Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[hamhamham1] 20/1/2018 14:48

Just to confirm they trade under this well-known name:

[...]

They do all types of trading inc spreads/cfd

[...]

Like njb67 says, it could be they taken a lot of long spreads on imm and have backed off they liabilities, like amy bookie would.
Anyway, they have shares and can sell as many as they like at any time.
Won't affect the overal imm outcome but could make for a bumpy ride if they bought for other reasons.

[rabito79] 20/1/2018 13:59

I believe he meant that those who have responded to the treatment and had a break offer a further opportunity to assess the differences on and off the drug. That is if they returned to their baseline symptoms and how the drug compared in the second period of dosing. It would be a further confirmation of the drug working in that particular patient.

[ytsa2] 20/1/2018 12:47

I read NKBOTS post on LSE as follow that thread, but could not really grasp what exactly he was saying. The patients who had not had drug for ayear, being a control etc
If u understand what the post meant are u able to summarise.
Thought about topping up on friday, but didnt in the end. Surprised share price did not rise further. Whats holding it back.? MMs, and why

[hottingup] 20/1/2018 12:19

Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman) Two Interviews, 18/1/2018:

"I am really excited that in a relatively short period of time, we could have a drug [Lupuzor] on the market which would benefit literally millions of patients across the world for a condition for which they havn't had an effective treatment ever...

...to be a relatively small UK company, sitting here as we do with this late stage product, owning 100% of it, from a commercial perspective that's really exciting as well because this is potentially a multi-billion dollar drug...this is definately going to be a product which will sell in the multi-billion dollars per year...

...we [IMM] are still only valued at £200 - £250 million. In pharmaceutical terms and the prospect of this drug, that is absolutely still very tiny when you consider the potential of this drug...There are a number of discussions going on...so its exciting on a number of fronts."

6 min 45 sec:


"This [Lupuzor] could be selling in the billions of dollars per year, every year...We are ticking all the boxes in terms of the market potential, the profile of drug [Lupuzor] the lack of competition, we as a company own it 100%, so going on from here, the benefit to our shareholders in terms of the uplift in value of IMM based on this drug is exponential potentially..."

27 min 2 sec:

[lukead] 20/1/2018 12:08

It is a pity that the original set up poster for this thread ie Sicillian_Kan has deserted his own thread, for whatever reason. If he had still been here, he could have incorporated these recent interviews in the heading. Or is that down to anyone to do?

[lukead] 20/1/2018 12:04

I mentioned this before, poster on LSE, under is what he had to say on the last RNS. Looking back over NKOTBUK'S postings, he seems to be in the profession and knows what he is talking about.

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

NKOTBUK
Posts: 28
Off Topic
Opinion: No Opinion
Price: 168.50
View Thread (7)

open label ph3 extension
Thu 19:51

this is obviously very good news, but I have to say I don't buy for one second that "this came as a total surprise to the company". The plan has been in the drawer from day one and needed only the slightest nudge to get out of it. I have no doubt that the "demand" was there, but the "supply" also. Don't get me wrong, it is a good thing that the company hadn't mentioned it so far. I'll explain in a minute.
Why is it not a surprise ? Because there is a precedent ! Back in 2010, when Cephalon was preparing their own ph2 (the screwed one with the wrong excipient !), the open label extension was announced almost at the same time. The FDA trial records are quite clear on that point. Both original RCT ph3 trial (6 months) and open label extension (12 months) were posted in 2010.
hxxps://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/results?cond=&term=CEP-33457&cntry=&state=&city=&dist=
So why is this good ? For starters it works, if not for all patients, at least for a large majority of patients. That's the argument made by McCarthy but it is not the only one. It is as he rightly says, one more proof that Lupuzor is 100% safe. For a compound that is going to be used for the rest of your life, that is vitally important. Lupuzor has never been tested for so long in man, 18 months for the active arms. Cephalon terminated the extension trial shortly after the 6 months read-out and Immupharma in their own ph2b never treated longer than 3 months (3m active but 3 months follow up). From 3 to 18 months, that's a big jump, very very valuable from the standpoint of regulators. And this data will have matured and be available to the FDA upon filing. But not only safety data can be extracted from the extension. The first few patients who got randomized, that's back in early 2016, went off the drug early 2017. That's almost 1 year, how about that for a wash out period ! These patients can almost be considered as their own control ! Super cool. We'll also get a better sense of the absolute level of the plateau and the latency of the treatment post interruption. Also it means that their commercial readiness is well advanced (you need 100% of the stuff you used in the first part of the trial). We as investors might even feel more confident about efficacy before the readout, the highest the participation rate (if this gets communicated, which I doubt to be honest). And last but not least, by announcing the extension only now, they haven't introduced an upward bias in the placebo effect. All of this is almost too good to be true. See you in 4 to 6 weeks time for the primary endpoint read out, Enjoy.

[flavio_monteiro] 20/1/2018 11:54

A stop order is a Market Order and that market makers can see your order. These orders can be seen on only Level 2 platform.

I NEVER use stops. Just work out your risk profile on any stock, write down when you will exit and stay disciplined.

The market will take out your stops and most times rebound!

[hamhamham1] 20/1/2018 11:54

You can get a glimpse as to what they do from their accounts on

[njb67] 20/1/2018 11:46

ham

It could be that II are covering their net long positions by purchasing/holding the underlying stock, which they would sell as and when their clients close out the long positions. You would need to check how they manage risk as a business.

I do not believe that individual companies explicitly share client information, including where they have placed the stops with market makers. That would break disclosure rules surely? They will though know that PIs use spread betting to leverage their position, will often use stop losses on their positions and that these are on average x% below the current share price I would imagine that they drop the price until there is a flurry of sales rather than knowing what price they need to achieve.

