Horizonte Minerals Share Discussion Threads

[jailbird] 03/2/2019 15:15

If this materialises, early retirementfor meI keep dreaming :-)

[maverick247] 03/2/2019 09:34

Commodities bull run coming https://commonstockwarrants.com/why-commodities-are-poised-for-their-biggest-rally-in-50-years/

[craigieboy1] 01/2/2019 22:57

Nickel flying upwards in price and HZM coming off on share price. As baffling as ever!

[jailbird] 01/2/2019 19:53

"The International Energy Agency doubled its 2030 forecast from 23 million to 58 million"Subscription based https://www.ft.com/content/75c258ec-1087-11e9-a3aa-118c761d2745

[craigieboy1] 01/2/2019 14:11

$6.00/Lb here we come.

[jailbird] 01/2/2019 13:51

Real time prices uk.investing.com/commodities/real-time-futures$12567kJust hope we can stabilise around these levels or higher of course

[uapatel] 01/2/2019 09:59

...China’s industry ministry expects new energy vehicle output to hit 2 million in 2020, with sales of 7 million such vehicles there by 2025, some 20 percent of the overall autos market...

[twigs3] 01/2/2019 09:09

JB an example of that is vale had committed £500m investment in new Caledonia nickel mine, I doubt that will go ahead now.

[salmonn1] 31/1/2019 20:36

Absolutely JB, things like this don't usually just happen for no reason. Maybe it's cutbacks in maintenance, lower specs for construction or a number of different causes none of which on their own were a problem but together caused the failure. If a third tragedy were to occur it would not only be Vale in the dock but Bolsonaro as well if something isn't done.

[jailbird] 31/1/2019 19:58

It is the financial implications to Vale that will hit them hard.
It will affect their future investment plans and current assets

[salmonn1] 31/1/2019 15:16

If anyone thinks the regulations concerning mining are too onerous then what's happened in Brazil should be a timely reminder of why regulation is necessary. From what I can see HZM is doing things properly which is part of the de-risking process and the right thing to do. Incidentally it's reported there are 17,000 of these dams in Brazil alone. Vale doesn't just face reputational damage and financial penalties for this latest incident but an uncontrolled budget commitment to take care of their legacy assets due in part to either low standards of regulation and or compliance. None of the above applies to HZM if it meets the permit requirements etc.

[twigs3] 31/1/2019 13:09

Three month nickel closed Wednesday's trading session at $5.60/lb . Indicators at 6:25 am CST today show 3 month nickel trading around $.04/lb higher. Stockpiles of nickel stored in LME licensed warehouses went unchanged yesterday and started today's session just over the 202,000 tonne level. As you follow nickel prices, it is wise to remember that only trained rodeo clowns get paid to jump in front of a bull on the loose. Most bull runs make little sense, and as the business media scrambles for explanations, they will grab onto any bit of rumor they hear to explain to their readers why they are on top of the market. Today's explanation for a bull that has been on the run since the first of the year .... last weekend's iron ore tailings dam collapse that killed numerous people in Brazil. Maybe this will affect production at Vale's nickel mine in Brazil? And maybe not. But the business media this potential disruption in supply is the reason behind the price spikes. The fact Norilsk Nickel announced yesterday that it would increase production of nickel this year apparently fell on deaf ears. At this point, we feel the market is being manipulated by computers, that calculate faster in a micro second than a human can in a day. Thus, we will not try to explain 'why' the market is doing what its doing today, but pass on 'what' it is doing. For the month, nickel momentarily fell out of, but is firmly back in, a clearly defined upward channel. Cancelled warrants have moved from the 26% range at the beginning of the month, into the 29% range the last three trading sessions. The China steel price futures chart bears a remarkably similar appearance to the nickel price chart for January, meaning it had a good month. The Euro offered base metals no assistance in January. And the Achilles Heel to not only the metals markets, but markets in general, the trade talks between China and the U.S. are ongoing with one month left to come to an agreement. President Trump has scheduled a trip to visit with the North Korean leader later in February and there are hopes the President will kill two birds with one stone and sign an agreement with China while he is in the neighborhood. If the two don't come to an agreement and more sanctions are put into place, you might want to fire up the barbecue grill because the bull could be in trouble. This is our last update for the week, so have a restful and safe weekend. With China closed for business next week, it could be a quiet week. Then again, we won't know that until next week. See you then.
Average price of cash nickel so far this month - $5.18/lb
Average price of LME traded nickel in in 2018 - $5.95/lb / 2017 - $4.73/lb / 2016 - $4.36/lb / 2015 - $5.37/lb /

