I3 Energy Share Discussion Threads

[showme01] 01/7/2018 15:23

Caters. Great to meet you too at the AGM. Possible, the next AGM could include a vote to accept £13 cash per share:-))))

[caters] 01/7/2018 15:17

Perhaps the AGM the other day was i3's first as a listed company but also its penultimate ;-)

[showme01] 01/7/2018 13:24

Cash. A simple answer is no. Chatting to Neill after the AGM he said they have plenty of work to do proving up and getting Liberator into high number production. I think looking for other assets was only the case if they lost out on the 30th round block. This block has more potential than they are letting on imo. Neill also said in the Q and A that there are blocks surrounding Liberator that have similar characteristics to Liberator and these could be also be a possibility in the future. I guess by way of the 31st round bid. If i3e can get Liberator producing big numbers with nice big tax bills, I am sure it would make sense for the OGA to award blocks surrounding Liberator especially as i3e have already been doing research and analysis on them.

Personally I get the feeling that i3e won't be here in 2021, maybe 2020. This will be very attractive to larger oil companies in the North Sea with tax losses to offset against what will be a very lean and profitable i3e. Just my thoughts :-)

[cashandcard] 01/7/2018 13:06

Showme01, Caters & others,Great discussion here this weekend. I think it was mentioned here before that NC & GH were conservative with 13/23c RF numbers, when looking at the immediate analogue = Blake. I would not rule out the possibility of 100mm bbls across our licensed blocks (perhaps more if all goes to plan), this is before we take into account other prospectivity in the new license (Wester Ross discovery made in the very southern tip of the block). Looking at the chronological order of events, they have played a blinder here holding out for 13/23c. If as you indicate the JV counterparty want to remain anonymous until a deal is concluded & GH clearly said they will announce details in July, I would imagine the Sale/Purchase agreement is going to be tied up very soon. I have a question; were you able to glean anything with regards to potential acquisitions on the production front, is that still part of the overall strategy and (if so) are they actively screening projects?Cash

[showme01] 01/7/2018 12:50

What surprised me most about the AGM was that all private investors there were mainly from the North of England and one from The Midlands. I am a big fan in following my money and finding information out first hand rather then from a board like this.

[showme01] 01/7/2018 12:47

The JV partner did not want to be named until concluded. It was not i3e to call. Regarding the % increase Euclid, that is something that was stated in the Q and A at the AGM. Nobody asked why. I think the directors have been playing down Liberator until they secured the block in the 30th round. When I say think, they actually said they were. They are playing a great hand here. Accumulate under the radar and then prove everything up.
They seem very confident in proving up the prospective oil and equally confident the reserves will be higher as well as the extraction percentages. Neill seems to have a sound understanding of the quality of oil and geology plus they have the skills of the geologist that found this for Dana.
As much as this has been under the radar, it won't be much longer IMO.

They said that they expect to announce the terms and JV partner in July, the 90 days was just a safety net for both parties.

[begorrah88] 01/7/2018 11:57

Being in an exclusivity period is no restriction to naming who the potential JV partner is.

Often it is stated at the outset

[euclid5] 01/7/2018 11:48

Hello Showme,

Recall CPR stated why the RF wasn't like Blake's % - so how has that now changed?

Id they are in a exclusivity period, why would they reveal the JV partner in July?then

46mmbls is the prospective in LW2 licence - that still requires a appraisal well to prove up to 2C

Very good posts

[showme01] 01/7/2018 11:40

Caters, when I spoke to Graham on the phone quite a few weeks ago, he said no more convertible debt. No need as it was purely a means to get capital to build up the asset to secure more favourable JV terms.

[caters] 01/7/2018 08:06

There is a small chance that the JV partner gets a slightly better deal than we may be expecting and/or that some debt is in the funding mix.

IF that happens, some investors may see that as a disappointment. I won't. I'll see it as a necessary step that NC & GH have taken to get Greater Liberator proved up and producing.

I'll be reassured by the point Redmirres has made that there is probably way more than 80mmbbls here. NC & GH may have to trade away a little bit more than initially planned, but that deal will access far more than 80mmbbls.

Please note - NC did say at the AGM something to the effect that the JV deal was in alignment with previous guidance - it's just a question of what tolerance there is within "in alignment".

(Edit: Mr T's post has jogged my memory. At the AGM, iirc GH said that the deal was non-dilutive, so I've removed the words about new convertible debt.)

