Immupharma Share Discussion Threads

[runtoma] 02/1/2018 15:44

njb And you are going to win the lottery this week. No need to respond with nonsense. Keep that for your main posts.Sorry,that was unfair. But try to do your homework before you post.I am surprised by the glaring omissions and false assumptions you make coming as they do from someone involved in mergers and acquisitions in the pharma industry.

[ny boy] 02/1/2018 15:40

Onwards to 237p

Broker Forecast - finnCap issues a broker note on ImmuPharma PLC
12th December 2017, 08:00

finnCap today initiates coverage of ImmuPharma PLC [LON:IMM] with a buy investment rating and price target of 237p.

[l0ngterm] 02/1/2018 15:40

Njb67: read the referenced link below if you doubt me. Instead of just marking me down :-)Boom: found the thumbs down ? culprit lol

[zho] 02/1/2018 15:39

... and another one. What is it about this stock?

[l0ngterm] 02/1/2018 15:33

This is a double blind not a triple blind trial. So results will be shown to the oversight committee for the trial.Double blind is purely the investigator and participant being blinded , not everyone.So people will be seeing the results, and yes it is feasible a leek could occur. Also the fact the company issued generous share options might also support this theory."A double-blind RCT is a randomised trial in which two groups of individuals involved in the trial do not know the identity of the intervention that is given to each participant. Usually, these two groups include the participants and the investigators in charge of assessing the outcomes of the interventions."A triple blind:"In a triple-blind RCT, three groups of individuals involved in the trial do not know the identity of the intervention that is given to each participant. These groups could include the participants, the investigators giving the intervention, and those evaluating the outcomes (if the latter two are different); or the participants, the investigators evaluating the outcomes, and the data analysts"https://www1.cgmh.org.tw/intr/intr5/c6700/OBGYN/F/Randomized%20tial/chapter2.html

[zho] 02/1/2018 15:31

ballsac - yet another shill.

[ballsac] 02/1/2018 15:27

£200 a share for 5 indications, more for 12+ indications. Lupuzor P140 Platform worth a fortune.

"Data from IMM suggests Lupuzor / P140 / Forigerimod may be able to treat several blockbuster autoimmune and non-autoimmune diseases, including":

Lupuzor™ Symposium
8th June 2016 - 3:35 pm

41 min 40 sec onwards:


- Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) (Market size $4 bn) (SLE ends Phase 3, Q1 2018)
- Neuropsychiatric lupus (NPSLE)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Rheumatoid Arthritis (Market size $28.5 bn by 2025)
- Gougerot-Sjögren syndrome (GSS) (Market size $2.2 bn by 2024)
- Crohn's Disease + Ulcerative Colitis (Market size $4 bn by 2022)
- Guillan-Barre disease
- Chronic Inflammatory Demyelinating Polyneuropathy (CIDP)
- Asthma (Market size $20.7 bn in 2015)

Other potential evaluations (to be tested Jun 2016 onwards):
- Scleroderma (Systemic Sclerosis, Raynaud)
- Psoriasis
- Multiple Sclerosis (MS) (Market size $20 bn by 2024)
- (Others to follow)

Negative preclinical results for potential re-evaluation:
- Type I Diabetes (Market size $43 bn by 2021)
- Amytrophic Lateral Sclerosis (ALS)

IMM have a new Lupuzor patent (granted 2017) covering key markets (USA, EU, China, India & Japan) to 2032 & use in the majority of autoimmune indications. A new patent has also been filed to cover non-autoimmune indications. (IMM, Sep 2017)

Lupuzor could therefore be several blockbusters in one. (Analysts Edison stated they "understand that a majority of Phase IIb (Lupuzor) patients showed resolution of the arthritis measure (four point score)". The Rheumatoid Arthritis market size is estimated at $28.5bn by 2025. This and other indications could add significantly to the value of Lupuzor in negotiations.

[pi0110] 02/1/2018 15:15

I think it's worth repeating this article from 26th Saept.



Last week, the company said all patients participating in the study had passed the six month stage, with 52 patients, or 26% of the total, having completed the full 12 months of the study. The firm also confirmed the continuation of a robust safety record and said the trial remains on track to report the top-line results by the end of the first quarter of 2018.

On Tuesday, it said: "With the trial progressing as planned, ImmuPharma is planning ahead in anticipation of the trial's successful outcome. In consultation with its regulatory advisors, the company is now progressing the completion of the regulatory dossiers in preparation for submission to the Food & Drug Administration and European Medicines Agency."

This includes the finalisation of the drug master file and in particular the manufacture of commercial batches of the Lupuzor drug. These will be manufactured according to the described procedures in the drug master file, ImmuPharma said, to be ready for inclusion in these regulatory submissions.

[hottingup] 02/1/2018 15:05

Shares Magazine
Small caps poised for big news in 2018:
We look at 19 stocks primed to deliver major events in their career
21/12/2017



"Drug developer ImmuPharma (IMM) is expecting Phase III results in the first quarter of 2018 for lupus treatment Lupuzor. Analysts speculate the drug could hit multi-billion dollar annual sales if the tests are successful and the drug gets approved by the regulators."


This promising small-cap stock could be a millionaire maker in 2018
Paul Summers
26/12/2017



The suggestion that a single stock could lead some investors to become millionaires next year may sound fanciful but I think this is quite possible if events work out for small-cap drug discovery and development firm ImmuPharma (LSE: IMM). Let me explain.

Blockbuster potential

Over the last three months, shares in the AIM-listed company have climbed more than 200% in value as anticipation grows over the outcome of a Phase III clinical trial for Lupuzor — its 100%-owned potential treatment for Lupus.

