Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[adejuk] 19/1/2018 14:06

>best
really not so
placebo effects can be profound
in a double blind lsd trial - when such things were legal - placebo peeps had amazing trips !

[hjs] 19/1/2018 14:04

worth listening to this....I am not sure if this has been put on IMM board.
hxxps://goo.gl/1BxY5e

[allonblack] 19/1/2018 14:01

I reckon Its becoming more likely that we are under written by a GSK take out at £500m. Its very unlikely the results are worse than Benlysta. So the min rev forecast is probably around £250m. To save face and competition Glaxo will have to bid. Problem for them is Dimitri has said in public that its one thing being offered £300m which he wouldnt consider and being offered £5bn which he would. The latter is clearly going to require good data.

[mad foetus] 19/1/2018 14:00

Agree with that sportbilly. The risk/reward here meant that I topped up this morning. It's only about 3% of my portfolio, because there is still risk here, but if things come off, it will multibag. I like those odds.

[njb67] 19/1/2018 13:56

Best/Long

Fair points.

GL

[sportbilly1976] 19/1/2018 13:51

Imo we'll see a further rise into the close...the trial and Tim' interview could well be covered in some of the Sunday's review and business pages...

[l0ngterm] 19/1/2018 13:49

Add to the mix x amount of patients would of completed the trial earlier last year. Thus not taking lupuzor for a significant period of time, and seeing the short to medium impact of not doing so. This in turn could have triggered the demand. Either way I can only see the extension as positive, at this point in time.

[miavoce] 19/1/2018 13:32

I think we can assume from the extension that a lot of patients felt significant improvement. Clearly we don't know whether the improvement was caused by Lupizor or the placebo but I know where my money would be on that one.

[best1467] 19/1/2018 13:31

As I've said before forget the double blind patients will have taking the equivalent of placebo and therefore will be fully aware if they have received something different based on symptoms, and on that basis it's a massive positive that they have requested along with physicians to continue treatment.

[njb67] 19/1/2018 13:26

metis

If the blind is broken, then I agree that the uptake data becomes a much more useful indicator for us.

Someone posted on here yesterday - (Spawny 10058) - that patients will remain blinded to the phase 3 treatment. If this is the case, then I am not sure we can read to much into the take up in the extension study. Incidentally, given the time it would take to recruit, we will likely have the phase 3 data first.


hot
I heard what he said, I just do not believe you can draw that conclusion from the requests, as per original post.

We will soon know.

ATB

[lukead] 19/1/2018 13:23

So good to have this second trial, which has nothing to do with phase 3Patients and medical asking for it makes it a double whammy. And unexpected. You would be asking for more only if it worked (in the majority of cases) I bet the Mauritius patients are first are among the first to request. The IMM guy can not say anything outright, but he must have a good idea of how things went and by the way he spoke on the interview's I got the impression that phase 3 was a success in efficacy and the no side issues , from the way he spoke, without actually saying, he could not hide his excitement . PS someone posted a message from a poster on the LSE IMM BB last evening. It was a good post and I would suggest that people on here look on that site and see at the poster's messages. They are well worth a read, as this guy seems extremely knowledgeable , a good rival to Nobby gnome, njb67 ,in particular should check the postings,

[spawny100] 19/1/2018 13:17

metis20 - no the patients will still be blinded at this stage so will not know what they had been receiving in the P3 trial. Tim said in interviews yesterday that the double blind would remain in place.

[metis20] 19/1/2018 13:08

As I understand it, as IMM moves into the open label study, the patients will be asked if they would like to know whether they have been receiving the placebo or Lupuzor. If they say that they would like to know, then having been told which arm of the trial they were in, they will then be given the option of joining the open label study in which they will receive a monthly dose of Lupuzor - that will include those who were given the placebo in the phase III trial.

Am I correct, or do we not yet know how IMM will proceed?

"Separately, following requests from both Investigators and patients involved in the Phase III study, ImmuPharma is initiating a "follow-up" study permitting eligible patients from the completed Phase III study, to receive Lupuzor™ (plus "Standard of Care") for a further six months in an open-label scheme. The results will be gathered as an "extension" open label study, independent of the pivotal Phase III trial which is now completed."

[njb67] 19/1/2018 12:58

cyberbub

I would expect a high percentage to ask for Lup, give the lack of alternative treatments.

Need to remember that patients are still blind to their treatment. If a patient did well in the trial, they would likely assume it was due to Lup and would want to continue. If they did not, then they would likely assume that they were on placebo, so will ask for Lup.

I think this patient demand thing is a bit of a red herring. I am not sure it tells us anything about Lup.

[chalky230] 19/1/2018 12:53

Is there a possibility someone could come in and bid for this prior to results ?

ie 1 billion now and certain amount on a successful outcome to the trial ?

Has that been known or is this just going to play out until the end

[aussieb3] 19/1/2018 12:49

Why this gone down in last half hour with all them buys mm are playing games once again

[che7win] 19/1/2018 12:37

Nice one NY Boy.

