Icg Enterprise Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 23/2/2022 22:25

riverman77, re your concern. All I would say is that the only time I remember there being big markdowns across the listed PE trusts was 2009. And a chunk of that came from the trusts' boards, who all got overly worried, and would have to write it back later on. Of course, the mkt also didn't believe the valuations hence the really huge discounts which opened up - I remember buying some PIN at 115p on an 80%+ discount! But, none of the trusts' ports did come a cropper as despite what you read in the media, most PE is conservatively valued - hence the big uplifts on selling. Since then, I would say that the managers have gotten even better, use less leverage and add more value to their businesses. Likewise the trusts themselves are better run with better boards. But, Mr Mkt is determined in his opinion that PE is not the thing to be holding during wobbly times...

[skyship] 23/2/2022 21:05

Thnx Ram - if only they didn't have 6% of the port in CHEWY!

[riverman77] 23/2/2022 19:41

When calculating the NAV, remember to knock off around 3% for the sharp fall in the Chewy shares price. It was a 6.5% position in the fund and fallen by around 40% since October.

My concern is, if the listed positions have fallen this much (and there have been similar falls in the listed positions of other PE funds), then surely the unlisted positions would also need marking down, perhaps quite meaningfully?

[rambutan2] 23/2/2022 16:56

From earlier this month:

[skyship] 23/2/2022 16:29

Surely now oversold - on offer at 1116p for a 31.2% discount (Oct'21 NAV).

[deadly] 14/2/2022 11:49

up today despite the heavy market falls!!

[tonio] 03/2/2022 10:01

Chewy isn't looking too good and at 6.2% of portfolio value in October a fall of 40% in its value would be loss to the portfolio of 2.5% - not a lot seemingly compared to a 24.2% share price discount to NAV.
As to Chewy, going forward 'expectations have certainly been reset' from its 2020 heyday but seeking alpha are optimistic:

[rik shaw] 03/2/2022 09:46

Maybe but other holdings may have increased NAV since end of Oct 21 to balance one holding dropping.

[skyship] 03/2/2022 09:19

tonio - one thing always to bear in mind here is the 40% fall in their largest holding - Chewy. So the apparent 24.2% discount is actually rather less.

[joe say] 03/2/2022 08:04

Now been updated

[rik shaw] 02/2/2022 22:47

There was a market update yesterday stating NAV at end of Oct 21 1628p. That's the best information available at present. HL's estimate has not been updated yet in line with yesterday's RNS.

[tonio] 02/2/2022 19:06

I've been and am a happy investor in ICGT for a year or so as I was in Graphite some years back but I am a bit puzzled at the moment.
Hargreaves Lansdown has the measured NAV as of 31st October as 1628 but still has the estimated NAV as of today as 1524.72.
Who does this estimate- ICGT presumably? Anyone know if this really is the up to date estimate or have HL not received that?
Out of interest is this rather than the historic measured NAV influencing the share price today?
Just ignore if my naive questions are irrelevant :-)

[skyship] 01/2/2022 09:09

As with most threads the latest news item appears beneath the chart - see above.

[ali47fish] 01/2/2022 09:04

sky just copy it under your post I don't know which line in the heaader

[skyship] 01/2/2022 08:23

NAV climbs to 1628p - see News in Header

[strathroyal] 21/1/2022 20:33

£27M

[strathroyal] 21/1/2022 20:29

Skyship - bought back in today after seeing your recent comments on Q3 and Chewy.

Looking forward Q4 is obviously of more concern. As I type the Chewy share price is $38, and in the notes to Q1 last year, it states that the drop in this share price from $102 to $80 cost ICGT £17M in local currency and £16M in £s - so unless they have reduced their holding or there is a substantial turn round in the remaining 6 trading days, that will cost - Ouch!

[skyship] 07/1/2022 16:09

Strath - Valid point, Chewy has been a dog for ICGT, but in Q3 they only (only!) fell 10.7%. Down another 35% since, inc 8% today!

[strathroyal] 07/1/2022 15:09

Skyship - I bought some of these just before xmas at 1269p but sold again this week when it passed 1300. Whilst I would agree with your overall view (I originally bought thinking NAV must now be over 1650), I've come out because the Chewy share price is performing quite poorly and at 7.5% of NAV, can't help but think this will have a negative effect on the next update.

[skyship] 07/1/2022 14:34

Just posted this on the PE thread. ICGT @ c1300p may be a good trading opportunity ahead of their Q3'21 result - not due until c4th Feb (last year's date).
=======================================================================

Glad there has been this discussion today; made me take a look at the lagging return from ICGT.

Firstly, it would be a monumental surprise NOT to see a strong result for ICGT's Q3 to Oct'21.

Consider these stats from peers:

HVPE 3m return to Oct'21: + 10.9%
NBPE 3m return to Oct'21: + 12.4%
PIN 3m return to Oct'21: + 11.5%

So the 3m average is + 11.6%

That rise for ICGT would deliver an NAV of 1700p; whereas a slightly more conservative 10% would deliver 1675p. That translates to a discount at 1300p of 23.5% or 22.4%.

Accordingly I've bought a few at 1300p; and may buy a few more later.

Does anyone dispute my numbers?

[deadly] 01/11/2021 10:23

Very perky recently, more all-time highs.

[chester] 21/10/2021 07:52

SkyShip - I'm surprised you draw your Fib retracements from the closing prices. I have not met anyone who does that. I always draw Fib levels from price low to price high, eg Candlesticks.

I'm certainly not disputing that ICGT is a buy here.

[skyship] 19/10/2021 15:23

Posted this on the PE thread today:
==================================

ICGT – The annoying thing with ICGT is the quarterly rather than monthly NAV declaration.

At the July declaration of 1523p the discount at 1145p is a peer high of 24.6%. This versus 23.7% for HVPE on their September declaration; and on their August declarations – NBPE at 22.4%; PIN at 22.5% & SLPE at 21.1%.

Those 4 peers declared an average NAV gain of 5.4% in August; and the only September declaration thus far is HVPE at 2%.

So, it might be fairly safe to assume that the declarable NAV for ICGT may well be North of 1600p; and at that level the discount rises to 28.4%!

Coupling that with the fact that ICGT looks anomalously oversold after a recent pullback from the 1200p level; and is trading on the 38.2% FIB support level; I believe they warrant a BUY at the current level.

I have done so at an average of 1145p.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[its the oxman] 06/9/2021 14:09

Big of a marginal call.

[its the oxman] 06/9/2021 14:01

Just sold half. Discount closed a bit. Switched into hvpe. Still very positive for long term here.