Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[the guardian] 05/11/2018 10:28

The share price hasn't been down to 40p

[francis55] 05/11/2018 10:19

Anyone bought high miss your chance to amertise your price. I'm back in at 40p...substantially back in.

[mrx001] 05/11/2018 10:18

Thanks Steve73, very helpful update. Should give everyone a good handle on the timeframes. :0)

[telbap] 05/11/2018 10:16

Shorters in control now, going to be a rough ride now until we are hooked up and flowing oil.

[tsmith2] 05/11/2018 09:37

fwiw chart not looking good.

[telbap] 05/11/2018 08:30

Now we all need Ali trek patience, I will happen in its own time.

[the guardian] 05/11/2018 07:46

The AM is in safe waters and what happens next is down to the weather, so pointless to speculate.

[steve73] 05/11/2018 03:33

The AM was previously configured for upto 11 riser slots, and I would have expected the production manifold to have been configured to suit. Since, as far as I know, there has not been any major modification to the production train, I would expect the AM to still be able to accommodate a couple of additional risers relatively easily. It would have made sense to have done anything minor that was needed whilst in Dubai, rather than at R'Dam, for a number of reasons.

As regards time from H-U to F-O. PMO's Catcher took about 10 weeks last year for 2 initial production wells, with the remaining wells, and gas and water systems taking much longer (3-4 months longer to 1st gas, IIRC). ENQ's Kraken the previous year was more like 3-4 months to F-O, took another 6+ months to reach stable production, and still not even close to design rate 1 year later.

I'm not suggesting the AM will be as bad as Kraken, but I think it's unrealistic to even suggest it will occur much faster than Catcher achieved.

btw, F-O for an FPSO is usually defined as a significant quantity of on-spec oil passing into the cargo tanks. It's NOT first oil from the wells, or up the risers into the train, or even the first squirts of oily water into the slop tank, but the first 24hours or so of trip-free production into cargo tanks. Even if they then shut down again for a few weeks to sort out problem (again, I'm not suggesting this will occur here, but it HAS been known to happen in the past for political posturing).

As for deliberately deferring production, the idea is laughable.. And as for the Festive season affecting things.... the worst case would be perhaps an extended lunch on the 25th to allow for an extra helping of Xmas pudding, although perhaps any unforeseen problems requiring an urgent response from 3rd parties may affect thing, but I'm sure HUR management will have all the necessary contingency plans in place.

And of course the weather could well scupper all our best laid plans.

[mrx001] 04/11/2018 23:10

Thanks for your responses guys. Personally think the work in Rotterdam may take a bit longer, I think any work that needs doing will be done there, particularly re extra connections or whatever for the Spirit deal, as already suggested by David Black. I don't see it being held over for Christas/New Year. I believe they have already suggested they are going to take testing steadily hoping late January early February. I would be disappointed with anything running over into March. Having said that key to all of this is an early hook up, which is weather dependant. :0)

[francis55] 04/11/2018 22:11

Someone have a look at the trades after hours Friday. Might be a glitch on ADVFN or we have lost AM???

[greyingsurfer] 04/11/2018 19:44

I certainly wouldn't expect any deliberate delay to March, I can see no reason for that. But they might well stay in port somewhere nearer WoS waiting for a suitable weather window, if needed. As far as time between hook on and FOIL others here are better qualified, but I'd be fairly sure there will be a lot of very careful commissioning and testing first, and I wouldn't be surprised if it takes weeks rather than days. So March would not surprise me.

[chopsy] 04/11/2018 19:05

Thats crazy that sounds like deliberate delay to push FOIL to March. If they can surprise to the upside regarding FOIL date, no doubt in my mind they will.

[scoobydoo99] 04/11/2018 18:48

Realalemadrid- I'm with you on March. They'll want to keep the time between positioning in field and first oil to a minimum, bobbing around in the Atlantic using your own fuel and needing support vessels and helicopters is very expensive. Cheap berth for a few weeks could release the support vessels, maybe stay in Rotterdam, not sure if any of the spare jetties at sullom voe are still serviceable? Could berth off Lerwick but I think she'd still need the support vessels.

[whiteslice] 04/11/2018 17:49

I'll have a stab:
Arrive Malta 06.11 - dep Malta 09.11
Arrive Rotterdam 23.11 - dep 07.12
Arrive Lerwick anchorage 11.12

Dep 02.01 to 09.01 (weather dependant)
Arrive Lancaster 04.01 to 11.01(weather dependant)
FOIL 25.01 (My birthday ;-) )

Even factored in down time over the Festive Season but not a clue if this is applicable to this project given the commercial implications of FOIL.

Just a bit of fun - guesswork only.

GLALTH...

[chopsy] 04/11/2018 16:11

MrX I'm with you, given a fair wind I think it could still be January.

[hiddendepths] 04/11/2018 15:54

Fiona - yes.

[realalemadrid] 04/11/2018 15:16

8 weeks after hook up, that’s when the black gold will flow into our bank accounts...by my reckoning the AM will need a 4-6 week window for hooking up the Buoy, as you intimate should be routine in calmer conditions....as I say 17th March👍

[mrx001] 04/11/2018 14:00

Why are you guys estimating 10 weeks on site prior to first oil? I had thought connection would be fairly quick and then a few tests with increasing flow tests. Suppose a lot may depend on when one declares First Oil to be?

[fionascott1234] 04/11/2018 14:00

Rotterdam for erection and welding of stack and supports, yes?

[thanksamillion] 04/11/2018 13:48

Not in port if previous history to go by, bunkering for a few days offshore.

[damac] 04/11/2018 11:40

Steve73
4 Nov '18 - 04:23 - 34461 of 34462

Mt estimate is for AM to be on location & hooked up to the TMS by c. 1 Dec, and first oil sometime just before Valentines day.


My estimate on arrival at location is not far off yours. I think 1st December for arrival in Lerwick (assuming she will be stopping at Lerwick for last pick up of supplies). And first oil just before Valentine's day would be perfect, my birthday on the 13th.

Current destination is showing as Malta, anyone have any idea as to how long she will be in port and for what reason?

[realalemadrid] 04/11/2018 11:25

My estimate is 17th March 2019 for first oil.

[steve73] 04/11/2018 04:23

Mt estimate is for AM to be on location & hooked up to the TMS by c. 1 Dec, and first oil sometime just before Valentines day.

[davidblack] 03/11/2018 15:48

Many thanks

[gibso6767] 03/11/2018 15:09

Think the consensus was that there was very little if not minimal work on Akou Mizou whilst in Dubai regarding the Spirit Deal.

I’d say that The monetising Of HURs assets via production/ cash was imperative to fund 2019s Campaign.

A poster on lse thinks 2/3 weeks in Rotterdam, I was hazarding a week at most , I’d say that the time sailing from Dubai , etc has been planned for Rotterdam logistics , so slightly early erringbon side of caution .

Uncertain if support vessels WoS have been pencilled in