Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[hamhamham1] 19/1/2018 06:59

In case anyone missed Dr Robert Summer's comments yesterday...
Commenting on the trial update, Robert Zimmer (MD, PhD), President & CSO said: “We are delighted to announce this major milestone for ImmuPharma in having completed on track this pivotal Phase III trial for Lupuzor™.

“I would like to take this opportunity of thanking all of our Clinical Investigators; Simbec-Orion, our clinical research organisation and the ImmuPharma France team led by Dr Fanny Valleix, Head of Clinical Research. All were paramount in the execution and completion of this trial.

“With the continued robust safety achieved over this trial, we look forward with continued confidence to reporting top line results of the study this Q1 2018.”

[happyman7] 19/1/2018 06:50

Just with reference to the PG thing, the following from a well thought of poster,

"As a reminder, Panmure handled the Feb 2016 financing at 26p, from there it went all belly shape between them and the company. That's a fact, as I heard about it from a Panmure source. Between a desperate attempt to generate some flow on the selling side (how brilliant are we, getting you in at 26p and out at 180p ?) and a last ditch disgruntled banker middle finger posture, I can't tell"

[wossupsa] 19/1/2018 06:35

A £100m fundraise? Cant see that at all or anywhere near it? Who wrote this 'elusive' PG sell note, the Scarlet Pimpernel, lol?

[bobs good eye] 19/1/2018 06:19

Yep, 20% stops on IG. Notice how the price was dropped from £1.92 to £1.50 recently. MMs are well aware of this.

[ashes2ashes] 19/1/2018 05:02

Only just joined this discussion board & have done so because of the depth and breadth of the contributions. Some comments; I think recent relative weakness is probably down to the Panmure Gordon sell note of 8 Jan - so on yesterday's announcement there were weak holders selling into strength. What i do not know is the detail of Panmure's arguement. Tim Metcalfe's comments are certainly bullish - not convinced that he shouldn't have been a little more circumspect at this stage but a big positive nonetheless. The trial results will, i think, be almost two sets of results given the large patient population from Mauritius who may have somewhat different characteristics. My valuation forecasts are a little more cautious than many - on highly positive results i would expect a fundraise of circa £100m to take the drug forward & prepare for RA etc trials - this would demonstrate the ambition. Partners will be in the wings - suitors will be hovering. I can see potential for a medium term cap of some $2.5 billion but of course could conceivable be greater. Of course, if the trial results are hopelessly confused or inconclusive the downside is also significant.

[ashes2ashes] 19/1/2018 05:01

Only just joined this discussion board & have done so because of the depth and breadth of the contributions. Some comments; I think recent relative weakness is probably down to the Panmure Gordon sell note of 8 Jan - so on yesterday's announcement there were weak holders selling into strength. What i do not know is the detail of Panmure's arguement. Tim Metcalfe's comments are certainly bullish - not convinced that he shouldn't have been a little more circumspect at this stage but a big positive nonetheless. The trial results will, i think, be almost two sets of results given the large patient population from Mauritius who may have somewhat different characteristics. My valuation forecasts are a little more cautious than many - on highly positive results i would expect a fundraise of circa £100m to take the drug forward & prepare for RA etc trials - this would demonstrate the ambition. Partners will be in the wings - suitors will be hovering. I can see potential for a medium term cap of some $2.5 billion but of course could conceivable be greater. Of course, if the trial results are hopelessly confused or inconclusive the downside is also significant.

[chalky230] 19/1/2018 00:58

lodgeview ..I think they were meaning it was only 20 % on the upside too

[lodgeview] 19/1/2018 00:50

I have 6500 shares in IMM and am holding in an ISA so I am very excited about what this could become should Lupuzor be a success after the blinded trial. Interesting post that says IG offer a 20% guaranteed stop loss on IMM. If it isn't a success we know the share price will tank and I would have thought a lot more than 20%. What are people's thoughts on this? Seems a no brainer to spread bet this with the guaranteed stop loss in place?

[davew28] 18/1/2018 22:36

Good news day again for us holders.

I'm sure the key thing when they get to negotiating with potential suitors is that Lupuzor isn't just a drug.

It encapsulates a methodology.

Immunity modulation against the rest of the market, Immunity suppressant.

There's nothing out there or in the pipeline of drugs (that I know of) that works in the same way.

Immunity modulation, completely safe no side effects (that we know of)and the modified immune system does the work. Cancer research seems to be going along similar lines.

Immunity suppression, lots of side effects, safety issues and often working against normal body immunity

Safe and efficacious together and easily infused and cheap to produce. Can this be bettered by any drug out there or even in the throws of late stage development for auto immune conditions? Not that I know of.

Any suitor (if that's the way it goes) will know that this drug will dominate, hence (I suspect) Tim's references to this drug being multi billion dollar sales

Assuming good levels of efficacy, this drug will capture huge markets for auto immune conditions.

