Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[hottingup] 21/2/2018 11:37

Vadim Alexandre
Presentation
Jul 2017

"HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta)... so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug [Lupuzor] that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment in lupus could command that price...because it already has...

...and then just in terms of pricing for the drug...Tim mentioned $20k per patient per year, that's not very expensive...Benlysta is commanding $35k per patient per year...(I am even more conservative in my model) if we have a drug that is as good or better (Lupuzor)...$40k, $50k per patient per year isn't unachievable...

...the regulatory position speaks miles...a SPA and Fast Track designation...the FDA dosn't dole these out lightly...the regulator is behind this drug...

...if the trial is successful we are going to see a re-rating of the stock price...the types of deals that are closed are not small deals ...P140 is now being shown to affect other diseases with major indications ...rheumatoid arthritis, asthma, Crohns, the list goes on and on, so a potential buyer, even 'though lupus is big enough, won't just buy it for lupus it will buy it for all these other indications as well...I definately think this stock is currently undervalued..."

[lodgeview] 21/2/2018 11:37

Once again note the 5k buys. WQ closing their short!

[lodgeview] 21/2/2018 11:36

Huge buying pressure continues...About to blow.

[squiresquire] 21/2/2018 11:31

NYBOY

Utter nonsense, 90% rise on results, are you on mushrooms. The impact will take weeks or months to factor in. Much will depend on how quickly any offer is made to IMM for the drug after positive results if indeed the drug shows positive results.

To suggest there will be an instant NEW share price for the confirmed drug is so silly and really you cannot be serious. Even with an oil discovery it takes a long time to factor in as IIs have meetings to decide on their investment, they dont just pile in with an immediate valuation as no-one will know. Time will show the valuation and when institutions buy in there will be significant rises as they anticipate their profit coming in from large Pharma offers for the shares.

A small portion of portfolio invested before results with a larger portion invested after results is the time honoured and time proven way to actually win. To suggest otherwise is simply mendacious.

[top tips] 21/2/2018 11:29

Its quite reasonable for investors to put a portion of their portfolios into IMM now if they feel the evidence indicates the Phase 3 results will be a success.

If that happens, there could be a huge re-rate upwards immediately after the results, as FDA approval would just be a formality (especially with the SPA and Fast Track status) so that value could be built-in and there is a high probability of a takeover at $7+ billion, probably $10+ billion.

[hamhamham1] 21/2/2018 11:29

The silence is almost deafening from anyone criticising blatant rampers.
(no double standards here then)

[wigwammer] 21/2/2018 11:28

"later in the year when a licence partner may be announced, FDA approval gets offically granted, revenues start to come in and finally a possible buyout..." Sounds great :)

[lodgeview] 21/2/2018 11:26

Get in folks! These prices will not hang around!

[growthinvestor2001] 21/2/2018 11:25

ashehzi - no one knows why - anyone who does is probably a lurker on this board rather than a poster. Some regular posters have suspected that it might be this short postition being unwound before the investor conference next Monday:



It could also be Turner Pope clients loading up further or it might just be starting to buy in for fear of missing out on a potential big rise on results day. Who knows - just nice its poistive for a change!

[ashehzi] 21/2/2018 11:18

Sorry guys, been asking for couple of days if you've any insight into why A trades have increased over last two days? Is it something that some investment fund/company knows something?

[growthinvestor2001] 21/2/2018 11:16

ny_boy - sorry to bring this up again but why on earth would someone buying in AFTER positive results "have missed out on 90% of the rise". You really trying to tell me that the share price will only rise another 10% from close on day 1 after results to later in the year when a licence partner may be announced, FDA approval gets offically granted, revenues start to come in and finally a possible buyout.

Come on - you must know thats not true? Such a blatant attempt to try and hurry people into buying now. I would even be so bold to say that at the end of day 1 after results that somewhat less than 50% of the eventual rise will be factored in, and thats not even mentioning other applications for the P140 platform.

[hamhamham1] 21/2/2018 11:13

ny boy. Are you saying that if I add on the morning of the p3 results (if they are good). I will have missed out on 90% of the share price rise to its highest levels?
Really?

[ny boy] 21/2/2018 11:08

With a fairly high chance of success, it’s clear the sp, cannot stay at these ridiculously cheap levels for long, as we get closer investors thinking of buying run the risk of being trapped out by rising share price into the results and then on the morning of the results, unless they are happy to buy in after 90% of the rise has taken place.

