Icg Enterprise Share Discussion Threads

[strathroyal] 21/1/2022 20:29

Skyship - bought back in today after seeing your recent comments on Q3 and Chewy.

Looking forward Q4 is obviously of more concern. As I type the Chewy share price is $38, and in the notes to Q1 last year, it states that the drop in this share price from $102 to $80 cost ICGT £17M in local currency and £16M in £s - so unless they have reduced their holding or there is a substantial turn round in the remaining 6 trading days, that will cost - Ouch!

[skyship] 07/1/2022 16:09

Strath - Valid point, Chewy has been a dog for ICGT, but in Q3 they only (only!) fell 10.7%. Down another 35% since, inc 8% today!

[strathroyal] 07/1/2022 15:09

Skyship - I bought some of these just before xmas at 1269p but sold again this week when it passed 1300. Whilst I would agree with your overall view (I originally bought thinking NAV must now be over 1650), I've come out because the Chewy share price is performing quite poorly and at 7.5% of NAV, can't help but think this will have a negative effect on the next update.

[skyship] 07/1/2022 14:34

Just posted this on the PE thread. ICGT @ c1300p may be a good trading opportunity ahead of their Q3'21 result - not due until c4th Feb (last year's date).
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Glad there has been this discussion today; made me take a look at the lagging return from ICGT.

Firstly, it would be a monumental surprise NOT to see a strong result for ICGT's Q3 to Oct'21.

Consider these stats from peers:

HVPE 3m return to Oct'21: + 10.9%
NBPE 3m return to Oct'21: + 12.4%
PIN 3m return to Oct'21: + 11.5%

So the 3m average is + 11.6%

That rise for ICGT would deliver an NAV of 1700p; whereas a slightly more conservative 10% would deliver 1675p. That translates to a discount at 1300p of 23.5% or 22.4%.

Accordingly I've bought a few at 1300p; and may buy a few more later.

Does anyone dispute my numbers?

[deadly] 01/11/2021 10:23

Very perky recently, more all-time highs.

[chester] 21/10/2021 06:52

SkyShip - I'm surprised you draw your Fib retracements from the closing prices. I have not met anyone who does that. I always draw Fib levels from price low to price high, eg Candlesticks.

I'm certainly not disputing that ICGT is a buy here.

[skyship] 19/10/2021 14:23

Posted this on the PE thread today:
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ICGT – The annoying thing with ICGT is the quarterly rather than monthly NAV declaration.

At the July declaration of 1523p the discount at 1145p is a peer high of 24.6%. This versus 23.7% for HVPE on their September declaration; and on their August declarations – NBPE at 22.4%; PIN at 22.5% & SLPE at 21.1%.

Those 4 peers declared an average NAV gain of 5.4% in August; and the only September declaration thus far is HVPE at 2%.

So, it might be fairly safe to assume that the declarable NAV for ICGT may well be North of 1600p; and at that level the discount rises to 28.4%!

Coupling that with the fact that ICGT looks anomalously oversold after a recent pullback from the 1200p level; and is trading on the 38.2% FIB support level; I believe they warrant a BUY at the current level.

I have done so at an average of 1145p.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[its the oxman] 06/9/2021 13:09

Big of a marginal call.

[its the oxman] 06/9/2021 13:01

Just sold half. Discount closed a bit. Switched into hvpe. Still very positive for long term here.

[ali47fish] 06/9/2021 12:56

oxman i 've been watching this one to invest - so I am wandering why did you sell

[its the oxman] 06/9/2021 12:22

Sold 1222p

[its the oxman] 01/9/2021 17:18

Nice close pushing up tight toward 1200p

[its the oxman] 11/8/2021 16:53

If Chewy can keep some momentum back above 90 dollars that will help as well.

[its the oxman] 09/8/2021 08:39

Legs for 1200p possible here. Can't see too much beyond that until next nav update.

