Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 14/10/2021 13:59

Wrong, I do have academic knowledge of the subject.

I have material skin in the game on others in this Sector:
PANR 20%
TXP 11%
JSE 8%

Smaller holdings in:
AEX
RKH
CHAR

I've been investing in this sector for 22 years now, so do think I've picked up a lot of knowledge along the way.

[kooba] 14/10/2021 13:55

Interesting so without any academic knowledge on the subject you pontificate endlessly for your own "intellectual" interest. Really just another BB poster full of bull then but with zero skin in the game..a very strange one.

[pensioner2] 14/10/2021 13:41

Why are they holding the quote above the spread? Are they expecting some US action shortly?

[mirabeau] 14/10/2021 13:32

'We continue to engage with all our key stakeholders regarding our financing arrangements as we concentrate on removing the debt burden as well as extracting further value from Lancaster and our other discoveries."

'extracting further value' and 'our other discoveries'. Either production or monetisation but which 'other discoveries'?

Sounds like asset sales or development, take yer pick but the change in tone is marked and now very forward looking

[ngms27] 14/10/2021 13:24

I thought I'd make it clear I'm intellectually fascinated by HUR as it has everything. BoD's selling shareholders down the river, BB posters full of bull. Billions of barrels of oil to a few million.

[linz22] 14/10/2021 13:20

It's the epitome of a troll.
Engaging jus encourages it.
Just filter and have done ...

[tradoil] 14/10/2021 13:15

Walter Mitty

[kooba] 14/10/2021 13:05

You disagree with the board the bondholders ( note the basis of restructuring was extending redemption to hoover up revenues past existing redemption date) and obviously CA on how this pans out , you seem a lone figure of doom but for what reason ..attention ..quite possibly, because you are short ..unlikely, because you care about other investors...preposterous..as you might have already cost some if they had followed your advice...so what is it that compels you to post half baked negative scenarios in perpetuity irrespective of your previous rotten calls. Just interested in your motivation.

[ngms27] 14/10/2021 12:47

So by my calcs the Q2 Well 6 performance alone was 27.97% water cut. So will average out around 31% for Q3 I'd think.

Given we are 2 out of 12 weeks into Q4 and it's at 35% it's not unreasonable to suggest something in the order of 37% for Q4.

At this rate of growth next Summer looks like it could be approaching where well 7z got too without factoring in bubble point. HUR will be close to paying off the CB debt then with no residual cash for equity currently valued at £82m.

At that point how do they raise capital to have a shot at the attic or Lincoln without a large detriment to existing equity?

[jacks13] 14/10/2021 11:55

Ngms (30533) – some background to Qtr.2;

‘As part of the Company's periodic well testing programme for reservoir management purposes, the field is currently producing from both the P6 and 205/21a-7z wells. Immediately prior to the testing programme, the field was producing from the P6 well alone at a rate of c.11,600 bopd on artificial lift via electric submersible pump, with an associated water cut of 28%.’

Operational and Financial Update
19 April 2021

and,

‘As of 7 June 2021, was producing 11,020 bopd from the P6 well alone with an associated water cut of 31%. On 8 June 2021, the electric submersible pump ("ESP") in the P6 well tripped causing the well to be shut in. The well is currently on natural flow while the cause of the trip is investigated and the ESP's electrical system is tested ahead of an attempt to restart the ESP. Further announcements will be made in due course.’

Operational Update
10 June 2021

I did a thumbnail estimate at the time that I have now unearthed, which calculated that for a period of about nine days Well 7 was producing at a water cut of approx. 80%;

Apr 2021
Well 6 303 116 419 27.7%
Well 7z 19 83 102 81.4%
EPS overall 322 199 521 38.2%

[cashisking76] 14/10/2021 11:19

The old BoD lied, cheated HUR shareholders from day 1 and deliberately suppressed the HUR share price here by 95%+ via every crooked methods possible, however, now with a new clean Board of Directors in place along with $85 Brent, HUR should be a multibagger going forward.

[luckyjoe999] 14/10/2021 11:11

Post from lse bb today:

FatSam82
Posts: 211
Price: 4.636
No Opinion
Today 10:50

RE: HUR - The Most Undervalued Share In FTSE AIM All-Share

"Hurricane Energy is now clearly on the path to recovery (especially from the Ex-BoD crooks!), upside potential here by far outweighs any downside risks at these valuations, and hence HUR’s true market cap rally towards more realistic levels is only about to commence along with that of Brent"

Great update here from HUR today with PoO now rapidly approaching $85 mark, Ex-HUR BoD should clearly be in jail (especially McTiernan), and HUR share price should and will soon be back in double figures where it's MCap belongs.

[ngms27] 14/10/2021 10:50

Big hike in water cut Q2 is what stands out.

Note these are averages for the period NOT the current rate.

Q3 will include the shut in which will have benefitted oil recovery and reduced water cut. Only now is normal service being resumed.

[kooba] 14/10/2021 10:40

You seem to know your onions here. Thanks for post.Very true on the future past well 6 too...mention of third partner in Lincoln but Spirit still unresolved.You would think private equity might be looking as spirit is a sizeable producer in an energy focused world right now.But company should be expansive on future business model not focus entire on repaying the debt.

