Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[ltinvestor] 10/1/2020 12:41

Chessman2.Notice that you follow me...I shall have something really special in February which you may care to look at...Still in here btw but only just.

[tournesol] 10/1/2020 12:36

ngms

...Are they suggesting…

No. It's only you who is suggesting that.

You are projecting your own thoughts onto other people and trying to read between lines even when there is nothing there to be read.

Stiefel will of course be in close contact with HUR and will base their analysis on the totality of their understanding which derives from long and intimate contact with HUR. That doesn't mean they are infallible. But nor does it mean you can impute hidden meaning. If they wanted to say that there was water breakthrough they would say so. But they don't. That little voice you can hear whispering "water, water, water" is actually inside your own head not Stiefel's.

[m5] 10/1/2020 12:30

Pulling too hard == coning?

That's what my GP said.

[ngms27] 10/1/2020 12:23

Pulling too hard == coning?Are they suggesting this might be the case given the proximity of the wells and that productions only from a small section?

[m5] 10/1/2020 12:05

Agreed chessman2. Still at very strong support levels, might not be anything too exciting happening but surely represents good value at these levels if you are prepared to wait.

I thought this was the AA thread for a bit!!!

[sji] 10/1/2020 11:56

Today it's DAY 19 since the last cargo (on 22nd Dec 2019).

If we're producing at 14,700 bopd and we ship the average 400,000 barrels per cargo, we should produce such cargo in around 27 days.

So, keep an open eye on marine traffic from late next week for tanker activity around the Lancaster field!

[chessman2] 10/1/2020 11:32

Without doubt Stifel would have been fed that information by the company.

I'm therefore continuing to hold as HUR represents good value to me.

[ffsadvfn] 10/1/2020 11:01

PC01 Lse

Stifel research FYIToday 08:13

Summary
2019 saw Hurricane move from being a zero revenue company to one that generated $80M CF in ~six months. We forecast a further $270M/yr CF in the coming years for a FCF yield ex-discretionary capex of 15%. Infill drilling should double output by 2022 and offers potential for >100% upside exclusively from brownfield projects entirely within the company's control, and on that basis we reiterate our Buy rating. We make no changes to financials in this note but move Warwick out of our Contingent Asset NAV, seeing more exploration drilling as necessary to move the asset forward, this results in a trim to our target price.

Key Points
Well performance strong but not exactly as expected. We think HUR's two Lancaster production wells are performing ahead of expectations in terms of productivity.

However, for now at least we think HUR can't take the risk of going gung-ho (i.e. producing >>20 kb/d from the two existing wells on the Lancaster EPS), because it believes doing so could pull too hard on the reservoir given the wells are effectively producing out of just one small area.
By contrast, what was expected pre-start-up was production from along the entire length of the two wellbores, thus less pull at any given point. Given the stellar productivity, we think had this been the case HUR would have had the confidence to significantly boost production this year.
We see two possibilities for fixing this and fully utilising its production facility (which can produce 40 kb/d once fully debottlenecked). Firstly, production data could persuade HUR that the reservoir actually can deliver >>20 kb/d from existing wells. This would be a great result since it is capex-free - it could be that we know this by the capital markets day scheduled for late March. Secondly, more wells draining the reservoir we think would give ample headroom to ramp up, but allowing time to drill these and tie in means it's a 2021 event at the earliest, and would cost perhaps $100M all-in.

Fully funded to generate $400M annual CF by 2022. 18 kb/d of production at $65 oil in 2020 we see generating $270M in Operating CF - note, our financial forecasts to 2021 are unchanged today. Even at $50 oil we think this funds the work programme to 40 kb/d gross production (Figure 1 provides an illustrative cash bridge). The result would be a business generating c.$400M in annual OpCF in 2022, with a more robust production base of up to four wells rather than just two currently, and with the work programme fully under the control of the company without recourse to the capital markets.

Target trimmed from £1.20 to £1.

