Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[senseman] 25/2/2024 17:55

From Corryvreckan1 (LSE) RE: DCU Today 16:00
Senseman - thank you for your calculations below. Important I think to highlight - for anyone less knowledgeable or just skim reading these posts - that the increase per offload you have given is an effective net gain over time from having more frequent offloads due to a higher production rate. They don't correspond directly to each 'individual' offload DCU payments that will be receivable, rather that there is a chance of more offloads contributing to each half yearly payment over time, so the overall position gets closer to the 12.5p total.

I have run some indicative calcs on what each offload could pay at current time. There are assumptions built in here because of various unknowns, and I haven't tried to guess what average Brent would be receivable in any specific month (it was $84.94 applied to the last payment = payment of 0.309p per DCU).

For costs I have taken those detailed in the Sept 23 payment notice as indicative for each offload. For total DCUs from the scheme documents - 1,991,871,556. FX I have used recent average estimate of 1.265 £/$ (it was 1.25 applied last Sept). Offload volume held flat at 540k bbl for ease of comparison.

Indicative possible outcomes per 540k offload:

$pbbl - Gross$ - Costs$ - Net$ - £/$ FX - Equiv £ - % due - Total due £ - per DCU

$75 - 40.5m - $1.9m - $38.6m - 1.265 - £30.52m - 17.5% - £5,340,336 - 0.268p

$80 - 43.2m - $1.9m - $41.3m - 1.265 - £32.65m - 17.5% - £5,713,854 - 0.287p

$85 - 45.9m - $1.9m - $44.0m - 1.265 - £34.78m - 17.5% - £6,087,372 - 0.306p

$90 - 48.6m - $1.9m - $46.7m - 1.265 - £36.92m - 17.5% - £6,460,889 - 0.324p

Consensus here last month was that the end Dec/into Jan offload was 'unlikely' to be included in the upcoming payment (so 2 offloads - c.0.6p total per DCU), and that 3 offloads were then likely for the Sept 24 payment. It's all moving targets though so these are all just best guesses and not to be taken literally.

Prax will pay out whatever they think they should pay out from their reading of the scheme document and we will know in a month's time exactly what that will be (payment is due Thursday 28th March).

Best to all, and all the usual caveats and pub rules apply to the above ;o)

[senseman] 25/2/2024 13:37

senseman today LSE 13:34 re DCUs
Crucial to whether we hit 12.5p.p.sh max via DCUs is whether Prax/HUR purchase current oil or gas producing assets under the HUR banner. Because profit from such is added to well P6 profits, from which our 17% DCU quantum flows. The promise was that purchase of such assets would be pursued in order that HUR's tax credits could be monetized.

A month ago I I expended several hours difficult grunt work ascertaining from 2 impeccable sources - whose position and interest would be advantaged to report that producing assets were being procured - that to date no such purchases had been attempted, and that no dialogue with any possible producing asset was currently occurring. Since I want and need DCU's to bring us 12.5p.p.sh total at least if not more so than most, it depressed me having to report what I had found. Intelligent readers know that if I report something as fact, it can be relied upon.

My reward for these endeavours was to be called a liar by our resident nutter - water off a ducks back since all identify him as such. Disconcerting however were insinuations from perennial resident lazies (my terminology) esk & broom that the nutter and I are made of the same stuff and, to quote esk...'...both poison to this B while the company was listed and are still at it now.' The 'lazies' never do any grunt work - never have. They mysteriously pop up whenever I post - with factually absurd, snide comment. Do they not realise how daft they sound to intelligent readers when similarly bracketing me and the nutter? Do they take you, the intelligent reader, for a fool?

The failure to purchase producing, profit-generating assets is already grievously damaging our chances of seeing us hit 12.5p.p.sh by the end 2026 cut-off date. We are currently looking at more like 9.5-10.0p total. Perhaps those who swore ('the lazies' included) that 'the deal' was great because we were nigh on certain to get 12.5p total might upon reflection exercise humility!.

Against this massive 'no-buying' disappointment, it has become clear within the grown-up ADVFN discussion Laser refers to - the essence of which I will copy & paste here in a subsequent post - that 2 green shoots of optimism are appearing, ie:

i) Nov 23 production 6870 bpd, against Prax/HUR projection 6700 bpd
Dec 23 production 6720 bpd, against Prax/HUR projection 6300 bpd
Jan 24 product not yet known, against Prax/HUR projection 5900 bpd
The import being more frequent offloads, hence more DCU cash. To illustrate - a 400 bpd increase over projections, equates to Brent price of $85 when compared with $80 projected
ii) Brent current $82, with most analyst projecting $85-$90 2024 Q2 Q3 Q4
The import - Brent at say $85 + $5 pb production increase = $90 pb
$90 x 540,000 = $48,600,000 x 17% = $8,262,000 divided by 2 bill shares = 0.413p p.DCU p.offload
$80 x 540,000 = $43,200,000 x 17% = $7,344,000 divided by 2 bill shares = 0.367p p.DCU p.offload

slava ukraina
senseman

[laserdisc] 24/2/2024 09:16

Tanker changed now sending AMUNDSEN SPIRIT
Position: 55° 27' 58" N, 5° 38' 24" E
Last seen: 2024-02-24 08:48 GMT
Location: North Sea, DK
Destination: LANCASTER O F
ETA: 2024-02-25 17:00 GM
draft 9.2m
then estimated Rotterdam Shell Terminal Europort for Weds 28th

