 Outstanding RNS. Remember IMM is currently priced to go bust, despite holding significant assets and today it being confirmed that there are no current plans to raise equity and that future cash requirements are expected to be non dilutive from up front payments in new commercial deals with unpartnered assets. Active discussions / a bread range of discussions confirmed.
Among the assets are:
1. Fully funded P3 trial for Lupuzor, which IMM has double digit tiered royalties on up to 17% and milestone payments, whilst retaining all non-US rights that they hope to partner on this year. The US only deal itself is worth more than the current market cap, let alone the ROW rights that they can sell.
2. They have the worldwide rights for Lupuzor in CIPD that can go straight into a P2/3 and which they hope to partner on. Again, any deal would dwarf the current market cap. Orphan drug status being submitted which again would provide a large boost to the share price even before a deal.
3. The worldwide rights for BioAMB, an anti-infective program that they also hope to partner on. Part 1 of new dose ranging study in animal model complete and no toxisity. Moving to Part 2. Intial partnering discussions have commenced.
4. IMM owns 10.8% (as well as 7.3m warrants) in Incanthera, which concluded a significant commercial skincare deal with part of the AS Watson Group. This is the world's largest international health and beauty retailer owning brands like Superdrug, The Perfume Shop and many others. Significant revenues and profitability are expected to commence for Incanthera in 2024.
5. Overheads reduced by more than 75% since the new business plan came in.
All for a market cap of £4.7m. Yes, sub £5m market cap, with no funding needs, for double digit royalties in a fully funded P3 trial, 100% of ROW rights to sell for that trial, 100% of CIDP worldwide rights to sell for the same drug to go into P2/3 trial, 10.8% share of a company expected to generate revenues and profitability this year with a partnership with the world's largest international health and beauty retailer, anti-infective progress and partnership discussions having commenced, and overheads reduced by 75%.
It is in my view one of the most undervalued companies on AIM. It should easily have a market cap of £20m in its current position, or around 5p. And that is before any deals are done. |
This is a classic McCarthy over optimistic statement.
The anti infective is preclinical and Pharma always prefer to see clinical data before they sign on the dotted line. So the chances of getting a significant upfront for this program is absolutely minimal!
With regards to the P140 programs well you have to remember it’s soiled goods because it spectacularly failed its first phase III. Also IMM received no upfront payment from Elan even though in theory it’s a phase III ready drug so it’s hard to believe they will get any significant upfront for the second indication. Ironically the best chance to raise money is the holding in Incanthera which is nothing to do with IMM directly because that looks like it could succeed in the short term.
So I don’t hold out much hope for significant deals providing upfront cash to keep the company going in the short term. However you have to say the company is priced to fail and any half decent deal could well precipitate a rise in the price! |
Yes it's a crazy Mcap - it cracks me up when watching Dragons Den and some of the valuations individuals give their companies lol. |
Interesting the way this is being walked down. I read piece in the DM about UK companies being taken over from overseas (link) and it occurred to me that at £3.6M cap IMM could be taken over for an amount that is spare change. |
Whose gonna be the one switching out the lights here??? |
It's been said many times that the guy isn't to be trusted. |
This is chronicTM should be forced to quitNo news for nearly 6 monthsUnacceptableWhen will trial actually start - no confidence will even be this yearWhere is news on apparently the other parts of the businessNow at 1p which is the nominal value Market seems to be making it very clear what it thinks |
nobby - agreed. Though as I posted on 6th Feb, assuming the trial still proceeds with Avion's full funding, I suspect IMM's share price will rise significantly at some stage within the next two years or so, closer to readout. This is less in McCarthy's hands now than at any time previously.
In the unlikely event it met its endpoints, IMM's share price would go stratospheric. Otherwise, it's likely to be RIP IMM, IMHO. |
You have to say that on the face of it a market cap of around £5 million is ridiculous for a company that has a drug about to go into phase III. However it’s the spectre of the serial failure of McCarthy in this field which puts me off even thinking about an investment here. |
I've not looked at this for some time LLOL. I used to own a lot of Biotechs as thats my field (or was) and I basically bought a whole stack of different bios that virtually all failed. Good luck if your in here we could do with some successes. |
https://www.alliancepharmaceuticals.com/investors/shareholder-centre/significant-shareholders/ |
SYME IS NOW READY TO FLY |
Looks like it's out turn! |
Dr Biotech - interesting. I generally agree and am very sorry to hear about your niece.
