Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[hopeful holder] 04/5/2018 15:52

Appreciate your feedback and view Gary. Thank ypuy

[gary38] 04/5/2018 13:15

HHT/A daily Chart H&S pattern has a potential target of 69p possibility around june/ August and if all falls into place and we get to FOIL without any problems H1 2019 price could be £1/ £1.50 not taking into account moving to main market/ farmout or sellout so lots of positives surrounding Hurricane Energy.

[hopeful holder] 04/5/2018 12:49

Thank you all for your considered posts. It is always useful to have other opinions, thoughts and such like to ponder.Again, thank you.HH

[bloodhound] 04/5/2018 12:28

Still looks like we've got a background seller to me, overall looking strong though. If it's you RB, knock it on the head for a bit son.....

BH

[greyingsurfer] 04/5/2018 12:20

So I'm really struggling to work out what the real price should be today / next week / next month on valuation terms..

The valuation now is what people are prepared to pay. I'm not sure there's any other meaningful measure.

What the valuation could potentially be in a year's time, if FOIL goes well and they are started to prove up the commerciality of the wider resource is a very different issue - and while there will be lots of different views any valuation based on oil being produced as expected will be way above where we are now.

So what you are prepared to pay now must depend on your own estimate of two things - the probability of the EPS producing as HUR expect (and I'd rate that as high) and what do you expect others to do over the next 12 months. If you think buyers will sit on their hands you could invest your cash elsewhere and come back and buy at 40p in 12 months time. Somehow that doesn't seem plausible to me! There will be a run up to FOIL. It may be limited to PIs and a few small institutions (big oil staying out) in which case the rise may be modest, or HUR could be on a main listing by then - so more II interest, or big oil may start deciding they want to get in before the others all do. Any of those could happen. My view is that I'm more than happy to be invested here now as my crystal ball is not good enough to try and outguess what is going to happen.

I see a high probability of the share price being above current values, quite likely well above, in 12 months. That's good enough for me.

Peter

[bloodhound] 04/5/2018 11:48

HD - 100%, If as Dr T says the Lancaster wells should be 'fantastic producers' and they are and over time, HUR will be toast.

If you want to realise the whole value of HUR's assetts then buy BP or Shell.

BH

[hiddendepths] 04/5/2018 11:25

HH - How long is a piece of string? Production may help a bit with valuation but, as long as that works at least reasonably well, the real value is the gigantic and still largely unknown reserve base.

Nobody but rampers generally come up with silly reserve numbers. I am far from being a ramper but the numbers on my spreadsheet would make many sensible posters on here throw up their hands in horror. I don't think it matters though because the company will certainly be taken out long before the truth or otherwise of my estimates is known. There will certainly be significant dilution if the company funds any part of full field development. It might take 10-20 years for the full scale of these deposits to be accurately assessed.

FWIW I assign a 20% chance of HUR's current acreage containing 12 billion barrels recoverable or more. Of course it could still be less than 1 billion as well but my median ballpark figure is 6-8 billion. These figures have not been plucked from the air!

With numbers like these, I do not find it hard to regard Hurricane as a long term buy and hold and to keep it as my major holding by a country mile. I doubt I'll sell any (apart from around 5% of my holding which I trade occasionally) until the fat lady is in full voice.

As ever DYOR and cast plenty of doubt on to others' figures, even if they come from a former oil analyst. I make plenty of mistakes, like everyone else!

[nickb] 04/5/2018 11:17

44p is not an attractive buy if you believe you can buy them in the 30p’s

That looks unlikely so 44p must be attractive if you believe in the longer term valuation which should be multiples higher?

[hopeful holder] 04/5/2018 11:13

Morning all. Gary, a while ago you used to post up some great info on this board for debate / facts/ articles.It would be great if you had any further info for debate.Whatever your opinion of CA, they have a living to make and shareholders to report to whereas us pi's can do as we please.Your opinion of CA is well voiced. ? I would welcome your views / opinions on something different such as your current valuation of HUR, where you get it from.?Any chart views (I know they are controversial. It is good if Kirton passes comment which I feel is really useful)Cheers Gary and let's keep your Board informative again, please.

[hopeful holder] 04/5/2018 11:06

I was talking to a friend this am aboutHUR, and current valuation.We both found it really hard to actually place a CURRENT price on HUR (as with all e&p companies) as weare buying into potential. So I'm really struggling to work out what the real price should be today / next week / next month on valuation terms..Whereas next year when producing has some figures produced on another board which is really useful.So how are people here deciding if the buy price is attractive to them or not?