[lomax99] 03/8/2021 14:17

U-POL is expected to generate approximately $145 million in annual sales in 2021, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of about 26%. We expect about $10 million of operating synergies to be realized over the next 18 to 24 months. And we expect a mid-teens 5-year IRR from the transaction. U-POL is expected to grow at rates faster than the core Axalta business over the period due to a strong pipeline of new products as well as benefiting from Axalta's global commercial infrastructure. The transaction is expected to close around the end of the third quarter or early in the fourth quarter.Axalta continues to drive improvement within all aspects of ESG. And we made solid ongoing progress in each aspect of sustainability during the second quarter. We continue to be a leader in the coatings space in our ESG scores, including strong ratings from IFS as well as receiving a AA leader rating from MSCI. We recently completed an ESG materiality assessment across all our key stakeholders and working to set new ESG goals that we look forward to sharing around the end of 2021. In the meantime, we continue to focus on our industry-leading waterborne coating systems, which improves sustainability, were adopted by customers globally, as compared with traditional paint systems.Moving on to business conditions. Second quarter demand conditions remained robust across most global industrial coatings markets, and the Refinish recovery also continued as anticipated. Refinish demand benefited from reduced COVID-19 restrictions in many countries where those restrictions were in place through the first quarter as well as the global increase in vaccinations, translating to improved Mobility and vehicle traffic. Refinish net sales increased 16% sequentially versus the first quarter, with net sales 3.5% higher than 2019 despite business volumes still below 2019 levels by roughly mid-single digits, with more room for upside before we return to normal conditions in that market.Industrial end market demand remained robust across nearly all end businesses and geographies. Industrial saw net sales growth increase by double-digits sequentially from both the first quarter as well as the comparable quarter in 2019, underscoring strong underlying demand, coupled with ongoing organic growth initiatives playing out positively for the business.Despite demand in excess of our original budget forecasts, further upside near term to sales forecasts could be hindered by constrained raw material availability in some areas and consistent with the dynamic in the second quarter.Light vehicle demand conditions are also solid at an underlying level, with strong retail vehicle sales in most regions, though auto production has been aggressively throttled back due to the ongoing semiconductor chip shortage. Vehicle production forecasts have continued to ramp down as the full realization of the magnitude and potential duration of the semiconductor supply situation has become apparent. There were approximately 5 million vehicles removed from the global full year forecast recently, including 2 million vehicles removed from the forecast during the quarter itself. This compares to the 1 million we had assumed in our original outlook for second quarter provided back in April.For the full year, we're now assuming production delays totaling around 7 million units versus our original assumption in April of approximately 2.4 million units. Looking forward, our assumptions have been reduced to assume no appreciable improvement in the supply situation through year-end and which could potentially continue into 2022 according to some forecasters. This revised assumption is now included in our updated full year 2021 earnings outlook.Commercial vehicle underlying demand remained robust through the quarter, with notable strength in North America, particularly with heavy-duty truck orders remaining firm in recent months. The strength in commercial vehicle reflects the broader global industrial recovery and is expected to continue near term. Axalta net sales were strong, though moderately impacted in the quarter by a customer strike. China remains the exception, with lower production expectations, though Axalta does not have significant sales in the China truck market currently.Regarding cost structure, the second quarter witnessed substantial variable cost inflation coming from oil and propylene benchmark materials as well as inflation in packaging, freight and logistics. The magnitude of this inflation as well as a lack of any previously expected relief has exceeded prior forecasts. And we now expect full year 2021 inflation headwinds around mid-teens versus the prior year at the variable cost of goods sold level compared to our previous assumption of high single-digits. We're working actively to offset inflationary cost pressures via a combination of incremental pricing actions as well as a focus on additional cost and productivity actions.

[its the oxman] 03/8/2021 12:34

Bit of catch up kicking in today , 1112p bid.

[killing_time] 29/7/2021 06:44

Chewy up nearly 5% last night.

[its the oxman] 28/7/2021 20:58

Share buyback should help nudge nav up another 0.5% to just under 1430p I think. More helpful, Chewy also showing some recovery.

[horseyphil] 28/7/2021 07:58

Makes sense for them to buy back any large blocks available at under 1100p. Directors have bought as high as 1122p.

[18bt] 28/7/2021 06:28

Quite a big share buyback. Hopefully removes a seller.

[skyship] 27/7/2021 14:55

Indeed, looks like a breakout from a fairly prolonged consolidation Discount still 23.7%, MACD just turning up, so could see these running to 1200 in the near-term:


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[arja] 27/7/2021 13:32

why the big move today and chart suggests a breakout ?

[horseyphil] 23/7/2021 09:23

Hopefully this will get behind the paywall

[ali47fish] 23/7/2021 08:54

horse any chance of a link to the IC note please!

[horseyphil] 23/7/2021 07:24

The combination of the tip in this week's Investors Chronicle and dividend reinvestment should see the price rise in the next few days.