Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ngms27] 14/10/2021 09:40

kooba,

Immediately prior to the shutdown in early July 2021, the P6 well was producing at 10,900 bopd with an associated water cut of 32%. Well gauge pressure minimum was
1,646 PSIA

As of 12 October 2021, Lancaster was producing c.10,450 bopd from the P6 well alone with an associated water cut of c. 35%. Well gauge pressure minimum was 1,629 PSIA

Bubble point is thought to be 1,605 PSIA

So to me it looks like bubble point will occur fairly close to the New Year, definitely within Q1 if production continues at these kind of rates.

I agree the shut in for maintenance allowed the reservoir to equalise with oil migrating towards the well bore hence enhanced production immediately after operations resumed.

Januarys production update will be key to how long the gravy train lasts.

[mirabeau] 14/10/2021 09:39

Kooba

My views are without significance, mere speculation

There is another explanation vis a vis Bluewater, that there could well be further developments at Lancaster that might necessitate changes with the FPSO's role at Lancaster

Either way, this company is now derisked further. I reckon a placing coupled with the free-cash now available will remove the indebtedness of the company and from thereon in it's a far rosier future

all spec on my part

[sji] 14/10/2021 09:39

For once, price of oil is giving us a helping hand (currently over $84 once again):

- for the first half of 2021, HUR realised a poo of $62.2/bbl
- for our August 2021 lifting, HUR realised $33m/505k = $65.35/bbl
- for our latest (October 2021) lifting, HUR should realise at least c.$75/bbl(IMO). So, 530k @ c.$75/bbl = c.$39.75m.

Given that most of the cash operating costs will have already been paid on 30th September 2021 (when HUR's cash stood at c.$73m), when HUR gets paid for their last lifting, HUR's cash should exceed $100m once again.

And HUR's next lifting is only 6 weeks away .... bringing in more free cash for the bondholders' settlement!

[pensioner2] 14/10/2021 09:08

Looks like a steady rise through the day from here imo.

[kooba] 14/10/2021 09:05

Most unlike you with a negative bias!!The water cut is returning to expected levels having fallen after the 2 week maintenance period when it dropped back several points it was expected to return to model.This is a very panicky executive...they are not highlighting anything untoward so i think you can rest your mind on this...they likely have more data than your model ..he he.Your other comments show zero ambition..ambition that is starting to resurface at a board level.Cheer up ..the share price has.

[mirabeau] 14/10/2021 09:00

i suggest u email the company then fella

[telbap] 14/10/2021 09:00

Anyone know the the water cut figures through the entire year ?

[kooba] 14/10/2021 08:58

A rolling arrangement would be great..doubt that would be available. They will require some surety on duration of contract i'm positive. Problem is there is no agreement at all past existing contract.As for CA view ..from end sept report and accounts."The Fund now believes that Hurricane must secure an extension with Bluewater Energy Services B.V. (from whom Hurricane leases the Floating Production Storage and Offloading vessel).This will secure the prospects of significantly increased free cash flow generation for equity holders.The Fund believes that a twelve month extension is required."So i seem aligned with them on this.

[telbap] 14/10/2021 08:58

Ahh that's where you are wrong NGMS27.......there a little thing called hope......at first it was a tiny glimmer, then we had the first buy back, and it grew brighter, now we have more positive talk that we can "bridge the gap" so clearly they are in negotiations with someone to fund what ever shortfall we will have. Still a little bit of a coin toss cos of the impending bubble point, however who knows when that will happen with total certainty?

[ngms27] 14/10/2021 08:56

Here's the issue:

17th September
PRODUCING C.10,800 BOPD FROM P6 WELL ALONE WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WATER CUT OF C.33%

12th October
As of 12 October 2021, Lancaster was producing c.10,450 bopd from the P6 well alone with an associated water cut of c. 35%.

So water cut has increased 2% in a little less than a month. Remember what happened with 7z as water cut started to increase more rapidly and the well started swabbing (became unmanageable) with water cut in the 50's.

It looks to me like this is a race to the bottom. Will they produce enough oil to pay off the CB's and if they do what will equity get given the market cap hurdle of £82m to support the current price?

If they decide to go for Lincoln etc what dilution and risk will this be for equity?

In my opinion this is all about not being caught holding the baby, enjoy the positive news flow for now, but how long will it go on for? Could some material upside in the next few months admittedly until realisation bites IMHO.

[pensioner2] 14/10/2021 08:53

The sell the news brigade must be pretty near finished now.

[bill hunt] 14/10/2021 08:49

Hopefully, the next RNS is the completion of the extension of the Aoka Mizu.

[tidy 2] 14/10/2021 08:38

Shorts on fire? Ouch

[bobsworth] 14/10/2021 08:35

Shorts must closing their positions now!

[officerdigby] 14/10/2021 08:34

OK if we all breathe together and push we can deliver our 5p+ HUR baby this morning.

[tradoil] 14/10/2021 08:29

Hahhahahhahahhahahhahahahahahahahhahaha

[officerdigby] 14/10/2021 08:27

auction baby. Indeed.

[wbodger] 14/10/2021 08:25

We don't know whose backing Maris has, all we can go on is what he writes. It always seems pessimistic.

This was not a time to be rehearsing recent history, to be ignoring the effect the cram-down would have had on his principal readers, the shareholders. He needs to explain why his Board backed a move to wipe out shareholders' interests and admit some expensive misjudgment.

He needed to tell us that he plans to hand over the reins soon.

[ngms27] 14/10/2021 08:25

Nothing whatsoever has changed. Nothing new in the Rns.

[marmar80] 14/10/2021 08:24

Nice. About ve 4.70 which I expected yesterday :)

[mirabeau] 14/10/2021 08:18

Kooba

It doesn't appear to be an issue for Bernstein or Wolfe. CA added to their holding only this week. Honestly, I don't believe it now represents a risk but now a rolling arrangement between HUR and Bluewater

imho

[cyrilsneer1] 14/10/2021 08:18

Be really interesting to see if any institutions start buying a stake here, very risky but if we do see it, I think this will go ballistic.Where's ngms and fandango today?

[mirabeau] 14/10/2021 08:17

HUR's become a superb turnaround stock, a proper 'buy the dips' stock