[bloodhound] 04/5/2018 11:04

"Something calamitous happened last May/June"

It certainly did jacks, here's an anagram of something somebody on the HUR Board said for you to muse over;-)

Bowl - Cap - AS - In - Begging - Hand - Comments

Have a good day.

BH

[mirabeau] 04/5/2018 10:55

This really is on the verge

[tom111] 04/5/2018 10:04

Looks like 44p is the next target to breach,hard work all this.At least we are heading in the right direction after such a long time

[gary38] 04/5/2018 09:39

RB at the time of fund raising was selling into the rise and at the AGM offered £500m to buy Lancaster but never offered £ 500m for funding Hurricane Energy for development.The 19.5 m at 53p that RB got was only because he could sell to his company that he had to buy to save the companies investment as he knew he could not buy those shares otherwise at that time.

[jacks13] 04/5/2018 09:14

Bloodhound, I'm reluctant to speculate in public, but a clue to my thinking might be that RB found perhaps that he wasn't being given as much of an opportunity to drive the trainset as he had hoped. CA are not a charity and I don't regard their gesture as other than their acting to protect their own interests, as welcome as it might have been.
Something calamitous happened last May/June I believe which led them to go for the warrants issue and that also coincided with the market coming to the realisation that this little minnow was actually trying to develop the field single handed. That both spooked the market and created the opportunity for a short-traded sell off.
We have been told that the warrants were required to fund the sub-sea long-lead items, which I'm happy to accept. But it's the questions this might then have raised around corporate governance and maybe other issues that led to the then chairman resigning that has fundamentally I feel undermined CA's relationship with the company. On the other hand the rift created might by now have healed and there has not to my knowledge been any adverse comments from CA around the choice of the new independent chairman.
But from all of this I can conclude that CA has not been able to do a 'Thorntons' on the situation and do not have the place at the table they might have enjoyed in the early days of their investment.
None of this is to disparage CA. I'm as grateful as the next for its part in getting Hurricane onto its feet but here I will speculate and say that they did not embark on this expecting to be part of the creation of a Blue Chip, they were looking to some sort of early monetisation at the discoveries stage. All my opinion of course.

[buzzzzzzzz] 04/5/2018 08:41

Bloodhound me too GRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!

[gary38] 04/5/2018 08:14

This going to be another week for Trader RB of CA selling campaign where he has been making a killing here as he did last year .If he turns up at the AGM lets hope he does not make another embarrassing offer as l dont think there will be any one there who will not be thinking he has again held back the share price from getting to its true value , well thats what that trader does as a board member said at the last AGM.

[bloodhound] 03/5/2018 23:00

"But you might recall it was dummy spitting time last Summer."

Jacks - It was more teeth spitting time, everyone was fuming! I think you need to get your thinking a little more aligned with what actually happened last year to fully appreciate why CA acted the way they did.

For example: CA underwrote 19.5M shares at 53p for zero underwriting fee (that shows added commitment to me). At the same time the market cap of HUR had fallen 300M for a 12M equity raise! I think CA had every right to be angry and act the way they did, I was angry too, come to think of it I still am, grrr.

BH

[jacks13] 03/5/2018 20:59

It is his job to sell into strength, I get that, but CA embarked on their investment in Hur to take a controlling interest, not in the percentage of shares sense but in the calling the shots sense. That's what Crystal Amber does. But you might recall it was dummy spitting time last Summer. That's my take on it, for what its worth.

The point I'm trying to make, having given it a little more thought, is that Kerogen's motives for investing and their investment style is more aligned to Hurricane's requirements than is Crystal Amber's. They after all are activist fund managers with different time horizons and motivations. They are not patient investors in other words.

[bloodhound] 03/5/2018 19:01

Bit harsh that on CA & RB, without their support who knows where HUR would be right now as a company. Yes none of us like the CA fund selling into strength but that's RB's job or part of it.

BH

[gary38] 03/5/2018 16:03

You better put your teeth back in as you are making Les Dawson look handsome.

[rackers1] 03/5/2018 15:56

i guess you didnt brush your teeth then this morning eh smelly

[gary38] 03/5/2018 15:55

That deal witjh that smell .