Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[maddog68] 01/6/2019 22:06

Boyzee I'm a gutted Tottenham fam at the moment.

[whitegold1] 01/6/2019 17:43

Madog ... one things for sure ... the share price wont go in a straight line. Lots of names come and go here on lse/ii - traders in the main...many return ...you for instance. Many played for hookup ... now foil...then the 2 big ones ... field performance and Warwick ...plus of course take over rumours. We.ve seen some whopping trades recently - anything could be happening. Good luck fella...mkts need all types.Boyzee

[gibso6767] 01/6/2019 16:24

Mmmm lots of massive trades on Friday out of hours , either taking a stake or in it for £1 plus

[twixy] 01/6/2019 14:50

As quick as it spikes it will sell off on foil imo.Coming from the man too nervous to even hold premium Bonds.

[fionascott1234] 01/6/2019 14:39

I agree.It is around 30 months since the news of the Hurricane potential went global and now on the brink of great things the serious manipulation will kick off in parallel.

[maddog68] 01/6/2019 12:56

As quick as it spikes it will sell off on foil imo.

[the guardian] 01/6/2019 12:41

Thanks fireplace, reading the article again, you are right.

[bloodhound] 01/6/2019 11:23

More detailed version of yesterday's Times article:

"Should it succeed in de-risking the development concept, that could unlock in excess of 2.5bn barrels in resources, with the bulk of those coming from Lancaster.

Berenberg pegged the full de-risked value of GWA and GLA - assuming successful development - at 280.0p per share."



BH

[fireplace22] 01/6/2019 10:28

TG, Aren't the falling oil prices we see the forward prices for delivery in the months coming? What it's saying is that 'real' oil for delivery now is selling at a premium to the forward price. ie indicative of a short term shortage which they predict to disappear when the world economy slows later due to Trump etc.

[the guardian] 01/6/2019 08:56

Thanks steelwatch but I'm confused.com.

The factors that are influencing higher oil prices in the future are the same factors that are influencing falling oil prices now.

If anything, I am expecting the China / USA tariffs to cause a fall in oil demand as time goes on and hence lower poo. The tariffs on Iran and Venezuela are likely to remain unchanged, so I fail to see the logic.

I would appreciate it if someone could explain this in a few simple words.

[laserdisc] 01/6/2019 08:01

GRAMPIAN SOVEREIGN
Left Aberdeen yesterday for
AOKA MIZU, Offshore Oilfields arrival 4pm today
and 1 Flight this morning to TL and AM

PAGE 14 Operating leverage bareboat charter etc, worth a read again $50 oil profitable

[steelwatch] 31/5/2019 23:44

Tumbling spot price of oil does not tell full story, say traders

Premiums for prompt delivery are at five-year highs, suggesting a tight market

Brent crude lost more than 10 per cent in May to fall back below $65 a barrel, as fears over the worsening US-China trade war rattled investors and put oil on course for its worst month this year.

But traders are warning that the spot price is not telling the full story. Instead, some are pointing at the way oil prices are moving for contracts on different delivery dates to tell a more nuanced tale. Brent contracts for the next few months are trading at large premiums versus those for delivery later this year — a classic sign of tightness in the market.

This could trigger a rebound in oil, should tensions between the US and China begin to ease.

“The reality is the physical market is extremely tight right now,” said Amrita Sen at Energy Aspects. “The problem for the spot price is [that] it is weighed down by economic concerns, which have been compounded by longer-term fears about US shale growth and the strength of demand. It is a battle between the tightness in the market right now and future fears of oversupply.”

The relative lack of oil supply can be seen most clearly in two closely watched spreads. The Brent contract for next-month delivery is trading at roughly $1.30 a barrel above the one for the following month, while its premium over contracts for delivery six months later has reached almost $4 a barrel.

In both cases that is the largest premium in at least five years. Put another way, the last time traders were prepared to pay this much extra to secure barrels, crude was trading closer to $115 a barrel and Isis was rampaging across swaths of northern Iraq, putting at risk supplies from Opec’s second-largest producer.

This time the tightness stems from US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, while Opec and its allies have been cutting output to try to boost the price.

Russia, which has largely aligned with Saudi Arabia on oil policy for the past three years, has also seen its supplies hit by organic chloride contamination in one of its main pipelines to Europe.

But if the market is so tight, it raises a question: why is the spot price falling, even as it remains strong relative to contracts for later this year?

Traders point to a host of reasons, such as signs that US shale output is still growing rapidly, and pressure from US president Donald Trump on Opec to boost supplies to help keep prices low.

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But traders are also anticipating that the US trade war could slow the world economy and weigh on oil demand growth later this year. For that reason, crude is closely tracking global equity markets.

