Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[money maker1] 21/2/2018 15:42

che7win excellent. So IMM probably already have big pharmas saying they are willing to pay "10 to 20 times the share price" for Lupuzor after the results.

[albanyvillas] 21/2/2018 15:42

omg its going to go through the highs

looking forward to presentation on Monday

TWO trading days to go

[albanyvillas] 21/2/2018 15:39

Commercial Potential:
It's a 'multi-billion dollar' opportunity - it is as it sounds. This could be selling in the multi-billion dollar range per year every year - and to try to illustrate that - they have a 1.5million patient range in the developed markets.



mmmmm

these dont come up often. Delicious millionaire making potential

[albanyvillas] 21/2/2018 15:37

If you wait to buy the chance is you will pay 140p tomorrow imho

[che7win] 21/2/2018 15:22

Scrutable,
If the phase 3 endpoint is met, FDA approval is more or less a formality. Those interested in Lupuzor know about it - they will move quickly IMHO:

See my chat with Tim here:



Question 12:
. On interest from other pharma.

They have had lots of interest.
Pharma companies work in a strange way. They are very risk adverse, but have a lot of cash.
Cash is not a problem for them.
What they want is good, innovative drugs, e.g. like Lupuzor.
They will know at a certain level in their company (managers) that a certain drug could make billions for them, but they won’t approach at that time to takeover before trial outcome.
If a manager did initiate a take over of a drug company before outcome known, and the drug failed, the managers would be in the firing line.
What they are prepared to do is to pay 10-20 times the share price for a company – after the trial known.
They would rather be in a position to compete with others for a drug when the outcome of a trial is known – after the event.

[che7win] 21/2/2018 15:19

che7win19 Feb '18 - 11:01 - 194 of 194 Edit
0 0 0
On IMM.L:

If IMM can be successful in bringing this drug to market, it will change the lives of Lupus patients, absolutely change their lives, it's as simple as that.

And we have the initiation of a follow up study. Which is very significant for two reasons:

1. So final assessment has finished, data is being collected and finalised, and they will have their results out by end of first quarter.
2. The unexpected news by the market - they have had a lot of requests from patients of the study and the investigators (doctors) coming back to them and saying "is it possible that we can continue using the drug"?
Patients are asking for this themselves, and doctors asking on behalf of their patients.

So what they have initiated is an open label study for 6 months - what that means is that anyone on the active/placebo is eligible for the open label study.
So IMM gets to collect more data from this study.

But clearly - something is happening, because otherwise, they wouldn't have had the requests for these patients to continue with the drug. So that's a really positive sign.

It doesn't always happen this - something is happening and it's a really good sign.
It's absolutely a positive sign - IMM didn't expect to do it, but IMM have had a number of requests that sends them a very positive message - that something is happening in the study.

If this was turned the other way around - if people were taking the drug or placebo and everyone across the study - patients/investigators were pretty ambivalent about the results and nobody was asking to stay on, that would say something in itself.

But if you turn that around, and everyone is saying "Oh, WOW!", well why would anyone ask to stay on the drug? Well, because they are feeling something, I mean, that's the obvious conclusion, so yeah, IT'S A VERY POSITIVE MESSAGE, and we're delighted frankly, ABSOLUTELY DELIGHTED.

Topline results will be delivered before the end of Q1, that's the guidance given all the way through.

The safety profile - there is two sides to a product profile:

1. The product efficacy - how well it works, that they will know when the drug is unblinded.
2. The side effects - most drugs will have side effects that go along with a drug - and when a drug gets approved, its very much that balance of risk and benefit - so is the benefit outweighing the side effects.

With Lupuzor - all the way through the studies and all the way through the phase 3 study there have seen no side effects whatsoever - it is a very benign drug, and that's just the way it works with it's influence on the immune system.

So the fact that they have no issues on safety, is very, very important.
They can only hope - and they are very confident - that the efficacy side will stand up in the same way that they have seen in previous studies - all their previous clinical studies have given them very high efficacy of the drug.

So they have ticked the box on safety - because if there was a safety issue - they would have had to have been told about it, blinded or not.

The fact is that they have had really, really good efficacy on all the studies to date which has been emphasised, or confirmed by the fact that they had lots of patients coming back and asking to continue taking the drug. It does give them a good steer.
Obviously, they can’t come back and say its 100% certain, Tim has been in the business too long to say that, but - these are all good signals - really good signals.

This is important for patients, for the company and for UK industry, it will give a boost to the whole industry.

Commercial Potential:
It's a 'multi-billion dollar' opportunity - it is as it sounds. This could be selling in the multi-billion dollar range per year every year - and to try to illustrate that - they have a 1.5million patient range in the developed markets.

And IMM own 100% of the drug.
And this drug will probably sell for $20,000 per year upwards - but let's just keep it at $20,000 per year per patient. So every 50,000 patients is $1,000,000,000 . So 50,000 patients out of 1,500,000 is not an awfully big market penetration, lol!
So, you can see how this can very quickly get into a multi-billion dollar sales, and that is very attractive from a commercial perspective, obviously to Immupharma but also to anybody who want to collaborate or partner with us on bringing this drug to market.

