Icg Enterprise Share Discussion Threads

[acol] 11/4/2024 14:55

A fairly hefty trade of 65K of shares just went through at exactly mid price and price remains static. Times like this I wish I had the advantage of level 2! Presumably the results are due out 2nd week of May.

[skyship] 20/3/2024 15:15

Back in at 1204 with a CFD - saves on that pesky SD!

[acol] 15/3/2024 18:22

Interesting indeed! Several other trades at a similar price including a buy of over 8K shares. Difficult to call this share at times but still very good value at these levels, imo.

[rimau1] 05/3/2024 16:46

I will correct you on Starling. It would have a fintech multiple because although it is a digital bank the high growth opportunity is licensing its platform and tech IP to other banks that want to start a digital footprint. So it has recently signed agreements in Australia, Poland and Austria.You can't price Starling with a bank peer group. On Klarna a $20bn valuation adds about 13p to NAV however the rerating is triggered by the fact that Chry will return all funds to shareholders rsther than reinvest so this will close the 40% discount to NAV

[donald pond] 04/3/2024 09:27

There's a useful Quoted Data puff piece on CHRY worth starting at. I find ICGT and HVPE a little frustrating (HVPE in particular) as they are so diversified that there's little point digging into the underlying assets. Which makes the discounts even more baffling when most markets are not only as all time highs but breaking out. I suppose PE valuations didn't go stratospheric in 21 (most HVPE realisations were at a 100% premium to carry value) or crash in 22, but surely they should be recovering sharply now

[apple53] 03/3/2024 17:50

Thanks Donald. Very interesting. It's had a nice double move, pre and post its last quarterly results/nav. I haven't tracked if starling newsflow was key to this. Klarna (of which I think it owns about 1%) had massively improved profitability recently, but even if it IPOs at its target (rather than the Softbank investment level), it will only add a few percent to NAV. Starling is interesting when you look at valuations of UK banks. Last results were 195m pre-tax. A peer valuation (it was year to March 23 so essentially 2022 normalised earnings multiples for peers) would only give them maybe £1.2bn valuation, vs £2.5bn at the last funding round. I think CHRY may have a valuation of £1.7bn (assuming a c. 10% stake), which may have been dragged down (ironically) by the Jupiter sale? Do correct me if I'm wrong. However, its growth to 2022 was immense, with revenue doubling and profit up 6-fold. Like its generation of neobanks, it grew deposits first but needed to lend to turn a proper profit. It's now doing that, but rapid lending growth carries risks (and I need to look at ex-ante provisioning for all the new loans, which should be a drag on profits in the year the loan starts).

I will try to look at the Starling P&L to see what the potential is for 2024 earnings and beyond. I should then try to post on CHRY chat rather than clogging up here.

Any IPO of Starling will be fascinating, given the historically low multiple of bank PEs. Maybe it will be priced as a 'tech-bank', but then help to drag up its peers when people start to see the light.

Re. CHRY clearly a 37% discount is sizeable, though I know nothing about other holdings.

[donald pond] 02/3/2024 21:20

Btw apple I think it is well worth looking at CHRY. It is to all intents and purposes PE fund and the concentrated PF means the valuation is clear. There are several routes to very sizeable uplifts: a quoted data report last month said an iPo of Starling could add 45p to the NAV. When the share price is 90 and they are committed to big buybacks when something sells it looks great value

[apple53] 02/3/2024 20:56

Sky- you are even worse than me. I WOULD take 3% on HVPE (and have taken less when I needed the cash), but on ICGT with STAMP!
I also sold APEO early, average 513p. Most of it went into OCI at 443 average, and a bit into CORD (along with some PIN proceeds) which I flipped already to buy (more) ONT at 135. I am sure I will regret the latter. PEIT can be volatile but ultimately you feel so much surer of medium term value than in 'growth' stocks like ONT.

Thanks for the buyback discussion Acol and Cousin. I take the points - ie 1) they did as much volume in one day as in the 27 transactions mentioned in the Q3 report for end October; and 2) yes they took the 22p hit to NAV to raise valuable cash upfront, and 3) given price performance since, they may indeed have cleared the overhang. The sacrificial sale ultimately meant that in local currency, they were down more than 1% in Q3 restated, saved by 3% currency benefit from a 5.5% fall in cable. It did mean we have an example of a PE firm selling BELOW carrying value. Hmmm.

