14

hottingup21 Feb '18 - 11:37 - 14959 of 14975
0 5 1
Vadim Alexandre
Presentation
Jul 2017

"HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta)... so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug [Lupuzor] that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment in lupus could command that price...because it already has...

...and then just in terms of pricing for the drug...Tim mentioned $20k per patient per year, that's not very expensive...Benlysta is commanding $35k per patient per year...(I am even more conservative in my model) if we have a drug that is as good or better (Lupuzor)...$40k, $50k per patient per year isn't unachievable...

...the regulatory position speaks miles...a SPA and Fast Track designation...the FDA dosn't dole these out lightly...the regulator is behind this drug...

...if the trial is successful we are going to see a re-rating of the stock price...the types of deals that are closed are not small deals ...P140 is now being shown to affect other diseases with major indications ...rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, Crohns, the list goes on and on, so a potential buyer, even 'though lupus is big enough, won't just buy it for lupus it will buy it for all these other indications as well...I definately think this stock is currently undervalued..."




lovely post


Up


Up



Up





*BANG*
500p-700p

[cockerspaniel] 21/2/2018 12:14

squire:
No, institutions are not going to sit around twiddling their fingers for weeks.

What will happen is that the company's broker will be calling its clients the moment the RNS is released.

[55nobby] 21/2/2018 12:03

If it had it would have said £100 target price.

[njb67] 21/2/2018 11:57

NY Boy
Have been advised the same - the TP note does not contain a price target.

[ny boy] 21/2/2018 11:54

Btw (FOXT) above 81p resistance , moving up nicely, no debt is supportive too.

[ny boy] 21/2/2018 11:54

Can you provide evidence that TPI came out with a 700p price target?

From what I heard it was a comprehensive broker report but no target price, of course I stand to be corrected.

Anyway the higher the better!

[hamhamham1] 21/2/2018 11:53

Lodge. Ignore me.

[hottingup] 21/2/2018 11:53

lucicavo - I need to correct you:

In 2012 GSK acquired HGSi for $3.6 billion (to obtain their 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta) giving an implied Year 2012 100% valuation for Benlysta of approx $7 billion (£5.39 billion). Phase 2b trial data for IMM's Lupuzor suggests it may be more efficaceous than Benlysta, faster acting and lack its adverse side effects. This gives a minimum implied potential takeover price for IMM's Lupuzor (on satisfactory Phase 3 results) of £5.39 billion, i.e. 3864p (£38.64) and the old 2012 figures could potentially be revised upwards + there is evidence the Lupuzor/P140 Platform could treat over 9 other high value indications including some with markets eight times larger than for lupus.

IMM also now have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 and use in the majority of autoimmune indications (e.g. Sjogrens, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn's and CIDP). A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications. This all adds to the value.

This is why people are now talking about a £50+ valuation for IMM just for starters.

P.S.
Vadim Alexandre
Presentation
Jul 2017

"HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta)... so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug [Lupuzor] that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment in lupus could command that price...because it already has...

...and then just in terms of pricing for the drug...Tim mentioned $20k per patient per year, that's not very expensive...Benlysta is commanding $35k per patient per year...(I am even more conservative in my model) if we have a drug that is as good or better (Lupuzor)...$40k, $50k per patient per year isn't unachievable...

...the regulatory position speaks miles...a SPA and Fast Track designation...the FDA dosn't dole these out lightly...the regulator is behind this drug...

...if the trial is successful we are going to see a re-rating of the stock price...the types of deals that are closed are not small deals ...P140 is now being shown to affect other diseases with major indications ...rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, Crohns, the list goes on and on, so a potential buyer, even 'though lupus is big enough, won't just buy it for lupus it will buy it for all these other indications as well...I definately think this stock is currently undervalued..."

[albanyvillas] 21/2/2018 11:52

professor bang bang11 Feb '18 - 12:56 - 13236 of 13249
0 12 3
IMM did an interim analysis during the Phase 2b Lupuzor trial, and found such a statistically significant improvement in the moderate to severe group even with a much lower number of patients, they were able to stop recruitment early (amended protocol agreed with the regulators) and begin planning for Phase 3. Its the moderate to severe group which were the ones selected for Phase 3 thus increasing the probability of a successful outcome.

Does that give me confidence in the Phase 3 ? Yes it does!

This it what we could be on for in Phase 3 and beyond, improvement rates with Lupuzor (target group):

Phase 2b at 3 months = + 67.6%
Phase 2b at 6 months = + 84.2%
Phase 3 at 9 - 12 months = + 100% ??
Follow-up at 18 month = + 100% ??

For me its not now about whether lupuzor works but just how big the improvement will be at 9 and 12 months, and in the follow-up.

N.B.
Resetting the Autoreactive Immune System with a Therapeutic Peptide in Lupus
Prof. Sylvian Muller
Lupus (2015) 24, pg 412–418

"The phase IIb trial showed that after three months of therapy (three subcutaneous injections of 200 ug peptide/patient in addition to standard of care), Lupuzor improved Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score of lupus patients under active treatment by 67.6% versus 41.5% in the placebo group (p<0.025). After three additional months of follow-up, the improvement rate was 84.2% versus 45.8% (p<0.025). The side effect profile was unproblematic and the drug was well tolerated as evidenced by a very low drop-out rate."

www.lupuzor.com/Documents/Schall%20Muller%20Lupus%202015.pdf






beautiful post

bring £10 on!!

[wigwammer] 21/2/2018 11:51

It's about anchoring. Behavioural finance. Look it up. £5 SOUNDS reasonable. £30+ IS reasonable. GLA DYOR

[wigwammer] 21/2/2018 11:49

And toptips ... "later in the year a licence partner may be announced, FDA approval gets offically granted, revenues start to come in and finally a possible buyout."

[lucicavi] 21/2/2018 11:47

che7win - 20 Feb 2018 - 17:43:17 - 14815 of 14932
Strong trial results will, of course, electrify the share price. Five years ago, in the month when Human Genome Sciences, the then US-quoted owner of Benlysta, reported success at its trials, it saw its shares rise six-fold from $2.92 to $14.69.
HGS owned 50% of Benlysta and was eventually bought by Glaxo for US$3.6bn. That compares to IMM, which is capitalised at £220m and owns 100% of the drug and has the advantage that Lupuzor is a peptide, which is cheaper to make and works quickly.



That would imply 750p on good read out


WOW 13k now worth £80k in a few weeks if its the same

No wonder turner came out with 700p target


keep reading my post and buying more

[lodgeview] 21/2/2018 11:43

MM's are going to have to let the lid off this very soon!

[lodgeview] 21/2/2018 11:40

wigwam that would make me a millionaire! ;)

[top tips] 21/2/2018 11:40

IMM shares could be £30+ on results day if good because the logical assumption would then be a takeover at £50 to £100.

[che7win] 21/2/2018 11:39

"Mendacious", that's a new word to be, pleased now that I've read this board this morning.Will try to memorise that one. Love the way that word sounds.