IMM is unique in UK - very few companies have a drug at end of phase III owned 100%, potential billion dollar sales in market place with essentially no competition.
That is the really exciting thing - that they are ticking all the boxes in terms of the market potential, the profile of the drug, lack of competition,

IMM as a company own it 100%.

Going on from here, the benefit to IMM shareholders in terms of market uplift in value to IMM in terms of this drug - is exponential potentially from where they are.

Absolutely!

[scrutable] 21/2/2018 15:15

hullo che7wyn

This is absolutely the best investment opportunity of a lifetime.

I don't think you can possibly argue that I have underplayed it - except possibly for the scenario during the first days after the announcement, during which many investors will still be rubbing their eyes with amazement and be speechless. By the time they have really absorbed the situation they may have difficulty in acquiring positions particularly with IG Index who normally block access to anything for which there is significant demand.

I did suggest the eventual value after commercialising the other indications would be $20 billion - but few investors will have the patience to see the potential maximised, which means waiting several years.

As soon as IMM have FDA approval the boardroom will be under siege

[ny boy] 21/2/2018 15:14

Exactly...just relax

[teddy boy1] 21/2/2018 15:13

Everyone just chill and enjoy the ride (upwards!)

[fullbright] 21/2/2018 15:07

Can someone remind me again, how much GSK will potentially stand to lose in sales/market share, if Lupuzor becomes the new dog on the block ?!?

The implications for GSK if another pharma picks it up too ?!?

[spawny100] 21/2/2018 15:07

Going to pop any minute imo

[hottingup] 21/2/2018 15:01

In Mar 2009, HGSi shares (on their 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta) were $0.45, becoming $3.23 (market cap $528m) early Jul 2009 just before PIII Benlysta results, $12.51 (market cap of $2 billion+) at close on results day late Jul 2009, and $34.49 ($6.46 billion market cap, as there was also some dilution) at peak in Apr 2010.

(Source: 'sicilian_kan', L-S-E, 8/7/2017)

P.S.
IMM's Lupuzor seems to be more efficaceous, faster acting, have less side effects, and be cheaper to make and sell than Benlysta, so could command even better terms in a takeover (or deals).

[lodgeview] 21/2/2018 14:54

We should be well over placing price by end of week. Maybe nearer to £2.00

[its the oxman] 21/2/2018 14:51

Pressure building as time ticks away

[top tips] 21/2/2018 14:49

100% of Benlysta would be valued at $7 billion on that basis, equating to around £40 per share for IMM's Lupuzor; and that was 6 years ago, for a drug (Benlysta) which looks inferior to Lupuzor.

[chadders] 21/2/2018 14:48

Che7, I've not got a clue about what big pharma is prepared to pay for potential these days.

Flavio, Off topic but MTFB currently accounts for about 10% of my share investments. Very positive about their prospects same as you.

[albanyvillas] 21/2/2018 14:46

As chetwin says

Strong trial results will, of course, electrify the
share price. Five years ago, in the month when
Human Genome Sciences, the then US-quoted
owner of Benlysta, reported success at its trials, it
saw its shares rise six-fold from $2.92 to $14.69.
HGS owned 50% of Benlysta and was eventually
bought by Glaxo for US$3.6bn. That compares to
IMM, which is capitalised at £220m and owns
100% of the drug and has the advantage that
Lupuzor is a peptide, which is cheaper to make and
works quickly

[albanyvillas] 21/2/2018 14:44

melt up to £10 by the time it is taken over

[che7win] 21/2/2018 14:43

Buying pressure is building, still an incredible 15p below placing price.Very disappointing so far.

[che7win] 21/2/2018 14:42

Top tips, If someone offered me £3 now I would decline.

[spawny100] 21/2/2018 14:41

Another 10p or so to £1.40 and we have a neckline for the reverse head and shoulders I've been watching develop.

[top tips] 21/2/2018 14:40

Several interested parties will already have done due diligence on the Phase 2b data and data for other indications, plus the rest of the pipeline. In that context, they could now bid on an RNS detailing headline Phase 3 results, which have to be factually correct. Also a lot pharmas do deals or takeovers on just Phase 1 or 2. Cephalon originally did a $545m deal with IMM based just on Phase 2a. Once the results are out it becomes a race among the suitors.

£50 to £100 a possibility.

[che7win] 21/2/2018 14:38

This is going to 'melt up' to 200p before results announced, new posters appearing.

[che7win] 21/2/2018 14:36

Scrutable,
Great to hear from you.

You are underplaying the upside.

30,000 employee company developed Lupuzor, it is a real product and works.

I think the phase 3 positive results risk is around 80% or more likelihood to pass.
It is safe, so it's only the efficacy that needs to mirror phase2.