Thanks wiggy - you too - hard times to make money in the markets - everyone could use a bit of good fortune... |
nobby - Not singling you out. I treat most posts on any board with a huge degree of scepticism.
And yes, it's perfectly reasonable to ask your question, but I doubt you'll get a reply. And personally I wouldn't read much into any update from an unknown source on a BB anyway. |
Tim will be busy in Milan ! And he's not shopping for shoes |
So LLOL you are already accusing me of making things up if I post a reply from Avion?!? I can assure you I never lie on these boards or make things up because it will always come back to haunt you.
Oh and it’s perfectly reasonable to ask a company a question about a product they have licensed which does not appear on their website don’t you think?!? |
I did respond, and I have no wish to let you drag it on all day. Best wishes with your investments |
Why would Avion reply to something that's so obviously market-sensitive?
I'd treat any post on that front with a very big pinch of salt. |
wiggy - I see you didn't actually respond to my comment about Teva's lack of an SLE drug, but pretended you did - naughty :¬(
Incidentally, even if P140 gets approval, I assume it's the same drug that passed its Phase 1 in 2006? If so, as soon as approval was granted, competitors could just buy it off-the-shelf from MedChem :¬)
I wonder if the Avion delay is because they want a later formulation, in order to have a meaningful patent life? That would of course mean starting trials from the beginning, which would be a pity. I'll be interested to read the Avion response to Nobby's query. |
So Lupuzor may work at a higher dose, multiple billion+ deals have been signed in the immunology space over the last 12-18 months, immupharma have signed multiple CDA's with large biopharma in recent weeks, an independent 3rd party in the US has verified the MOA of p140 etc... Thank you for conceding that Lupuzor may work at a higher dose nob, and I will leave readers to decide whether things have moved on. With a £20m valuation, it is pretty clear which view is already priced in.. ATB |
Wiggy yes I would be surprised if a big Pharma licensed it at this point. As previously discussed they had to give it away to Avion with no upfront and nothing has changed since then. Happy now? |
So I have asked Avion about the status of Lupuzor since it doesn’t appear on the website. It will be interesting to hear their reply….. |
Good grief, look at nob ducking a question again.. Now we've established Lupuzor might work at a higher dose nob, why would it surprise you if a large pharma company agreed to develop it? That would likely propel the shares, no? I know you aren't interested in discussing the share price on a share chat board, but unfortunately that is why everyone (apart from you) is here |
I just had a glance at Avion’s website and Lupuzor isn’t mentioned anywhere as far as I can see. In addition lupus isn’t listed as one of their clinical areas of interest. Hmmmmm…. |
Wiggy doesn’t like facts which disprove his argument which is a bit sad….
So Wiggy are you confident Lupuzor will be efficacious….or are you just in it for the trade? You seem confused about this issue so we need to clear it up. |
Oh dear superduper, you really just sound like someone who can't admit when he's wrong. Occam didn't work this time, but it did sound ever so intellectual :) |
Laquinimod was for MS, for which it was eventually dropped. They tried it for a while in patients with lupus arthritis and lupus nephritis, but not in SLE without these additional problems, which was Lupuzor's target.
Sorry wiggy, I thought you'd have learned not to believe everything IMM tells you :¬( |
This seemingly endless debate between wig, super & nob isn’t really getting us anywhere.
Nobody knows whether:
a) a revised Lupuzor trial by Avion will ever happen
& b) if it does, what the revised dosage will be
Time to move on methinks. |
lol. Well the down ticker has just proven he's totally clueless :) |
"In May 2011, Cephalon agreed to a takeover bid by Teva. The acquisition was finalized on October 14, 2011. Given the fact that Teva has a competing drug candidate for Lupus (laquinimod) and the existence of key provisions of the agreement between ImmuPharma and Cephalon, Immupharma requested the return of the rights for Lupuzor"... never mind, superduper |
Cephalon overpaid because they misjudged the asset, as subsequent trial results proved. Teva dropped Lupuzor because they didn't think they could make money out of it - again a decision ratified by events.
Teva had no interest in SLE at the time of the takeover - check clinicaltrials.gov - so there's no reason to suppose they dropped Lupuzor in favour of some mythical asset. Or do you have concrete evidence?
If Lupuzor had done anything since 2018 to excite interest from independent immunologists, we'd have 'representative' views, but as it hasn't, we haven't. Or can you provide later commentary?
I thought you were in this for a trade - didn't realise you'd become a believer! Good luck with that :¬) |
"I never thought I would say this about a seasoned punter like you wiggy"... aww that's sweet, nob. And then you go and agree with me by stating that a multiplication of the dose may well work, and the only debate is about the level required... So now we've established Lupuzor might work nob, why would it surprise you if a large pharma company agreed to develop it? ... That would represent real progress, a key inflection, jeez the shares would probably rocket... oh no, I forgot, you and pals are not interested in the share price.. lol :) |
Dear oh dear wiggy; I think you are getting desperate because it seems you must have the last word. Any immunologist would look at the data and say the dose was way too low. However there is not enough information available currently to come to a conclusion about what the dose should be used hence there will be a debate. It’s really not complicated….
Oh and I don’t dispute the price could go up on the back of ramping ahead of a trial result (if it ever starts) but I’m not interested in the price just scientific facts and objectivity. |
You can't make your mind up, nob... Earlier you stated "This sort of science isn't precise". Now you claim that an immunologist looking at all the data would reach the same conclusion... And of course, from an investment perspective the drug can progress and hit multiple rewarding inflection points prior to the trial result. Perhaps you're just being obtuse :) |
I never thought I would say this about a seasoned punter like you wiggy….but what a naive view. That was many years ago in a completely different market and lots of water has flowed under the bridge since then….including a spectacular failure in a phase III trial!
In case you forget the p value was 0.27 (or thereabouts) |
I'm pleased you like facts and occams, superduper. The most likely reason Cephalon paid $30m upfront and committed to $500m milestones is because they thought the drug had great potential. A large company with funds backed lupuzor. Fact. The most likely reason Teva dropped Lupuzor is because in the context of a $6.8bn deal it was the simplest thing to do, especially when they already had a lupus candidate... And in terms of drawing conclusions from a handful of immunologist responses in 2018 - and claiming it is representative of how immunologists may be looking at p140 today - too silly to comment on |
Bizarre question wiggy. The drug has to pass the clinical trial to proceed. However you seem to think I’m being negative for the sake of it but I can assure you any immunologist looking at all the data I have, would come to a similar conclusion. As I said it’s not rocket science if you have experience in the industry and have a knowledge of immunology. My scientific view as always is entirely objective and based on evidence….but yes I concede I don’t trust Tim as far as I can kick him! |
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