[jacks13] 14/10/2021 10:35

Here's the OGA production data shown in a quarterly format;

Qtr Oil bbl/qtr Water bbl/qtr Water Cut
2-2019 528,206 21,758 4.0%
3-2019 1,418,956 94,343 6.2%
4-2019 1,071,092 124,833 10.4%
1-2020 1,357,278 275,538 16.9%
2-2020 1,301,752 353,204 21.3%
3-2020 1,247,332 424,228 25.4%
4-2020 1,172,760 388,552 24.9%
1-2021 1,010,401 345,080 25.5%
2-2021 994,237 461,695 31.7%

[steve73] 14/10/2021 10:21

It looks to me that over the past year (or more) that they've been holding the total liquids production flowrate at around 16,000 bpd.

The drop in oil rate has been simply as a result of the steadily increasing water cut.

If the recent trends continue, we might expect the oil rate to be c. 10.1k at year end, 9.7k end Q1, and 9.3k by end Q2, (represents w/c of 38%, 41%, & 44%). With w/c remaining less than 50% there should be no problem in keeping the well stable, and providing the OP stays high operating costs will be more than adequately covered, with the bond repayment easily met.

Extrapolating the declining FBHP does suggest Bub Pt will be reached during Q1 if total flowrate is maintained at 16kbpd. There will be some operational flexibility to cut back total flowrate to reduce drawdown (and so increase FBHP a little), but this would obviously drop the oil rate a little further.

But the risk remains that the ESP could fail at any time and lose all production...

And there has still been no mention of plans for further development, since this is where future value will come from.

[jacks13] 14/10/2021 10:16

telbap (30515) - OGA data to July 2021

month - Oil bbl/d Water kbbl/d water cut
May 2019 5.952 0.145 2.4%
Jun 2019 11.457 0.575 4.8%
Jul 2019 14.294 0.752 5.0%
Aug 2019 14.803 0.962 6.1%
Sep 2019 17.233 1.374 7.4%
Oct 2019 13.928 2.162 13.4%
Nov 2019 8.318 1.698 16.9%
Dec 2019 12.574 0.222 1.7%
Jan 2020 12.638 0.449 3.4%
Feb 2020 13.883 3.456 19.9%
Mar 2020 18.159 5.206 22.3%
Apr 2020 17.930 6.423 26.4%
May 2020 13.119 3.824 22.6%
Jun 2020 11.907 1.399 10.5%
Jul 2020 15.852 9.079 36.4%
Aug 2020 13.121 2.455 15.8%
Sep 2020 11.641 2.223 16.0%
Oct 2020 14.131 4.058 22.3%
Nov 2020 11.854 4.880 29.2%
Dec 2020 12.230 3.754 23.5%
Jan 2021 12.042 3.922 24.6%
Feb 2021 11.726 4.145 26.1%
Mar 2021 9.961 3.467 25.8%
Apr 2021 10.750 6.621 38.1%
May 2021 11.372 4.807 29.7%
Jun 2021 10.641 3.803 26.3%
Jul 2021 4.781 1.878 28.2%

[sji] 14/10/2021 10:13

Ok, so let's assume that P6 will soon dry up.

IMO, all we need is for P6 to continue to perform until HUR settles the Convertible Bonds. Then, HUR will be left with no performing wells but with NO debt - a similar situation when it all started several years ago with the difference that today HUR has an FPSO and all the necessary infrastructure in place with a lot more research in hand.

HUR will need "only" around $100m this time round (not $230m as last time) to drill a new well. Also, it will not take very long for the new well, if successful, to come onstream. Therefore, I do not think that it is impossible for HUR to find the funding - from shareholders, banks, third party (as mentioned for the first time in today's RNS) etc to continue its operations.

[wbodger] 14/10/2021 10:12

Bonds have recovered essentially to parity:
hxxps://markets.businessinsider.com/bonds/hurricane_energy_plcdl-conv_bonds_201722-bond-2022-xs1641462277

There is no way another tender will attract any takers, so Philip Wolfe might look at a offer to extend the bonds on the same terms to 31/12/2024 (the present extent of the Lancaster licence). After COP26 they can look to get the licence extended, and perhaps raise funds for a full field development.

[tradoil] 14/10/2021 10:08

Your model . Hahahhahahaha .

[kooba] 14/10/2021 09:57

Ref bubble point..where to be fair you have been systematically wrong you are still confident in your model ( he he) to predict a New Year bubble point when the company itself with all the data.."Based on current trends, management estimates that wellhead flowing pressure in the Lancaster reservoir may reach the bubble point by the end of Q1 2022"Are guiding almost three months later ( does say by i grant you ..but also says may to be pedantic) ..their own assumptions having been pushed back very recently.Now I'm wondering who to believe here since both earlier models having been far too cautious..but you have to come third in a 2 horse race fella.

[ngms27] 14/10/2021 09:49

No at $40 oil when I posted my model I think it's not unreasonable to concider that HUR equity would have been wiped out with the years production we now see.

[tradoil] 14/10/2021 09:44

Zzzzzzz you have been wrong for 12 months . Keep up the good work .