Let's hope we get the good news soon and then suffers and investors together can celebrate.

[che7win] 18/1/2018 22:28

Yes, awesome post by NKOTBUK over on LSE

[l0ngterm] 18/1/2018 22:25

Until today, then u can run reports on on all data collected. Alternatively the lead researcher and data analysts will see patterns developing. They can only assume which is placebo vs treatment. However if glaring obvious then they can draw conclusions.

[cyberbub] 18/1/2018 22:12

Surely the point of a blind study is precisely that no one (including the researchers) knows the results of any part of the study until the whole is complete? Otherwise the potential for clinical bias, or stock market insider trading, would be obvious!

[opodio] 18/1/2018 22:05

.


















Given that in September, one in four of Lup phase3 trial patients had completed the trial, i think they already have a good clue from those 50 patients that the results will be good


by october two in four hadf completed and by november three in four, they will know what the results are already from the first 100-150 certainly

[cyberbub] 18/1/2018 22:02

Just been looking back over the RNSes. .. the Lupuzor Phase 2b was completed in 2009!! Jeez some people have been very very patient with this share...

[divmad] 18/1/2018 21:48

Good reflective post on today's rns, by NKOTBUK, over on the other bb.

[ny boy] 18/1/2018 21:44

Yep, for sure a major relate! 🎰🎰🎰🎰7920;

[fidra] 18/1/2018 21:37

Wow,after listening to that interview I don’t think there is much to say.
Truely amazed at the actual potential of this product .
If what Tim says is correct - and he has been pretty consistent- this will be a multi billion selling drug and in pharmaceutical concerns the market cap is tiny of the company compared to the prospective value of Lupuzor.

What’s ‘tiny’ 5% maybe 2.5% ? Is that a good definition .if so this is in for a major re rate .

Edit for the arithmetically challenged .... that would be between £30 and £60 a share . Is what the chairman is possibly saying depending on his definition of tiny.

[ny boy] 18/1/2018 21:10

w1ndjammer & hottingup, tks for bringing this to my attention, great news and significant news, I will buy some more tomorrow.

[ytsa2] 18/1/2018 21:09

Considering all that has been said, particularly that thread, why so little change in share price today. Only a few weeks ago share price was 1.90 with no news

[hottingup] 18/1/2018 20:51

Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman) 18/1/2018

6 min. 45 sec.


"I am really excited that in a relatively short period of time, we could have a drug [Lupuzor] on the market which would benefit literally millions of patients across the world for a condition for which they havn't had an effective treatment ever...

...to be a relatively small UK company, sitting here as we do with this late stage product, owning 100% of it, from a commercial perspective that's really exciting as well because this is potentially a multi-billion dollar drug...this is definately going to be a product which will sell in the multi-billion dollars per year...

...we [IMM] are still only valued at £200 - £250 million. In pharmaceutical terms and the prospect of this drug, that is absolutely still very tiny when you consider the potential of this drug...There are a number of discussions going on...so its exciting on a number of fronts."

Another interview on same day:

[ny boy] 18/1/2018 20:50

This is the “money shot”

“Should Lupuzor successfully meet the trial endpoints, we estimate that ImmuPharma’s shares would significantly rerate to the upside.”

[lukead] 18/1/2018 20:48

It's a bit strange that the original poster of this thread chooses to say hardly anything nowadays, saying there is nothing much to add and he too busy, perhaps he could spare a moment in posting, this presumes he is still a holder. I think someone else on here posted very recently tagged he valued his thoughts. I'd have thought there was something to say after today's news.

[plain sailing] 18/1/2018 20:38

It seems IMM could be a real gold mine of value.

A couple of immunology drugs each are or have achieved $7 billion sales:



Looks like Johnson & Johnson need a new immunology drug to boost their portfolio.

"Remicade, which is used for treatment of a number of diseases including ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s disease and others...

...Remicade [now off patent] will see its revenues decline. The drug’s revenues peaked in 2016 at $7 billion"

"Simponi is a self-injectable biologic for rheumatoid arthritis, active psoriatic arthritis, active ankylosing spondylitis and ulcerative colitis...We expect the drugs’ combined peak sales to be around $7 billion by the end of our forecast period..."

Ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s disease, etc. - Sound familiar? - All indications IMM's P140 / Lupuzor might be able to treat, in addition to lupus.

I think IMM's Lupuzor / P140 will be one of the best selling drugs around.

Simponi manages sales of $7 billion pa inspite of some unpleasent and serious side effects. just shows how much the market could benefit from drugs like Lupuzor P140 that lack side effects and could thus command higher revenues.





The more I find out about Luupuzor / P140 and immune system drugs, the more I realise it might eventually achieve sales perhaps $10 billion pa or more.

