Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[njb67] 22/1/2018 07:20

The sector is definitely lively. Would note that the premium is 64% above the closing price on Friday - that is relatively high for a takeover.

[dafad] 22/1/2018 07:09

Another deal in pharma sector today,wonder how much a drug with multi bbillion potential is worth based on this deal

Sanofi SA (SAN.FR) said Monday that it will acquire all outstanding shares in Bioverativ Inc. (BIVV) for $11.6 billion to expand its presence in specialty care and strengthening leadership in rare diseases.

The operation is expected to close within three months, Sanofi said.

The French company said that it will pay $105 in cash for each share. This price represents a 64% premium to Bioverativ's closing price on Jan. 19, the company said.

U.S.-based Bioverativ, which generated $847 million in sales in 2016, is a biopharmaceutical company focused on therapies for hemophilia and other rare blood disorders, Sanofi said.

"With Bioverativ, a leader in the growing hemophilia market, Sanofi enhances its presence in specialty care and leadership in rare diseases, in line with its 2020 roadmap, and creates a platform for growth in other rare blood disorders," Chief Executive Olivier Brandicourt said.

Sanofi expects the deal to be immediately accretive to its earnings per share in 2018 and up to 5% accretive in 2019. It also forecasts it will achieve return on invested capital in excess of cost of capital within three years.

"Sanofi brings proven capabilities and a global infrastructure, which we believe will help to more rapidly expand access to our medicines globally and further our mission of transforming the lives of people with rare blood disorders," Bioverativ's Chief Executive John Cox said.

Hemophilia represents the largest market for rare diseases, Sanofi said, with close to $10 billion in annual sales and 181,000 people affected worldwide.

The market is expected to grow more than 7% per year through 2022 is expected.

[volsung] 22/1/2018 05:39

Liking the vids guys :)

[supernumerary] 21/1/2018 23:44

ditto ;¬)

[l0ngterm] 21/1/2018 23:39

Sorry super that was for volsong, thought that vol might appreciated.

[l0ngterm] 21/1/2018 23:38

For the trollsololo..https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=t6FUR_nhGX8

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[lukead] 21/1/2018 22:08

Remark, you do yourself no favours, with your nonsense 1 liners, but I'll say you will not change, it's your way.

[tjbird] 21/1/2018 21:04

top tips21 Jan '18 - 20:31 - 10439 of 10441
0 8 2
Just for Lupuzor treating lupus:

50,000 patients at $25k pa = $1.25 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $25k pa = $2.5 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $25k pa = $3.75 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $25k pa = $6.25 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $25k pa = $12.5 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $25k pa = $18.75 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $25k pa = $25 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $25k pa = $31.25 billion pa revenue
1,500,000 patients at $25k pa = $37.5 billion pa revenue




Omg this could take off to 100 pounds

One share you could retire on

[aimingupward2] 21/1/2018 20:51

mm1 - why do you opt for a share value of 7 times sales?

Also you seem not to understand what ‘exponential’ means.

[obiterdicta] 21/1/2018 20:50

If you read the phase 2 results carefully one of the SLEDAI indicators was arthritis,those suffering from lupus can become arthritic. For responders to luzupor amongst the phase 2 group, the arthritis improved. Make of that what you will.

OD

[top tips] 21/1/2018 20:31

Just for Lupuzor treating lupus:

50,000 patients at $25k pa = $1.25 billion pa revenue
100,000 patients at $25k pa = $2.5 billion pa revenue
150,000 patients at $25k pa = $3.75 billion pa revenue
250,000 patients at $25k pa = $6.25 billion pa revenue
500,000 patients at $25k pa = $12.5 billion pa revenue
750,000 patients at $25k pa = $18.75 billion pa revenue
1,000,000 patients at $25k pa = $25 billion pa revenue
1,250,000 patients at $25k pa = $31.25 billion pa revenue
1,500,000 patients at $25k pa = $37.5 billion pa revenue
2,000,000 patients at $25k pa = $50 billion pa revenue

Then add in revenues for the P140 platform treating 9+ other indications, including arthritis which has an even bigger market (the world's best selling drug is for rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn's, at $16 billion pa). Several immunology drugs are among the top selling (and we don't have the adverse side effects):





Its so easy to get past £100 a share or even £200 !!!!!!!!!

