Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[runtoma] 02/1/2018 21:40

njb67 Well I for one hope he doesn't come back. If they are positive we don't need a pseudo expert doom and gloom fantasy share holder spreading nonsense. If they are negative a lot of us will have taken precautions and know what to expect. But I think he will be back before then. Watch out for pseudo experts suddenly appearing

[lukead] 02/1/2018 21:38

Fair point, but not really needed as njb67 has told us he will not be posting until after the results.

[lukead] 02/1/2018 21:11

Sorry, that was in reply to spawny

[lukead] 02/1/2018 21:09

A good point, I'm not sure how to answer that one, still won't have to now

[stealth wealth] 02/1/2018 20:47

Well said 'allonblack #8439'.

So coming back to my original point in njb's quote a few days ago:

"The Gilead executives have confirmed after the acquisition of Kite that it is the technology platform, not the future revenues of Yescarta that they have purchased rendering the price to revenue ratio meaningless."

So Gilead took over Kite Pharma for $11.9 billion cash in 2017, to get their one platform.

My understanding is IMM have two platforms - P140 (which includes Lupuzor) and Urelix, plus numerous drugs.

If some big pharmas are more interested in platforms than revenues, and IMM have two platforms from which high revenues could never-the-less be generated, then presumably that makes IMM even more attractive as a takeover target and something on which we should attribute a high monetry value, particularly as we know P140 Lupuzor could address 12+ high value indications.

njb and hamhamham need not reply.

[lundylou] 02/1/2018 20:46

njb67,thanks.
Like most here will await the results whilst marvelling in the daily increases. If this is boring give me more.
Your comments / insight most welcome. Come back soon

[spawny100] 02/1/2018 20:38

lukead - you could just take your own advice and filter him? Just saying....

[lukead] 02/1/2018 20:37

Njb67, I see that you do not intend to post until after the results.I have to say that I am delighted to hear that from you, as this constant postings on the more or less same subject can be very tedious. I sincerely hope you can KEEP YOUR WORD. Really, the best policy for you is to , as I said earlier, use THE FILTER BUTTON for those posters whose postings you find so annoying, so by not seeing them, you will not be tempted to digress.

[njb67] 02/1/2018 20:36

davew28

OK, one last post as you raise an important question and deserve an answer.

I have 20+ years commercial experience in pharma (30 in health) and over the years have been involved in various M&A activities, of which most relevant to this board is advising our M&A team on the commercial prospects of potential in-licencing products. So I would like to think that I do know more than your average investor on this board, it is this broader perspective I have tried to share here.

In my current role, I am not involved in M&A activities, these are managed out of a different country, so offer my thoughts in a personal capacity. I do know that business development is a 24/7 activity, so the comment that lots of pharma cos will be running the rule over IMM is absolutely true.

My appearance coincides with a decision to invest in IMM. If you have read my posts, you will know this - nothing more, nothing less. The blatant ramping here worries me. While we each make our own decisions, the selective posting of information (see earlier reference to the Motley Fool article, which omitted the paragraph that this is a high risk investment) to the blatant lies (the 1:7 takeover rule). Add in the "fact" that IMM is worth £40+, once we have positive phase 3 data and I am sure you can see my point.

I may post again once the result are released, this will be determine where the share price goes, up (which I hope) but possibly down too.

GLA

[davew28] 02/1/2018 20:17

njb67,
Working in Pharma and particularly Pharma M&A, I am particularly sceptical of your timely appearance on this company's BB, bearing in mind that IMM COULD be involved in an acquisition. I would have thought professional decorum, work protocol or even regulation would preclude you from making judgements such as company valuations on a public BB, for in essence isn't this part of your job? You are utilising your position and “professional knowledge” to provide a valuation which I am not sure you should be doing so if your claim to professional knowledge is true. All valuations of the company are totally hypothetical and nobody is aware of the inside story other than the BoD. The trouble with your valuation is that you are claiming professional insight and attempting to portray this as the “real value” when in fact you could be as far away from the truth as those serially posting maximum value scenarios largely based on historical data of other drugs and takeovers. At least I know of the others motives and to ignore, but yours is more influential because of what you are claiming.

[njb67] 02/1/2018 20:11

AOB

So the brokers see a lot more risk than those on here who believe £40/share is a fact.

In all the years I have invested, I have never, ever, seen such one-sided over-inflated estimates of certain wealth generation than exist on this board.

I have had some fun - pointing out the many and obvious flaws in various estimates - but my work here is done, I have more important things to do with my time than joust with those who wish to deceive others or convince themselves that they are making heroic life changing decisions. You know my view.

I wish all those who post here and have invested in good faith well. I hold and will make my next move once the results are released. I suspect that those that are pumping hard here will be long gone by then, taking their profits and moving on to the next sure thing.

Good luck all.