Abbvie’s Humira (adalimumab) for arthritis sold over $16 billion in 2016 !!!!



And we already know an analyst previously said they understood IMM's Phase 2 Lupuzor trial resolved all the arthritis measures !!!!

That shows how big the prize really is for IMM's Lupuzor and the P140 platform. Big pharmas will be all over IMM if the Phase 3 Lupuzor results are good and even if they are not.

Thats why some are saying £200 a share based on the kind of deals were seeing at the moment.

Few humans have received Lupuzor. One is Barbie Manchester, she participated in the Phase 2 trial and when it ended and it was unblinded she was told she had received not placebo, but Lupuzor. She had every symptom of SLE except thrombosis and neuropsychiatric. She says she was bedridden. After her second subcutaneous injection of Lupuzor her symptoms resolved and she says “you wouldn’t know I was ill”. The only really effective medication she received for her condition was Lupuzor. I find her testimony compelling.

IMM's Lupuzor and other treatments derived from IMM's P140 platform (there are at least nine and the list is growing) might attract revenues of $15 billion+ based on what Abbvie, Amgen/Pfizer, J&J and others have achieved for immunology drugs, even with side effects which we lack.



Plenty of money among pharmas to pay billions for aquisitions (successful or unsuccessful):



"Shire had accepted a £32bn swoop by US rival AbbVie in 2014 before it was scuppered by a new US rule deterring tax inversion deals."

[plain sailing] 18/1/2018 20:33

It seems IMM could be a real gold mine of value.

A couple of immunology drugs each are or have achieved $7 billion sales:



Looks like Johnson & Johnson need a new immunology drug to boost their portfolio.

"Remicade, which is used for treatment of a number of diseases including ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s disease and others...

...Remicade [now off patent] will see its revenues decline. The drug’s revenues peaked in 2016 at $7 billion"

"Simponi is a self-injectable biologic for rheumatoid arthritis, active psoriatic arthritis, active ankylosing spondylitis and ulcerative colitis...We expect the drugs’ combined peak sales to be around $7 billion by the end of our forecast period..."

Ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, Crohn’s disease, etc. - Sound familiar? - All indications IMM's P140 / Lupuzor might be able to treat, in addition to lupus.

I think IMM's Lupuzor / P140 will be one of the best selling drugs around.

Simponi manages sales of $7 billion pa inspite of some unpleasent and serious side effects. just shows how much the market could benefit from drugs like Lupuzor P140 that lack side effects and could thus command higher revenues.





The more I find out about Luupuzor / P140 and immune system drugs, the more I realise it might eventually achieve sales perhaps $10 billion pa or more.

Abbvie’s Humira (adalimumab) for arthritis sold over $16 billion in 2016 !!!!



And we already know an analyst previously said they understood IMM's Phase 2 Lupuzor trial resolved all the arthritis measures !!!!

That shows how big the prize really is for IMM's Lupuzor and the P140 platform. Big pharmas will be all over IMM if the Phase 3 Lupuzor results are good and even if they are not.

Thats why some are saying £200 a share based on the kind of deals were seeing at the moment.

Woman named Barbie Manchester was givern Lupuzor in Phase 2. Previously she had every symptom of SLE except thrombosis and neuropsychiatric, and was bedridden. After her second dose of Lupuzor her symptoms resolved and she says “you wouldn’t know I was ill”. She tried other drugs but says Lupuzor was for her the only really effective medication. I find her testimony compelling.

IMM's Lupuzor and other treatments derived from IMM's P140 platform (there are at least nine and the list is growing) might attract revenues of $15 billion+ based on what Abbvie, Amgen/Pfizer, J&J and others have achieved for immunology drugs, even with side effects which we lack.



Plenty of money among pharmas to pay billions for aquisitions (successful or unsuccessful):



"Shire had accepted a £32bn swoop by US rival AbbVie in 2014 before it was scuppered by a new US rule deterring tax inversion deals."







............

stealth wealth
22 Jan '18 - 10:47 - 10492 of 10498

Looking at the numbers, Lupuzor has the potential to become the world's best selling drug. Only needs 650k patients out of the 2 million IMM's Tim McC says they could target, at $25k pa to give $16.25 billion pa sales, even without the other indications the P140 platform (of which Lupuzor is a part) could treat. If I know this, so will all the big pharmas with the money to do a very large deal or takeover.

N.B.
Abbvie’s Humira (adalimumab) is the world's best-selling drug with sales of US $16.078 billion in 2016. (Treats rheumatoid arthritis and Crohns, similar to IMM's P140 platform).

[dontshoutatonce] 18/1/2018 20:12

Ytsa2 I used to spread bet with IG and lost a fortune under strange circumstances(!) (ask me if you had a mysterious loss as well). Over 80% of people who spread bet lose money. The enticement is big but the losses are equally so. Personally, I think it should be illegalised.