My only thought re: IMM is that many holders (myself included) are probably hanging on (or averaging down) on the basis the share price could well rise as we get closer to the next trial results.
I suspect many doubt this latest trial will actually deliver the goods (assuming it even happens). However, there might still be a way of erasing current paper losses by hanging on, then selling into any pre-readout froth.
Of course, there's still a danger that IMM runs out of money before then, or that the expected share price rise never materialises!
Your thoughts? |
Tim McC has a long history of failed biotechs, I wouldn't pin your hopes on him.
Haven't been here for a while - going back some years there was some obvious red flags in their previous studies which were pointed out by nobby and much less so by myself and others but were shouted down by those predicting an share price in £100s.
As mentioned going against any regulatory body carries significant risk - as does any clinical trial. Just have to look at how many fail phase II/III for the large pharma's.
However, its not always the case. My sister in law adopted a couple of kids 12 years ago. The youngest who was only a few months old didn't develop normally and has something call Rett Syndrome - simplest explanation is rare illness that affects girls and they regress from about 18-24m to become non verbal with severe physical disabilities. My niece needs care pretty much 24/7 which they provide at considerable financial and emotional cost to themselves. A few years ago a little known aussie biotech (Neuren) started a trial for a treatment and my brother in law bet everything they had on the shares - and the drug passed PIII with the shares going from $2 to $24. Unfortunately the treatment won't help them, but they have made £500k+. Sometimes the universe does bring karma.
But I still wouldn't touch this. |
VV - "shareholders remain rightly very very disappointed."
Which is why the share price is where it is, but that could change in an instant ;-)
GL SR |
Value Viper - Agreed.
That said, any shareholder who pays the slightest attention to TM's "promises" really only has themselves to blame. |
5 months now since the last 2p raise and absolutely no news apart from Lanstead selling. And I am not talking about the Incanthera RNS. Genuinely what is going on here - the two Tims do what ? TM promised lots of news re. the anti infective drugs side straight after the last raise - astonishing and shareholders remain rightly very very disappointed. |
And we are at least 2 and a half years away from the final results so no rush to buy now. IMHO only news from other parts of the portfolio will drive the price upwards. Yes there may be a small spike when they finally announce the phase III has started but for me that will just highlight how far there is to go. Yes they are a small biotech company partnered with a company with no experience of lupus but this has just taken way too long to get to this stage! |
WRT side effects, they have never used such a high dose so we will have to wait and see what happens! |
Surely the chance of success with increased dose (upto x15), known safety profile and targeted patient profile selection the chances of success are raised significantly.From data to date:Lupuzor has undergone substantial testing, including preclinical development, phase 1, phase 2a and phase 2b trials. Lupuzor performed well in the clinical Phase 2b trial, testing c. 200 patients (including all groups and placebo), where the drug demonstrated significant efficacy in the treatment of lupus. Most importantly, Lupuzor has demonstrated a clean safety profile throughout clinical trials to date.From the 2013 assessmentn conclusion, the results of this study showed that Lupuzor provided statistically significant and clinically meaningful improvement of disease activity in a subpopulation of lupuspatients with a SLEDAI-2K score ?6 with a more pronounced effect in a population with a clinical SLEDAI score ?6. Moreover, on the basis of Lupuzor's Phase IIb trial data, the drug demonstrated a higher response rate and fewer side-effects to Benlysta's Phase III trial.This new and modified Ph3 - With important insights gained from the first pivotal Phase III Lupuzor trial, a new Phase III clinical trial design has been identified. The ability to select the most responsive patients by biomarker profile has enabled Avion and ImmuPharma to agree the most robust way forward for Lupuzor in lupus patients. |
Luzley - the current share price reflects consensus view on IMM’s prospects of a SUCCESSFUL trial. Not just its stage of development.
Also, there’s a possibility IMM will run out of cash shortly, which would mean a fund raise & yet more dilution.
Not hard to see why the share price is where it is currently. Though sentiment could change rapidly, either for better or worse. |
Now below £6m MCap for carried Ph3....bizarre. Where else can you pick up any similar pharma at this stage of development for under £50m MCap? |
Why are they doing this? |
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