[mr. t] 01/7/2018 07:54

Great to meet you too showme. Caters, there may or may not be a split in the future. One thing though, the CEO and CFO make a point of having only 40m shares in issue - they're proud of the fact. They don't want to dilute shareholders, partly becuase they're big shareholders themselves. Adds to i3e's attraction - management who make decisions with shareholder value creation in mind.

[caters] 01/7/2018 07:35

This will go a lot higher than £5. The question will then be about having a 1 to 10 share split to improve liquidity once the price is north of £10 ;-)

(Imo, I3E will probably have been sold before a split is really needed.)

[showme01] 01/7/2018 06:47

Mr T. It was great to meet you on Thursday. I can't see one negative here only a slight delay in confirmation on funding but the BoD seem very confident that all terms have been agreed, it is just a case of formalizing it now. With what they have planned next year, I'm happy to wait. Good points too regarding drilling technology since 2001.

[mr. t] 01/7/2018 06:35

Showme, you and redmirres make a good point.Blake rf has been 50% whereas i3e's CP reports have assumed 28% for Liberator reserves and 35% for Liberator West resources.The geology and oil is similar, so i3e has a good chance of getting Blake style rfs.Plus Blake came online in 2001. There are 17 years of technology innovation & improved geological understanding to improve on those rfs. I3e's updated fdp will be designed to maximise Liberator oil recovery and should be good news for shareholders.

[showme01] 01/7/2018 06:14

Just re posting a couple of things on twitter:-


Redmirres

@Redmirres

·

12h

.#i3e recoverable will be more like 140MMbbl due to Blake geology & historic production. Almost double the current projections

4

10

Redmirres

@Redmirres

·

12h

.#i3e tomorrow is July. GH said they would reveal JV partner and terms in July. This is where the true re-rate begins
My thoughts......
I'm so glad I went to the AGM. The comment of 140mmbbl in recoverable terms at Liberator would not suprise me. Neill always says he uses conservative figures and they have been very limited with information put out in the public domain so competition didn't latch on to the potential of the licence awarded in the 30th round.
Neill used the term several times on Thursday,' we play to win'.
He and Graham have demonstrated that to date. Having the Dana Petroleum geologist on board who discovered Liberator gives them a huge advantage and they have carried out additional research since.
I think proving the reserves on the 30th round award to 2p is a formality and then it really is a game changer. Initial presentations I attended by both Neill and Graham in the early days both played down Liberator and the fact they will continue to look for near term production assets moving forward. I asked the same question on Thursday and it's clear that their 100% focus is now proving up more reserves and a very aggressive drill campaign next year. Horizontal drills will maximize recoverable rates and Neill thinks they could easily recover nearer 50% due to the geology of the field.
It is clear to me where this is going. Prove up, drill programme executed and await for knocks on the door to buy this highly profitable lean business by one of the larger operators in the North Sea looking to offset tax losses. No more talk of looking for other opportunities. They know they are now sat on a huge cash cow. They also have no desire to be in i3e any longer than they need to imo after talking to them on Thursday. Cash out at the right price. How can they be any more aligned with their shareholders! I've removed most of my sell limits now mostly around £5. I'm in until the end.
Once funding is confirmed, this is no longer speculative. I can't wait to see the broker notes on real value after that.

[cashandcard] 29/6/2018 16:06

Coscos, #2710


Yep, market will eventually have to take notice of the underlying case here.

Some will sell, others are waiting in the wings.

The markets natural pruning process, all par for the course.


Cash

[ducati2345] 29/6/2018 14:04

Wish I had cash to have hit some but regrettably bought most of mine 8 months ago, so had to pay 40p what a bummer

[coscos] 29/6/2018 13:44

That's just gloating.....8-)

[tiler1] 29/6/2018 13:37

Added 20K yesterday @ 0.97 Bargain.

[caters] 29/6/2018 13:31

I added another 10k under £1 :-)

[coscos] 29/6/2018 13:18

MM's have played a blinder here last 3 days. Glad I didn't sell anything.

[5chipper] 29/6/2018 13:14

Looking good for a sunshining Friday afternoon when most traders are surely in a beer garden :))

[che7win] 29/6/2018 13:08

They are desperate for shares, any buying here and they jump the ask.

[coscos] 29/6/2018 12:51

Anything under 110p is a steal.