[stanman] 20/1/2018 11:38

I am no expert on patents & patent law but with regard to Lupuzor and cancer I wondered what the patent situation was for that potential use and then also about patents that are operational in general for Lupuzor. A quick search revealed -http://www.google.com/patents/WO2016192819A2?cl=enThis seems to cover for starters 1) a range of autophagy-mediated auto-immune diseases. 2) various biochemical modifications of the peptide other than the phosphorylation of serine (P140). But possibly not 'cancer' in its broadest sense. Are there other patents here that are relevant?Do the patents apply worldwide?Any views, anybody?

[hamhamham1] 20/1/2018 11:25

Regarding spread/cfd and stop losses.
I would be interested in seeing why this company has such a large amount of shares, if they run spread/cfd site then they could sell millions at once if they want to play games, what do others think their reason for owning is?
Interactive Investor Trading 4,900,367 shares 3.70%

[rossy73] 20/1/2018 11:15

On the 15% guaranteed stop offered by ig discussion, the stops on leveraged positions - either cfds, spread bets et al are known to the mms.When these kind of companies offering gambling products were first introduced here they had no kudos/presence or ability to achieve a good deal/tight spreads when executing trades on behalf of their clients. Over the years this relationship has changed as they've become more respected - pretty much down to the volume of business they execute, and they get better execution across all the asset classes they cover. In return they scratch the mms's backs by keeping them in the know of where stops are placed. Everyone has their way to trade leveraged positions. My view on it is whenever a provider offers you a guaranteed stop at 15%, place yours at circa 25% or wider. More often than not at the guaranteed stop level you'll get stopped out on an mms driven stock as they know exactly where you've placed that. Just a little friendly advice. I'm feel very confident Imm is going to be a proper multibagger. My advice to anyone interested is that using guaranteed stops - be aware the mms have the potential to use the full gamut of dirty tricks they have at their disposal to relieve you of your stock

[metis20] 20/1/2018 10:45

interview starts at 27:01 32:14 – had a lot of requests from patients and investigators to ask if it is possible for the patients to continue using the drug –
38:10 – 1.5 mn patients in the developed pharmaceutical market – lupuzor probably sell for £20k per annum per patient – every 50k patients is a billion dollars

[darcy1] 20/1/2018 10:15

great interview with Tim McCarthy on Vox, he sounds more confident than ever.

[rabito79] 20/1/2018 08:48

Quant, I did exactly the same thing when the price was around 190. Unfortunately one of my positions had a stop at 148 and this got taken out recently. Happy with remaining positions though and looking forward to results.I understand he is not exactly impartial but some of the chairmans comments regards 'definitely being a multibillion drug' do get me a tad excited.

[hamhamham1] 20/1/2018 08:47

Ahh, my bad, would be interesting.

[flavio_monteiro] 20/1/2018 08:45

Ham...I know about the Imm nucants. Been invested in Imm since 2010.

This was an interesting article and it’s targets Autopharge..

[hamhamham1] 20/1/2018 08:37

Flavio. See Nucants.

[flavio_monteiro] 20/1/2018 08:26

Could our P140 treat cancer?

Our P140 targets Autophagy.....

Autophagy sustains pancreatic cancer growth through both cell autonomous and non-autonomous mechanisms

Annan Yang, Grit Herter-Sprie, Haikuo Zhang, Elaine Y. Lin, Douglas Biancur, Xiaoxu Wang, Jiehui Deng, Josephine Hai, Shenghong Yang, Kwok-Kin Wong and Alec C. Kimmelman
DOI: 10.1158/2159-8290.CD-17-0952

ArticleFigures & DataInfo & Metrics PDF
Abstract

Autophagy has been shown to be elevated in pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PDAC) and its role in promoting established tumor growth has made it a promising therapeutic target. However, due to limitations of prior mouse models as well as the lack of potent and selective autophagy inhibitors, the ability to fully assess the mechanistic basis of how autophagy supports pancreatic cancer has been limited. To test the feasibility of treating PDAC using autophagy inhibition and further our understanding of the mechanisms of pro-tumor effects of autophagy, we developed a novel mouse model that allowed the acute and reversible inhibition of autophagy. We observed that autophagy inhibition causes significant tumor regression in an autochthonous mouse model of PDAC. A detailed analysis of these effects indicated that the tumor regression was likely multifactorial, involving both tumor cell intrinsic as well as host effects. Thus, our study supports autophagy inhibition in PDAC may have future utility in the treatment of pancreatic cancer and illustrates the importance of assessing complex biological processes in relevant autochthonous models.

[quant_investor] 20/1/2018 08:16

There will likely be a number of flash crashes prior to trial results.

The question is how low could they drop it (albeit just for a few seconds?)

I think the answer is likely 'further than you think'. Liquidity permitting having some buy orders in much lower than the current share price could prove yo be quite an opportunistic move (though It might be prudent to cancel them once results are imminent!).

I actually realised profits on around 10% of my positions yesterday to enable me to drop my stops even further on the remainder.

Having a guaranteed stop with IG is great. However it's a bit frustrating there is a fairly hefty margin requirement for my positions where the stop less exceeds my entry point as is impossible for me to make a loss (even after allowing for the 3% charge)

Can't complain as the stop facility means is now pretty much a one way bet

[kevinjwsmith] 20/1/2018 08:14

Careful using stops
I lost 15k of these using a stop when price was bobbing around 96-100p, was going away for the day and put a portion on stoploss at 82p not really thinking it would
get triggered, just for peace of mind. Found later that stop had been triggered and when I checked the chart found that the MM's had dropped the price sharply once that day to take my shares.
I waited a few days to see if I could get them back, not a chance, ended up getting some in the 120's and again 150's - cost me a lot more and learned a costly lesson with stops.