“The mood is now definitely risk-off and this is putting oil under pressure for the time being,” said Tamas Varga at oil brokerage PVM.

But Mr Varga warned that the supply and demand balances did not make for comfortable reading for oil consumers, assuming Opec keeps its supply curbs in place when it meets in June and nothing else substantially changes in the market.

The group’s current output, factoring in supply losses from Iran and Venezuela, is at present little more than 30m barrels a day, according to Opec’s own numbers, while demand for the cartel’s crude could be as high as 31.2m b/d, Mr Varga noted.

“Unchanged Opec production of around 30m b/d for the rest of the year would mean a drastic global stock draw for the balance of 2019,” he said, referring to inventory reductions of crude around the world.

Oil’s slide, analysts say, might therefore be shortlived.



With acknowledgement to colebrooke #45 on the ENQ thread:

[greyingsurfer] 31/5/2019 21:04

I can't see a leaky FPSO being much good for the SP, TG :)

[the guardian] 31/5/2019 20:55

The point is muddy that as you say, there are invariably differences in what is reported but 5 million barrels?

So, read the attached:


It states:

Facts Versus Myths
Don’t quote the myths, get the facts!

Myth: API only collects data from its members.
Fact: API collects data from members and non-members.

Myth: API’s WSB is an estimate while EIA’s report is a census.
Fact: Neither API nor EIA collect 100% of the data. Both publish estimates every week.

Myth: Sometimes respondents give API incomplete data.
Fact: API collects an exact copy of the data submitted to EIA. Respondents send data to API using the same weekly survey forms that EIA uses.

Myth: As reporting to API is voluntary, its estimates should be taken with a grain of salt.
Fact: It is true that companies voluntarily send API a copy of the data they send to EIA; however, the fact that they do so voluntarily is irrelevant. Both API and EIA are on record stating that their reported weekly data cover roughly 90% of the industry. Since API and EIA need only estimate the remaining 10%, differences in their weekly estimates can be largely attributed to statistical noise.

Myth: API’s WSB estimates are not accurate.
Fact: Both API and EIA publish extremely accurate estimates every week. In fact – when looking at recent data for Crude, Gasoline, and Distillate stocks – the monthly estimates are within 1% of each other about 81% of the time. To verify API’s WSB data accuracy, we urge analysts and reporters to compare our WSB to the definitive numbers published in the EIA’s Petroleum Supply Monthly.

[muddy_40] 31/5/2019 20:34

TG,

I have seen the API and EIA results change in the week.

API shows good draw for week..EIA no change or more

Following week, API no draw..EIA huge draw..

We could have this scenario this week.

Really none of the two are the best and only indicators. So we might get a bounce next week.. but the biggest bull in the room is Trump and tweets.. I would not be surprised to see Saudi comment on POO soon, we all know they need about the $80 mark for there economy..

[pumph] 31/5/2019 19:56

Likewise, surprised at no recovery towards the end of the trading day, but hopefully exciting news next week and lots more detail via AGM presentations for those of us unable to attend.

Slightly nervous going on into this weekend, as there’s still an awful lot of work and proving of concepts to go yet. However, can’t wait for next news !

[freezer1976] 31/5/2019 19:54

Oil now 5% down... :-(

[the guardian] 31/5/2019 19:44

To me, yesterday's rise seems to have been down to two factors:

1. The API announcement that USA inventories were down 5.3 million barrels

2. The leaky FPSO

Today, the 'ahem' correction of the inventories by the EIA resulted in a lot of oilers being marked down but I was expecting HUR to recover this afternoon. Fingers crossed for an RNS on Monday.

There is something very dodgy about the 5 million difference in inventory figures produced by the API and the EIA. If the API is so unreliable, maybe it should cease giving out figures which influence the market. However, the cynic in me says that The Dictator of the USA does not like high oil prices, despite the fact that he has created them with sanctions against Iran and Venezuela. I know my conclusion.

Have a great weekend guys.

[gibso6767] 31/5/2019 19:01

Hi laser well I counted after hours north of 12,000,000 shares bought , so about 24,000,000 bought today .

Surely 7am bleep bleep sms telling us FOIL

[laserdisc] 31/5/2019 18:56

17:08:05
58.3169p
2,807,926
1.637M
17:08:05
58.3169p
5,789,334
3.376M
17:08:05
58.3169p
1,422,460
829.53k

[francis55] 31/5/2019 17:48

over 40% of todays volume or 15.5million shares reported after hours.RNS on route... Monday.Get on the wine fockers....

[whitegold1] 31/5/2019 17:48

Laser ...there are some jolly big other late reported trades ... jumboesque in fact. Blimey ...Boyzee

[ccr1958] 31/5/2019 17:46

Foil will come when it comes but I got a hunch it's massoooove .