[money maker1] 21/1/2018 20:23

If Tim McC is saying multi-billion dollar sales for Lupuzor (and he is the one who knows more about it than anyone else here) which we take as being a minimum of $2 billion pa, that gives a company valuation of $14 billion or £80 a share. The figure is even higher if we assume $3+ billion, and so on, etc. He also used the term "exponential" growth in the value of IMM, which is a lot more than just doubling - more like doubling every day.

[aimingupward2] 21/1/2018 19:58

‘Multi billion’ and ‘exponential’ are exciting prospects and they may seem, to some, like ‘hype’. There are very few companies whose prospects you could apply those words to but I am prepared to accept that wording as true and that IMM’s prospects are better than most - and by a long way. Which other companies share price, tell me, can confidently be expected to grow faster than IMM over the next 2-3 years?

However, 2-3bn could quite properly be called ‘multi billion’ and ‘exponential’ just means growing at an increasing rate. It takes no account of the time scale over which anything meaningfully large will occur.

So it seems likely to me that we will see a doubling, or more, of the share price by the time the clinical trial results are published and we begin to see what emerges from the various discussions that are taking, and will take, place with other companies. Longer term, albeit exponential, growth may take several years to bring in substantial profits.

[jp1962] 21/1/2018 19:46

In all fairness to him new comers and recent investors would appreciate his post

[wllmherk] 21/1/2018 19:36

Try the filter button gents,

wllm

[qazwsxedc69] 21/1/2018 19:18

Because he is ramper, whose behaviour has sadly driven many of the LTH's and more sane and insightful members away.....

[jbjb9] 21/1/2018 19:06

Why do you keep posting the same thing?

[hottingup] 21/1/2018 18:43

Tim McC makes it pretty clear:

1) Lupuzor could benefit 'millions of patients' and make 'multi-billion' $ sales.
2) The current market capitalisatrion of the company (£200m - £250m) is 'tiny' in pharmaceutical terms.
3) The benefit to IMM shareholders in terms of uplift in value of the company based on this drug is 'exponential'.


Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman) Two Interviews, 18/1/2018:

"I am really excited that in a relatively short period of time, we could have a drug [Lupuzor] on the market which would benefit literally millions of patients across the world for a condition for which they havn't had an effective treatment ever...

...to be a relatively small UK company, sitting here as we do with this late stage product, owning 100% of it, from a commercial perspective that's really exciting as well because this is potentially a multi-billion dollar drug...this is definately going to be a product which will sell in the multi-billion dollars per year...

...we [IMM] are still only valued at £200 - £250 million. In pharmaceutical terms and the prospect of this drug, that is absolutely still very tiny when you consider the potential of this drug...There are a number of discussions going on...so its exciting on a number of fronts."

6 min 45 sec:


"This [Lupuzor] could be selling in the billions of dollars per year, every year...We are ticking all the boxes in terms of the market potential, the profile of drug [Lupuzor] the lack of competition, we as a company own it 100%, so going on from here, the benefit to our shareholders in terms of the uplift in value of IMM based on this drug is exponential potentially..."

27 min 2 sec:

[arcadian] 21/1/2018 18:39

Immune systems and deficiencies seem to be very popular at the moment. The STimes carries two articles today:-

one involving Strimvelis and gene therapy and the other Car T treatments mentioning

Juno Therapeutics, Novartis and US Gilead which paid $10 billion for Kite Pharma`s Car T work.

There will be a lot here familiar with all this but do either weaken IMM`s contribution or reduce its market potential?