Approximately five million people are believed to suffer from the chronic and potentially life-threatening autoimmune disease that can be a notoriously difficult to treat. In the last 50 years, only one therapy — GlaxoSmithKline‘s Benlysta — has been approved for use, despite its questionable efficacy and serious side-effects. In 2015, the drug achieved sales of over $400m. By 2020, this figure is expected to rise to $1bn.

Positively, data from Lupozor’s Phase IIb trial indicated that ImmuPharma’s treatment — which modulates rather than blocks the immune system — was both effective and safe. Moreover, the effectiveness of Lupuzor increased even after the three-month trial’s conclusion. Investors will be hoping that the 52-week, randomised and double-blinded study currently in progress (involving patients in the US, Europe and Mauritius) yields similar results.

In its most recent update on 21 December, the company revealed that all 200 participants had now received the full 12-month dosage and that the “robust safety record” shown in earlier trials continues to be seen. According to Chairman Tim McCarthy, the company looks forward “with continued confidence” to reporting on top-line results in Q1 of next year.

In the event of a positive outcome, ImmuPharma will then seek to exploit its Fast Track designation and push for approval from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Once received, the company would then be free to seek out a global licensing deal for taking Lupuzor to market or — perhaps more likely — consider takeover bids by deep-pocketed pharmaceutical giants at a price befitting its blockbuster potential. Given the suggestion that it could be used in the treatment of other diseases, the price could easily be in the billions of pounds. Right now, ImmuPharma’s market cap is a little over £200m.


Tim McCarthy (IMM Chairman)
14/3/2017
"There's going to be a fantastic return on investment for anybody who invests in ImmuPharma...This (Lupuzor) is going to be a multi-billion dollar drug, its as simple as that...This will absolutely be a multi-billion dollar drug."

4 min 40 sec.

[njb67] 02/1/2018 15:00

Sorry runt.

Should have added, this is going to be a sure fire 200 pound a share. Happy now?

[runtoma] 02/1/2018 14:56

That is rich njb state the obvious and try to turn it into a deramp

[glennrcharles] 02/1/2018 14:56

Maybe there is other info that is leading to a spread of confidence. Either way it's a lovely rise.

[money maker1] 02/1/2018 14:54

On 21/12/2017, IMM announced the last patient had been dosed in the Phase 3 lupuzor trial. Final evaluation is 28 days later (i.e. end of week 52 for the last patient) so around 17th or 18th January 2018, after which data can be unblinded for all participants.

[njb67] 02/1/2018 14:53

Hi spawns

The last dose is given at 48 weeks, they continue to collect data until week 52. Analyses can not start until then.

A few more weeks away at least.

[money maker1] 02/1/2018 14:52

On 21/12/2017, IMM announced the last patient had been dosed in the Phase 3 lupuzor trial. Final evaluation is 28 days later, so around 17th or 18th January 2018, after which data can be unblinded.

[spawny100] 02/1/2018 14:44

Njb did you miss the last rns? All patients have already had their final dose.

[njb67] 02/1/2018 14:42

No results can be generated until after all patients have completed 12 months treatment. IMM only announced in early Nov that all had passed 9 months, so reckon early Feb before they are able to break the blind and conduct the analyses.

The increase in SP, is likely to be little more than increased awareness of IMM and anticipation of Ph3 results.

[glennrcharles] 02/1/2018 14:39

Evidence suggests a rising or falling share price between end of trial and announcement is mostly linked to success or failure. So we might expect leakage in a few weeks.

[chadders] 02/1/2018 14:32

Leaking news usually results in a feeding frenzy. We haven't had that yet so I doubt there's a leak.

[spmc] 02/1/2018 14:01

I was speaking about IMM to a friend of mine who manages a pension fund and he was saying based on the price action it looks like something has leaked, apparently when P3 stocks rise like this just before results it's a very strong signal that the results are good as those in the know are buying and no matter how tight the ship is there is virtual always people in the know who will buy or tell friends to buy ect. In his opinion based on the price action it's around 95% the chance the results are good. I was going to top slice so I'm on a free carry but not going to now, holding onto all my shares for the big pay day!

[hamhamham1] 02/1/2018 13:21

I think those shares offered for sale earlier today have been bought and supply has now dried up.

[professor bang bang] 02/1/2018 12:36

The questionairre issue is not really an issue, as it would have been the same for Benlysta, so its a level playing field if you get my meaning (same with placebo effect). That said, questionairres may work better in moderate to severe lupus patients, who can more clearly perceive their own 'improvement' - which is where I also see Lupuzor really coming into its own - particularly as lupus is a life threatening illness (and it is the Phase 3 moderate to severe lupus patients sub-group data I will be most interested in seeing). Presumably, however the questionairrre design and trial size should help to reduce subjectiveness. There are also several clinically measured factors.

Edit - Barbie Manchester said she felt as if she did not even have lupus when she took Lupuzor and for her it was the best of all the drugs she tried. That's a pretty clear indication of how that particular patient described how she felt.

[jpleight] 02/1/2018 12:29

I know what a p value means, thanks bang. We are in the same boat here. Personally, I dont like when endpoints are questionnaires, which are very subjective. Lupus is a very heterogeneous disease, and placebo effect is quite high so I just want to be sensible about expectations.

[top tips] 02/1/2018 12:24

I m no expert on this but an interesting subpoint is that you don't need 100% trial sucess with every patient to get approval, as seen with Benlysta, you just need to have a 4 point SLEDAI score reduction in enough patients vs Placebo, acceptable safety and have reliable data. Its a mixture of all these things. For us the Phase 3 is more about testing the reliability of the Phase 2b data, although as you say, dosing over a longer period could lead to greater efficacy, which was arguably hinted at in the Phase 2b follow up figures.