[senseman] 23/2/2024 20:38

thanks fellas

[bionictroller] 23/2/2024 16:51

2 offloads = 0.7p payment in March

3 offloads = 1p ish

[laserdisc] 23/2/2024 16:39

yes my error on posting should read 6720.
As it stands presently we certainly have 2 offloads for the March payment they are
11/7/23 ALTERA THULE to Rotterdam refinary for BP est 533,000
& offload
15th October tanker Altera Wave to the port of Rotterdam.
Offload indicates around 539000 barrels

The December 25th Offload Altera Wind Completed on 2nd January & Estimated to be 524,000 i am not sure how this pans out for payment in March would be nice to have some if not all i dont know how they will treat accounting

[senseman] 23/2/2024 16:06

laser
thanks for donkey work and explicit directs - worked a treat. have printed off to retain.
unless am blind, to correct for accuracy you no consequence misread dec info, which says 6720 bpd not 6920
but main and crucial for us are 2 good indicators.
i) hur projection nov 23 6700 bpd actual 6870 bpd
dec 23 6300 bpd actual 6720 bpd
this means evidence building production depleting slower than hur/prax projections
meaning offloads more frequent - effectively equates to higher oil price if applied to hur/prax mickey mouse projections
ii) brent $82 with MOST forecasters saying $85-$90 for 2nd half 2024, and 2025
will copy and paste to LSE
laser - your view are we likely to get dcu 1 offload end march/early april (and 3 offloads in dcu payment end sept/early oct? or 2 offloads march/april and 2 in sept/oct?
sense

[laserdisc] 22/2/2024 15:09

i see 6920 per day on this website for Dec, as you say last offload completed 2/1 /24 this next offload is a bit early its up to them when they wish to offload brent rising so they should get a good price all helps dcu holders in due course any offload next week would go into the DCU calculation for 6mth ending June for payment Sept so can/t complain

The DCU payments will be paid biannually in arrears, approximately 90 days after
the end of each 6 month period (those periods ending on 30 June and 31 December each year

jacks1310 Aug '23 - 08:52 - 37750 of 37816
0 0 0


at bottom of screen;

Field Production Data, PPR (WGS84) select: 'Options'
from the drop-down menu select: Filter

A dialogue box will then appear, select: 'Add expression'

In the left-hand drop-down box select: 'Field name (String)'

Then in the third box type in Lancaster and click 'OK'

The data for Lancaster will appear

to download the data;

Select 'Options' again and choose 'Export all to CSV'

[senseman] 22/2/2024 10:47

Hi Laser
What does this mean?
Last offload was end Dec/completed 1st few days Jan.
Is not next offload not due until towards end March, on fair production?
Why Altera en route to Lancaster now?

Also - for anyone - any updates on P6 production figures from the website they have to publish them on?

[laserdisc] 21/2/2024 16:56

ALTERA THULE
Destination: LANCASTER OIL FIELD
ETA: 2024-02-26 18:00 GMT
Details here for ship watchers will not be able to update not around next week

[geordy2] 13/2/2024 18:30

simonunderthebus - filtered

[simonanthrobus] 30/1/2024 14:39

senseman is detested by many investors and who lies about possible Prax deals

[roks] 30/1/2024 14:28

My ii account now shows a value, where before it was showing value of zero, 100% loss, which.

Are we due a payment from Prax?

[senseman] 27/1/2024 10:11

Simon is detested zero credibility Kever on LSE forum and posts identical nonsense there

[simonanthrobus] 26/1/2024 11:30

"If one calls Prax and speaks with Vlad Langhamer MD Europe & Asia pretending to be an Energy Voice feature writer you will be told that Prax/HUR did due diligence on several UK production companies but found the asking price (ie. the industry reasonable going rate) too high.Because it has not been able to identify one it currently has zero interest in any UK company and that position is unlikely to change soon."


A complete and utter lie and this is not what Prax have told me.

[fat frank] 26/1/2024 10:40

"senseman 25 Jan '24 - 10:58 - 37894 of 37899

P8 is not being drilled"

Don't want P8 to be drilled now. There simply isn't enough time to obtain permissions, secure a rig, drill and complete the well, test and tie back to FPSO and then to produce enough oil to get back drilling costs before DCU's expire.