[kensingtoncourt] 19/1/2018 12:27

hottingup
19 Jan '18 - 09:04 - 10236 of 10286

Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman) 18/1/2018

6 min. 45 sec.


"I am really excited that in a relatively short period of time, we could have a drug [Lupuzor] on the market which would benefit literally millions of patients across the world for a condition for which they havn't had an effective treatment ever...

...to be a relatively small UK company, sitting here as we do with this late stage product, owning 100% of it, from a commercial perspective that's really exciting as well because this is potentially a multi-billion dollar drug...this is definately going to be a product which will sell in the multi-billion dollars per year...

...we [IMM] are still only valued at £200 - £250 million. In pharmaceutical terms and the prospect of this drug, that is absolutely still very tiny when you consider the potential of this drug...There are a number of discussions going on...so its exciting on a number of fronts."

Another interview on same day:



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top tips
19 Jan '18 - 10:18 - 10250 of 10286

Tim McCarthy said this yesterday:

"...we [IMM] are still only valued at £200 - £250 million. In pharmaceutical terms and the prospect of this drug, that is absolutely still very tiny when you consider the potential of this drug..."

If "tiny" equals 2.5%, that suggests at least another 40x upside, so a £60 - £70 valuation looks about right.

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stealth wealth
19 Jan '18 - 10:27 - 10251 of 10286

The more I find out about Luupuzor and the P140 platform, and sales of some immune system drugs, the more I realise it might eventually achieve sales perhaps $10 billion pa or more.

Abbvie’s Humira (adalimumab) for arthritis sold over $16 billion in 2016 !!!!



We already know an analyst previously said they understood IMM's Phase 2 Lupuzor trial resolved all the arthritis measures.

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hottingup
19 Jan '18 - 10:45 - 10259 of 10265

stealth wealth - IMM's Lupuzor and other treatments derived from IMM's P140 platform (there are at least nine and the list is growing) could probably attract revenues of $15 billion+ based on what Abbvie, Amgen/Pfizer, J&J and others have achieved for immunology drugs, even with side effects which we lack.



Add in IMM's other blockbusters in the pipeline - Nucant & URELIX, and it soon mounts up.

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spmc
19 Jan '18 - 11:45 - 10268 of 10284

Tim said in the interview:
"I am really excited that in a relatively short period of time, we could have a drug [Lupuzor] on the market which would benefit literally millions of patients across the world for a condition for which they havn't had an effective treatment ever..."
So he's saying the drug if approved will be taken by millions of people, I better adjust my forecasts I was assuming a few hundred thousand at best. If 2 million people take it at $35k each pa that's $70 billion pa in revenue, a 35% royalty on that will give us $24.5 billion. put that on a normal p/e of 15 gives us a market
cap of $367 billion or £2,006 per share wow :)

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top tips
19 Jan '18 - 12:07 - 10276 of 10284

Lupuzor is one of those products where, if they lower the price, it could increase the number of lupus sufferers who use it. So if instead of $25k to $35k pa, it was marketed at $20k pa, take-up could be 1.5+ million = $30 billion pa sales.

Think of 9+ indications, not just lupus, and the potential is huge (even bigger for arthritis).

[homebrewruss] 19/1/2018 12:26

spawny - agree

[ny boy] 19/1/2018 12:22

Che..I have been adding IDP too


Here, chart resistance is 190p, a break and a close above, will indicate a move to around 215p

[spawny100] 19/1/2018 12:15

cyberbub - I don't think a rate of 80-90% or so necessarily DOES imply that the people on the placebo were getting some benefit. If I was on the trial I'd be asking for lupuzor regardless of how I had got on on the trial (assuming no side effects). For example if i had had no benefits but no side effects then I would guess that I had been on the placebo so would want to try the drug. This is perhaps the reason that they are not releasing figures for the number gone into the open label trial?

[spawny100] 19/1/2018 12:12

I can see this flying past £2 this afternoon. Not based on anything other than a gut feeling.

[cyberbub] 19/1/2018 12:12

Surely the question we need an answer to is "What percentage of the Phase 3 trial participants have requested the medicine as a follow-on?" ?

What we don't want to hear is, say, 80-90%. That would mean *by definition* mathematically that the majority of the placebo recipients are also asking for a follow-on, ie. that they are imagining some efficacy. In this case the topline results will likely be negative as they will not show a big enough difference from placebo.

The other way round doesn't work, e.g. if we heard that 40-60% were asking for follow-on - because there's no way of knowing the placebo/active split.

But at least if we found a very high %age that would be a vital 'sell signal'?

Can anyone manage to find out this information?

No advice intended etc.

[hamhamham1] 19/1/2018 12:12

If there's about 132.5m shares in issue.
If directors and ii's hold about 65% combined.
That by my calculations mean there are only about 46m shares held by the rest.
Not an awful lot really?

[che7win] 19/1/2018 12:11

I'm buying here and IDP today.

I posted an evaluation on IDP this morning on that board - it looks ridiculously cheap as a GARP stock.