July to October saw a 10% fall in world MSCI, so serious headwinds, even for conservative accountants. My real time estimate of ICGT's NAV is 2075, with the biggest factor being 45% of world MSCI's increase, partially offset by sterling strength. End Jan MSCI was almost 5% lower than now (though up 16% since October), so I guess I'm thinking around 2020 for end Jan. On the one hand I hate to think how much of World MSCI is driven by META and NVDA, and therefore that accountants will be cautious marking up PE portfolios. On the other hand I'm not building in much for real organic growth, which they normally achieve in spades. I own some ICGT but not enough. If HVPE went up £2 I would switch some. If it's still languishing round here, it has to be worth owning it for Q4 results.

If anyone has done any work on their actual holdings and their likely correlation (or lack thereof) with S&P, NASDAQ etc........

[skyship] 29/2/2024 13:11

ali - if you read both 339 & 340 you will understand the parlance of "a quick turn".

[ali47fish] 28/2/2024 21:58

what is a quick turn - dou you mean you bought

[skyship] 28/2/2024 16:11

Took a quick turn at 1227 - couldn't resist it with everything else going in the opposite direction!

[skyship] 23/2/2024 13:55

Sold my APEO too early on into the recent rise; but a good turn nevertheless as it hit target pretty rapidly.

Want to be back into another PE trust. Looked at HVPE due to the large discount; but hate management as they won't pay a dividend in a poorly disguised desire not to reduce their fees.

So, back into ICGT at 1190 versus the Oct'23 NAV of 1959. Discount at c39%; but likely higher as the Jan'24 NAV should be North of 2000p. Hate paying the 0.5% SD! I feel it shouldn't apply in a tax-free SIPP.


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[thinking] 20/2/2024 07:18

Good spot but no purchase since which is interesting as often there were daily repurchases announced.

[cousinit] 14/2/2024 15:15

Good spot Acol.

This is probably to demonstrate that selling some assets (which they say may lag the portfolio going forward) at a 15% discount to NAV is a good deal when you can use the cash to retire shares at a 40% discount.

With the other large trades a week or so ago, is there a chance that some of the overhang is being shaken out?

The buy back so far has been more nibbling at the edges. If it can now progress towards decent sized bites that might give the shares a boost similar to APEO.

[acol] 14/2/2024 15:04

This morning's notification of Companies share transaction must surely have a typo on the date which is shown as 13 January! It must relate to last night's purchase of 340,000 shares? A sizeable value purchase by any standard!
ICGT has been struggling to maintain its recent rise to around £12.50 a share. However, rightly or wrongly I remain optimistic that it will soon reflect a more realistic value.

[riverman77] 09/2/2024 09:53

Surely these PE 40% discounts are no longer sustainable given global markets have been strong over last year. I can see an argument for why NAVs were too high when markets fell heavily in 2022 and NAV may have to cut back, but equity markets now recovered all those losses. Also, ICGT still realising assets at average 30% uplift.

[1968jon] 08/2/2024 13:13

9.22 the time (this morning)
Five trades printed at a price of £12.
Clips of 45,893, 179,353, 174,754, 356,946 and 356,605 shares. Admittedly the two 170k prints and the two 356k prints might be two sides of the same trade.
Probably means nothing and clearly hasn't positively impacted the share price yet.

[ali47fish] 08/2/2024 12:55

1968 what chunky blocs and whr is 9..22 for please

[1968jon] 08/2/2024 09:44

Some chunky blocks printed at 9.22. Would be nice if it presaged a move up....

[thinking] 25/1/2024 20:30

I think the discounts are well overdone especially in this fund, I am not sure what it is going to take to substantially narrow it?

[1968jon] 25/1/2024 10:15

One explanation given for the blowout in discounts for many PE trusts from high-teens/early twenties to high thirties/forties was a concern about the reliability of the valuations and the lack of any downward revisions as interest rates rose. Certainly if a fund had gone windmilling in to tech at the back of '22 in the final post-covid frothy blow off, they will have paid very fully. Like another trust I own, ICGs 4% NAV mark over 12 months seems steady as she goes. Absent (geo)political horrors, hopefully over the next year some of that market concern unwinds.

[18bt] 25/1/2024 09:58

Still looks good value on discount of 37% IMHO. Well diversified and uplift data suggest conservatively valued

[ali47fish] 14/12/2023 16:27

spangle i dont trade i invest- which one did you mean

[spangle93] 14/12/2023 15:59

Technical analysis alone would suggest that on recent cycles with improving baseline, now would be a good time for anyone trading the stock to buy in