[lukead] 02/1/2018 20:08

Njb67, most on here are presumably holders. In fact you hold about 12,000 shares, about £22,000. As such, we like to hear positive postings. There are some postings which might be called rampastic , although the figures may be borne out by the IMM CEO. I personally have got to know the posters who write these and skip through them as they can be repetitive especially as times go by. Although they can be useful for newbies. Now rather long windedly I make the point to you njb67, that if it does and it is evident that it does that these guys irritate you, putting it mildly, then u suggest, you use the FILTER BUTTON. That would solve your problem and save all us genuine holders from the sheer boredom of your copious postings.

[allonblack] 02/1/2018 19:53

To put the record straight on broker target prices lets look at that north cap target of 180p.1. He uses a pe of 4x on earnings via a discount rate of 25pc2. He discounts everything by a probability of 65pc3. He uses a royalty rate of 12pcAdjusting for a pe of 15x instead of 4x, assuming 100pc probability of success and a 15pc royalty rate gets you £15-20. If his sales fig of 2.7bn is right it will be twice that again because if it is so effective/good it will not stop there ie other illnesses.

[njb67] 02/1/2018 19:46

"Fact is IMM shares are worth £40+" Fact? - really

So IF £40 is a true valuation post phase 3 success then the market is currently estimating the likelihood of positive results at less than 5%.

5% of success at £40 = £2
95$% of fail at £0 = 0

I do find all of this very amusing I have to say. I am in for £5-10, four to five times that of the brokers and your focus is on me and not them.

[ballsac] 02/1/2018 19:38

£200 a share for 5 indications, more for 12+ indications. Lupuzor P140 Platform worth a fortune.

"Data from IMM suggests Lupuzor / P140 / Forigerimod may be able to treat several blockbuster autoimmune and non-autoimmune diseases, including":

Lupuzor™ Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards:


- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Q1 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations (to be tested Jun 2016 onwards):
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)
- (Others to follow)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

IMM have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 & use in the majority of autoimmune indications. A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications." (IMM, Sep 2017)

"Lupuzor could therefore be several blockbusters in one." (Analysts Edison stated they "understand that a majority of Phase IIb (Lupuzor) patients showed resolution of the arthritis measure (four point score)". The Rheumatoid Arthritis market size is estimated at $28.5bn by 2025. This and other indications could add significantly to the value of Lupuzor in negotiations.

[wildbunch] 02/1/2018 19:36

m a mouse. Agreed-this is getting boring.

[englishlongbow] 02/1/2018 19:34

I wonder what analysts were saying about HGSi before its 76x share increase. Mostly they write very conservatively because they would rather under estimate and then see the price outperform, than the other way around.

Fact is IMM shares are worth £40+ if the Phase 3 results are positive.


hottingup
2 Jan '18 - 18:46 - 8426 of 8435

In Mar 2009, HGSi shares (on their 50% stake in lupus drug Benlysta) were $0.45, becoming $3.23 (market cap $528m) early Jul 2009 just before PIII Benlysta results, $12.51 (market cap of $2 billion+) at close on results day late Jul 2009, and $34.49 ($6.46 billion market cap, as there was also some dilution) at peak in Apr 2010 = 76x return over 13 months from peak low to peak high. (Source: Poster 'sicilian_kan', L-S-E, 8/7/2017)


Not bad on a 50% stake in a drug that seems to be less efficaceous and safe, and more expensive to make, than IMM's Lupuzor; and is just one drug, not one drug within an entire platform applicable to at least 12 big market indications, like Lupuzor.

[michaelamouse] 02/1/2018 19:28

njb67, you are a funny old thing, you can't let go when you latch onto something, take a chill pill and have fun is my advice. I remember seeing a little debate on here regards brokers note and the £2.37, to which some on here said you had to add £5 on for some reason, which i can't reminder thereupon for, i'd have thought some more switched on guy would have put you right on this. You must be a difficult guy to live with.
Oh and just in case anyone has not heard, you actually have a recent holding in IMM and you say it could go to £5 a or it could go to zero, yeas actually zilch, according to the guru njb67, you have told us this a million , zillion times over and over and over again. Quite boring really zzzzzzz

[njb67] 02/1/2018 19:22

mm1

Northland reiterated a buy recommendation at the end of Sept with a £1.81 target. Must be suffering from the Finncap malaise too.

hxxps://www.brokerforecasts.com/companies/IMM

[money maker1] 02/1/2018 19:17

I heard the analyst at Northland Capital say this back in July

"HGSi's takeout price was $3.6 billion for 50% of the rights (to Benlysta) so we can assume roughly Benlysta was bought for $7 billion...and that's in 2012...so if we are looking at a drug (Lupuzor) that could be better, the price could be higher...a novel treatment for lupus could command that price...because it already has..."