ILX Share Discussion Threads

[aa29] 11/4/2008 15:13

Dean - see last year .......

[deanroberthunt] 11/4/2008 09:40

since the year end was end March, I would have expected a trading update if they were to miss or exceed prior to then.....so imo the expectation is "in-line", so £2m pbt.....

[waxinglyrical] 10/4/2008 13:50

NewKid - ILX seems to have a habit of doing this? Perhaps one of the gurus around might explain why?

[orvil] 10/4/2008 13:49

Newkid-i think you will find when you try to buy the spread is not as bad as it looks

[newkid] 10/4/2008 13:26

50p to buy 42p to sell. No one going to be interested with that spread.

Regards NewKid

[orvil] 09/4/2008 12:37

I seem to recall on the interview that was posted earlier that Ken confirmed they would hit full year target and was therefore suprised at the low rating..

[aa29] 09/4/2008 12:14

H1 is stronger for CTG, H2 for Best Practice. If they miss, it won't be because of the credit crunch - it will be more likely to be the problems that made Best Practice perform poorly last year.

[deanroberthunt] 09/4/2008 11:39

well they've already bagged £1m for H1, with H2 generally being stronger...so if they miss the fy forecast, then I would beg to differ with the company that the Credit Crunch has had no effect on trading...

[aa29] 09/4/2008 11:26

Sharescope suggests the forecast PTP of £2m gives EPS of 7p so the PEs are probably a bit higher.

We'll know soon enough (trading statement within a week?) but I suspect the lack of the usual trading statement in January means that they may miss the forecast. Perhaps not by much but you don't know whether they've been able to solve the problems in Best Practice.

[deanroberthunt] 09/4/2008 11:01

AA...you're right of course, but I was just pointing out that the valuation is compelling, both from a NAV and PER perspective.....and there's a reasonable divi, even with that the forecast pbt for 08' is £2m and for 09' £2.5m....so working off just 4.5x and 3.6x earnings respectively.

timing is so important with these small caps....still could go down further, but I believe the downside is minimal from here (caveat...profit warnings or severe market downturn aside).

rgs

[aa29] 09/4/2008 10:56

Dean,

You get a rather different result if you work out Net Tangible Assets. I don't see this as being an asset play - it's a question of buying the future growth and whether you see the story as reliable or not.

Most of the regular posters on here have been waiting to see the story reflect in the share price for three or more years - that's why you can buy them at 43.2p.

AA

PS Anyone here taking to chance to talk to Ken at Master Investor at the end of the month ?

[deanroberthunt] 09/4/2008 09:49

From last intermins, NAV

undiluted 103p/share

diluted 93p/share

added a few more at 43p.

[deanroberthunt] 05/4/2008 15:34

I reckon since ILX will be reporting about £2m pbt for fy...they're working off just 4.5x earnings...recent updates seem bullish and they don't seem to have suffered any ill effects from Le Crunch, by the way of lost business from the financial sector....so I have tucked some away in my SIPP at 46p.....seems cheap enough to get back in after watching this for a long time...

I would'nt expect eps growth to be anything exciting, but steady away will do me.

rgs

[dusseldorf] 29/3/2008 11:29

I hope Jon Pickles doesn't mind, but for extra clarity for the long suffering ILX holders on here I thought I would share the full response:

Dear XXXXXXXXX,

I hope I can put your mind at rest. A placing of new shares (for the CTG earn-out or indeed for any other purpose) has never been under consideration.

As stated in our recent announcement concerning new bank finance, the first installment of CTG earn-out has been fully paid in cash.

The second installment of CTG earn-out, which we expect to be fully earned, is £2.5 million. £1.0 million of our recently obtained £5.0 million term loan remains undrawn to part-fund this payment. The remaining £1.5 million we expect to pay out of our current cash and our operating cash flow. However, should this not be fully available at 30 June 08 for any reason, our agreement for the purchase of CTG provides that up to £1.5 million may be made in shares at the option of the company or, subject to both parties' consent, simply delayed with interest accruing at an agreed rate. A further placing of shares should not therefore be required.

I hope this is of help. Thank you for your email and for your support of ILX Group.

Best regards


Jon Pickles

[davidlloyd] 27/3/2008 15:05

Refreshing, isn't it. Rare these days.

DL

[spaceparallax] 27/3/2008 13:33

Duss,

Thanks for that - a remarkably plain English reply.

[dusseldorf] 27/3/2008 12:46

All - I contacted via e-mail ILX Investor relations regarding the issues I highlighted above, had an e-mail response from Jon Pickles (Finance Director), he suggested strongly that a placement was not on the cards "A placing of new shares (for the CTG earn-out or indeed for any other purpose) has never been under consideration.". If the earnout was not available in cash it 'could' subject to both parties agreeing, be deferred with appropriate interest rate.

[mudbath] 26/3/2008 19:33

AA29..Thanks for your response.Whilst I don't hold ILX,it was the article(linked)that brought me to this thread.Their company website strikes me as first class,which must be helpful in their sphere.Could be tempted to invest if the share price halves again.

[spaceparallax] 26/3/2008 12:39

Duss,

Those are two matters that also get under my skin.

That said, presumably we face no further significant cash calls for a while and who knows, we might actually determine solid support.

[dusseldorf] 26/3/2008 12:33

spaceparallax - I believe this the most likely scenario, this disappoints on two fronts:
a) Allowing a discounted share issue at preferntial rates to closed party
b) Identifiying this a long time ago, informing parties and then allowing them to dispose in market - i.e. insider dealing

[spaceparallax] 26/3/2008 12:20

On reflection, perhaps this dip is in response to a leak concerning the earn-out that Duss raised recently i.e. the money might be raised thru' issue at an unflattering share price

[waxinglyrical] 26/3/2008 10:24

I think someone has done well with a 25k buy!

[spaceparallax] 26/3/2008 10:07

The share price appears to have fallen off a cliff based upon a 1000 Sell! makes even less sense than usual.

[spaceparallax] 19/3/2008 10:20

Duss,

That's a good point. It's hard to know which way they'll go - the share route has certainly yielded problems in the past i.e. the creation of an overhang that has contributed to the share price erosion.

[aa29] 18/3/2008 23:57

Mudbath

I think you are slightly misunderstanding what I was saying.

ILX may well have wonderful potential for growth but I fell out with the spin. The article you found is a perfect example. The poor Mount Lane acquisition wasn't Ken's fault. Well, who agreed to buy a company where they knew the main player had only an indirect ownership interest ? It appears that the ML business is now 'back on course' but IIRC that means sales this year were only targetted at HALF the pre acquisition level.

CTG undoubtedly was a superb acquisition and should pay off for the share price sooner or later but I would rather be elsewhere where there is less spin.

As for suggestions, you are better placed with what fits in with your own approach rather than mine. As spaceparallax says, there are plenty of similar growth companies out there and the better ones have a history of delivering and have up to date trading statements and/or results. I found a new company to research just by doing some preparatory work for this reply.