[paxman] 21/2/2018 11:00

Apart from Lupuzor and the pipeline, the CNRS connection, if it can be maintained, has to be very attractive to big pharma. It avoids the key challenge big pharma faces - Do we invest a lot in early stage research or buy small biotech at high prices when they prove the science? Sidestep this by CNRS doing the early stage research and through Immupharma work as their phase 2 and 3 developer.

[wigwammer] 21/2/2018 10:57

Multiple useful posts this morning. Shares up. Dullards and repeaters on ignore. Happy days :)

[w1ndjammer] 21/2/2018 10:51

i bought more this morning, most i have paid so far 126p

post 14927 is the abbreviated version of what was my only niggling concern

now thats sorted its blue sky all the way.........


WJ.

[lucicavi] 21/2/2018 10:50

che7win - 20 Feb 2018 - 17:43:17 - 14815 of 14932
Strong trial results will, of course, electrify the share price. Five years ago, in the month when Human Genome Sciences, the then US-quoted owner of Benlysta, reported success at its trials, it saw its shares rise six-fold from $2.92 to $14.69.
HGS owned 50% of Benlysta and was eventually bought by Glaxo for US$3.6bn. That compares to IMM, which is capitalised at £220m and owns 100% of the drug and has the advantage that Lupuzor is a peptide, which is cheaper to make and works quickly.



That would imply 750p on good read out


WOW 13k now worth £80k in a few weeks if its the same

No wonder turner came out with 700p target


On positive Phase 3 readout the order book will just clear and this will open imho at 500p and then head onto 700p

[adejuk] 21/2/2018 10:50

re dosing
i micro dose lsd and i can assure you its benefits far outweigh those of trip doses.

[growthinvestor2001] 21/2/2018 10:49

lucicavi - show me where Turner Pope put out a price target of 700p - this a quote by some random poster that claimed "his mate told him". Stop posting hearsay as fact without proof.

Lodgeview - you had a personality transplant or something - I cannot take you seriously at all!

Its an up day for the share but people on here seem to think that deserves repeat post after repeast post. Can't you all just be happy without the unrelenting ramping posts and pie in the sky estimates. Its ruins this BB :-(

[lucicavi] 21/2/2018 10:47

che7win - 20 Feb 2018 - 17:43:17 - 14815 of 14932
Strong trial results will, of course, electrify the share price. Five years ago, in the month when Human Genome Sciences, the then US-quoted owner of Benlysta, reported success at its trials, it saw its shares rise six-fold from $2.92 to $14.69.
HGS owned 50% of Benlysta and was eventually bought by Glaxo for US$3.6bn. That compares to IMM, which is capitalised at £220m and owns 100% of the drug and has the advantage that Lupuzor is a peptide, which is cheaper to make and works quickly.



That would imply 750p on good read out


WOW 13k now worth £80k in a few weeks if its the same

No wonder turner came out with 700p target

[lucicavi] 21/2/2018 10:47

If we see words like this which GW put out , this will go absolutely nuts


“We are delighted to announce positive results in this Phase 3 trial of Epidiolex in patients with Lennox-Gastaut syndrome, and particularly pleased that this result is consistent with our recent Phase 3 pivotal data for Epidiolex in Dravet syndrome. We believe that this result further demonstrates that Epidiolex offers the potential to be a new effective therapy within the field of treatment-resistant childhood-onset epilepsies,” stated Justin Gover, GW’s Chief Executive Officer. “We now look forward to advancing Epidiolex towards the submission of an NDA with the FDA in the first half of 2017.”


The difference is that TIM will say this is a market worth US$ 40 BILLION


Five minutes later the hammer will land with GSK bid at 10-20 pounds imho

[che7win] 21/2/2018 10:46

I'll get excited when this gets to 200p+ where it belongs before results.

[lodgeview] 21/2/2018 10:46

An absolutely multi billion dollar drug...

[lucicavi] 21/2/2018 10:44

yes im expecting 750p on top line myself

[ny boy] 21/2/2018 10:40

Good to see positivity around, of course if top line results & a major pharmacy tie up and Lupuzor becomes the choice of drug for most Lupus patients globally the share price can of course become £100-250+ why not, for now and just on the results if top line 400-500p for starters.

Best bag as many as you can as long as you have funds to buy them, as we get closer to results day, we will get the usual t traders piling in for a bet.

It will certainly be hotting up soon.

Just a tad sad I didn’t get a large buy order filled @ 101p, when we were flirting with the lows.

Still started buying 52p, so looking forward to the results!

I think JOG went up x 4 a while back just on a very large oil discovery, so quite likely on top line results we will do that and more on results day.