Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[mcdermov] 18/1/2018 14:18

Barbie Manchester was on an open label extension to her Phase 2 trial and ended up on Lupuzor for two years. That is why she is so adamant it worked for her.Despite her stem cell treatment, she is keen to get Lupuzor again.

[lukead] 18/1/2018 14:15

Well there is another opportunity , I am disappointed but not overly surprised at the share price action, a lot of buys first thing but not a great rise, that's the way it is with IMM

[greedfear] 18/1/2018 14:05

In lupus trials 40-50% of SOC + placebo have shown improvements even after 52 weeks.
As long as people get something (lupuzor or placebo)at least 40% will benefit from what they're getting as long as what they're getting is not harmful.

If at least 40% of the population shows improvement it's no wonder doctors, patients ask for an extension.
Still it's not known which group benefited most. The high placebo effect is the risk here.

Anyway, good news that the study is completed.

[stanman] 18/1/2018 13:57

Bit of background reading, if anyone is interested, in current clinical guidelines for SLE management. Recently published by the British Society for Rheumatology.
Not surprisingly, no mention of Lupuzor, but perhaps there will be an updated document later this year ? !!

[greatfull dead] 18/1/2018 13:57

Looking like another phase of ups and down in the 160p to 169P share price range. Roll on the RNS with the phase 3 results fully analyzed and the data required by the FDA and EMU.

Now I will just sit back and watching the share price fluctuations and get on with my life.

GLA,
GD

[haroldthegreat] 18/1/2018 13:50

Went below 160 about 1pm when I was about to top up .

[lukead] 18/1/2018 13:47

It's dropped from 170p earlier !

[haroldthegreat] 18/1/2018 13:45

Thanks njb. When I was involved with clinical trials in 1970 there were no computer programs to rapidly produce results. I have no idea of the up to date proceedure and protocols .I was basing my estimates on the time it takes to process the national lottery data .too simplistic ! My comments on those carrying out the trial having a good idea what is going on still hold. Also the fact that they are supplying active drug for 6 more months.
I shall top up when the share drops a little. Nearly did at 1pm but got disturbed by a phone call which needed my attention.!.disgusting when the day job interferes with gambling .

[njb67] 18/1/2018 13:39

I would imagine the analyses would be at a push of a button, that these will have been pre-programmed.

Will take longer to prepare the report, especially any accompanying commentary and Q&A.

Interesting that RNS refers to ...on track...for end of Q1. The EU Lupus Conference is third week of March. It could be a good place for them to present the results.

[l0ngterm] 18/1/2018 13:33

Yip, and reports can be run on those sites and fedback, as soon as the blind came off. So IMM will have some inclination of the data

[njb67] 18/1/2018 13:27

L0ng

The early sites should be closed by now, it is wherever the final data is coming from that needs processing and any tidying up. Digital has certainly sped up the process, this would have been done by hand in years gone by.

[hjs] 18/1/2018 13:19

divin,
spot on. Look at the trades. Type O are selling (bid) at a bigger spread and AT trades are being bought (offer) at a smaller spread.

[best1467] 18/1/2018 13:19

Just for little light heated banter how about a prediction table of results day closing estimates £7.80 for me

[l0ngterm] 18/1/2018 13:16

For those interested, here is what trial software can do. Note locking of sites at completion and/or full study. I imagine a lot of the early sites have been locked down already.http://www.oracle.com/us/industries/life-sciences/health-sciences-inform-ds-397109.pdf

[allonblack] 18/1/2018 13:16

A real world example of my theoretical situation is Novartis psoriasis drug Cosentyx. By using extended trials to show 1. Continuous treatment is needed 2. It controls flare ups every time and 3. Is safe to take continuously Novartis have increased sales from 250m in 2015 to 1.2bn today. Thats how blockbusters in this area are made chaps.

[sportbilly1976] 18/1/2018 13:12

On course to be the highest volume day since the placing in 2016

[divinessence] 18/1/2018 13:08

You can see what they are doing, playing around with the share price to trigger sells then filling reasonable size orders. Share transfer taking place from small to bigger pundits.

[njb67] 18/1/2018 13:03

Harold
They will not be able to start analyses straight away, they said as much in the RNS. There is typically a one to three week period between the last data point being collected and the database being "locked" so that the programme can be run. This is the time it takes to process data and for the investigator sites to resolve any data queries.

After the results are generated, I believe they would need to share with trial governance group (not sure of proper title) before preparing any presentation, commentary and Q&A.

With a fair wind, and assuming they only look to publish the primary outcome, then we could hear in a few weeks time. That IMM are still talking about by the end of Q1 signals it could be later.

Hope useful.

[best1467] 18/1/2018 13:02

Someone who suffers from moderate to severe lupus will have taken the equivalent of placebo so therefore know how there symptoms condition reacts to it or not.The physicians doctors healthcare centres who regularly treat these patients will also know.
On that basis they will have a clear idea if they have been taking something different based solely on efficacy symptoms call it what you will and that is why it's a massive positive that they have request to extend the treatment.
As I said earlier if we had a number and it was anywhere near 50% of patients continuing treatment then as far as I'm concerned we're looking at successful readout to me the odds of success from a betting perspective look around 1/10 on which is as good as a walk over .

[sportbilly1976] 18/1/2018 12:56

I must admit, I don't understand why you'd be a seller today after the rns this morning.

Hold, top-up, buy sure...but to sell now?

[haroldthegreat] 18/1/2018 12:56

If the results have been entered surely they have a computer program to process them so within a few days the results will be known.Due to leakage the share price activity beyond say 36 hours will say it all.

[l0ngterm] 18/1/2018 12:54

On the assumption that the cro tool captures hard measurement figures for some of the criteria. E.g. swelling reduction by 20%, zero flares etc. Then the tool should be able to generate and produce high level figures fairly quickly via a report. The supporting notes details, samples etc would take longer to analyse.Do we all agree?

[divmad] 18/1/2018 12:49

Wouldn't it be nice if 50% of patients had requested a continuation of their treatment.

[haroldthegreat] 18/1/2018 12:47

Nobby any comments . you were very sceptical about this ! Do you agree with my previous post. If you don't want to post here send me a private message please