That ship has sailed

IMO

[ifaze] 25/1/2024 18:28

Nice one Senseman,

[simonanthrobus] 25/1/2024 12:36

"HUR are currently involved in NO negotiations to buy any oil or gas production assets which will increase the DCU payments. "



Simply a lie. If you ring Prax and speak to them they will tell you different

[bill hunt] 25/1/2024 11:27

Edit. thank you and CA not Va.

[bill hunt] 25/1/2024 11:26

Than you, Senseman for all of your efforts. The defeat of the attempt by bond holders was largely down to you and CA. However, it was a pity that VA were "forced" to accept the Prax offer. Again, thank you.

[senseman] 25/1/2024 10:58

From Senseman LSE:
RE: DCU/OFFLOAD INFO/HELP NEEDED URGENT Today 09:58
Have been told by reliable source that DCU 17% share of each offload @ at $78/80 oil = 7 million (I assume dollars).

Which divided by 2 billion shares = circa .3p per offload. Does this sound about right?

Also that by end 2026 we are likely to see under 10p total (ie nowhere near 12.5p).

Doing the sums - assuming production doesn't crash crash so offload each 3 months

2023(2) + 2024(4) + 2025(4) + 2026(4) = 14 offload total x .3p = 4.2p

6.02p initial payment + 4.2p = 10.42p

BUT, even if production doesn't crash crash but rather depletes more gradually as we hope, it must lessen to some degree - so knock 1p off (could be more). I expect P6 to be economic beyond 2026 but we will get none of that.

We would need $100 oil for long periods between now & end 2026 to get within striking distance of 12.5p.

There have been 2 good articles published past few days - one Bloomberg saying oil should have $12 supply disruption risk added to current price because of risk greater middle east conflict. Another saying signs of China finally waking up again following strong government measures. problem is - can't copy and paste openable links on here nowadays. I do not see oil staying at $80 - has been minor miracle stayed so low for so long.

HUR are currently involved in NO negotiations to buy any oil or gas production assets which will increase the DCU payments. Nor, if they do enter any, will they likely be completed before end 2026 and producing cashflow

P8 is not being drilled

Ergo, as things stand we are looking at circa 9.5p total. Which will only improve with significant higher oil price

[briggs1209] 24/1/2024 05:54

thank you senseman, your efforts are appreciated by the silent majority.

[senseman] 24/1/2024 01:02

Simon
Magic is referring to the 2021 95% dilution restructuring attempt which failed (I call it HUR 1). At the start of the 3 day High Court hearing the shares were 0.6p. Had the attempt succeeded, 95% dilution would have rendered the shares worthless, ie: toilet tissue, and bondholders would have owned the company. For 4 months I worked full time to, along with CA, stop the attempt, whilst knowing I was endangering myself financially as Covid had killed dead my self employed income stream as an athletics coach, and I knew I should have been developing a new income stream. I did what I did because the old adage 'If not me, then whom?' quickly became apparent. HUR 1 was THE crucial episode/timespan
You are referring to the successful sale of the company to Prax (I call it HUR 2). Most of us knew fighting it was, bar a miracle, likely to fail. But with so much at stake, and after so much effort in 2021, a small group of us could not sleep at night unless we at least tried. And I would make 2 points:-
1. The DCU payments represent 17% of HUR's Well P6's profits. Prax retain 83%. Given our initial 6.02p payment + 6.48p payments are capped at 12.5p max (which we will not achieve before the end 2026 cut-off end date because there is no sign of Prax/HUR acquiring other production assets to increase profits from which our 17% is derived, or of drilling well P8 to do similar), consider what the share price would now be if HUR 2 had failed and a still shareholder owned HUR was banking 100% of well P6's profits?. I repeat - just 17% of profits caps us at 12.5p. How far above a 12.5p share price would we be now be if a still shareholder owned HUR was banking 100% of P6 profits?
2. No one, bar the 3 of us who as shareholders attended the Sanctioning Hearing when the judge OK'd the sale, and stood and spoke in the 'barrister's section' against HUR's KC & Prax's QC, will ever understand how close we came to succeeding. The only thing which failed us was the lack of a shedload of expensive independent expert reports to back up our arguments, in the face of HUR & Prax's +£1 million quid's worth of legal preparation and 'expert opinion'. The judge (and all attending, including both KC & QC) knew it was a stitch up. But the judge effectively declared that despite misgivings, he had no option but to be guided by the +£1million quid's worth of 'expert opinion' He did have another option, but was not brave enough to exercise it in our favour.
I am fighting for financial survival on account of my HUR efforts - which is why until now has not allowed me the time to become au fait with the DCU minutia - but which now makes it imperative that I do. That is why I have reached for a quick handle re how much we can expect going forward, and when.
Magic - thanks for kind words