[jacks13] 10/1/2020 10:57

Quite. But I'd prefer to wait for confirmation by way of an RNS that says the PBLJ is being deployed on Lancaster in the Spring.

[excell1] 10/1/2020 10:49

To me it's obvious that HUR had a large say in this Stifel's note.

[thegreatgeraldo] 10/1/2020 10:45

jacks13
10 Jan '20 - 10:36 - 7697 of 7698
0 0 0

The note might be all Stifel's own work with no input from the company and it doesn't really add to what we already know. The value in the note rests purely, I think, on whether or not Hurricane have had a hand in coaching the authors.

..Not sure which note this is, but strikes me it would be pretty odd for a company broker to put out a note without talking quite closely with the client company

[fionascott1234] 10/1/2020 10:43

I sold my entire collection in September having watched the value increase to ridiculous levels especially for my old Macallans. I achieved a profit close to my HUR holding at the time - lovely! This all tempered of course by the drop in the HUR value since. Never mind boys, up 1/50p this morning.

[jacks13] 10/1/2020 10:36

Not something I am knowledgeable on flyinghorse1. Someone that does know will be along shortly I guess!
The note might be all Stifel's own work with no input from the company and it doesn't really add to what we already know. The value in the note rests purely, I think, on whether or not Hurricane have had a hand in coaching the authors.

[flyinghorse1] 10/1/2020 10:22

Anyone interested in Whisky have a look at the whisky auctioneers website (Perth Scotland based) and the past and current auctions for some mind boggling prices.

I often put a few bottles in for auction from my stash.

[flyinghorse1] 10/1/2020 10:20

Does anyone know if they have fibre optic DTS in the wells horizontal section to see the producing intervals? They seem to know the size of them -cant think how else in a horizontal, short of running production logs (not easy in a subsea well).

Jacks13,
The wells were stated as having world class PI--circa 200(thats bbls /day/psi) from memory. So 14000bopd is only 70psi drawdown--thats nothing so point 2 above does not make sense
FH

[thegreatgeraldo] 10/1/2020 10:16

maretto1
10 Jan '20 - 08:23 - 7691 of 7693
0 0 0
My friend is in the whiskey business.. very profitable ..
It’s the new billionaires play ground.

..The gin business probably has far higher margins & seems all the rage currently

[jacks13] 10/1/2020 09:45

PC01 over on the lse board has posted some details of a note from Stifel that adds some clarity, if based on company advice.

Problem appears to be the limited sections of 6 and 7z that are producing; effectively a single well. Driving production harder risks watering. To extract more oil and fully utilise Aoka Mizu's facilities (post de-bottlenecking), two options are, they suggest, being considered:

1) current reservoir response may convince Hurricane that Lancaster wells can be driven harder, or alternatively
2) drill two more wells to reduce drawdown at each well location(c $100mil inc tie-in costs, circa 18 month timescale). Fully funded from cashflows.

[telbap] 10/1/2020 08:28

& Steve, just think, a few bottles of our special brew and you could charge your own phone!

[amaretto1] 10/1/2020 08:23

My friend is in the whiskey business.. very profitable ..It's the new billionaires play ground.

[steve73] 10/1/2020 08:11

Much of the aquifer water from many reservoirs are trace radioactive (Strontium/Radium/etc.) and coming from a granite I would certainly expect the same from this. It might give a slight glow-in-the-dark hint, and probably a hell of a hangover as well.

[amaretto1] 10/1/2020 07:49

I'm actually dreaming Water :-)

[ngms27] 10/1/2020 07:35

I'm all for a Dr Trices Triumph but it will have to be taken with 25 to 30% of water which for some is unpalatable.

[bountyhunter] 10/1/2020 07:16

"Aoka Mizu" would go down well with the Japanese who love Whisky.

Translated from the Japanese it means "Blue Water"!!!!!

[kaos3] 10/1/2020 03:51

"Stubborn Elk"