[mr. t] 31/1/2019 13:06

Fair points salmonn1.

[salmonn1] 31/1/2019 12:35

JM has been the CEO of HZM which among other things has increased by 4x its assets, successfully completed the FS and has construction permit status etc, in an historically low Ni price environment and all during a generally challenging period for junior miners. The share price is more of a reflection of the general market in my view and JM deserves credit for keeping the development of HZM moving forward.

[mr. t] 31/1/2019 11:30

WOOSTER4, thanks for your comment and I agree JM is heavily incentivized to get a high share price (few CEOs aren't). JM has had variable performance bonuses - e.g. £65k in 2014. He's also had a rapidly rising salary. His total compensation for the last 3 years has been:

2015 - £201k
2016 - £314k
2017 - £398k

A double in 2 years is not bad. If he'd doubled the share price then understandable, but from what I can see HZM has been an underwhelming long term investment. Nice work for a CEO to get a double in compensation when your investors lose money.

Anyway, that's all in the past. My point is that I see the long term CEO's lack of personal investment and willingness to generously reward himself as a negative to HZM. I'll probably sit on my initial stake as there are the positives that have been well discussed here.

[wooster4] 31/1/2019 08:12

Mr T - For any CEO, the majority of expected value of their remuneration package is delivered through variable remuneration. To date, JM has received nothing. All his options are underwater so i would argue that his interests are very much aligned. Earning £260 a year is nice but after tax etc, is not going to make you wealthy. Getting the share price to 25 pence though would.

[craigieboy1] 30/1/2019 23:44

I think independently of how it's shaped JM has a substantial interest in delivering share price growth or his options will be worth nothing.
I think you are right though it's quite a low personal investment in terms of his cash but not of his time if you think of it that way, with 28m options he perhaps thinks that's enough when/if full value is realised.
It's probably a question that should be put to him personally.

[mr. t] 30/1/2019 22:49

steeplejack, Twigs3 - thank you for your comments. I've been watching the latest videos on Horizonte's website, and Jeremy Martin comes across well. You'd think Glecore and Teck Resources would give routes to funding given their interest as major shareholders - especially Glencore with their bullishness on Nickel.

However, getting $443m funding for a new Nickel mine in Brazil is a hell'uva lot for a £30m company.

[twigs3] 30/1/2019 16:44

Steeplejack looks like your right,there is plenty of money and interest for private equity getting into mining,

[steeplejack] 30/1/2019 16:06

That’s the question,funding.It’s considerations about funding that’s keeping the price down,which in turn means a share issue would be highly dilutive.Its a catch 22.


I spoke to an analyst in person recently who covers HZM who suggested that company’s preferred route appeared to be atttracting private capital.Easier said than done perhaps.Clearly,offtake agreements are also a sound possibility.The economics of Araguaia project have always been relatively attractive as JM is always keen to point out.Brazil,despite the Vale disaster,is likely to remain relatively miner friendly,so if you’re looking to get into nickel production,one can only presume that funding Araguaia would be near the top of the list.

Thing is,with HZM on such a low rating,I wonder if private capital might not wish to takeover Horizonte lock,stock and barrel and take it from there.Of course,the management would have to be willing and the major shareholders,so perhaps not.It could happen though.

[mr. t] 30/1/2019 15:46

I've a small investment and considering buying more due to the good economics of Araguaia, strategic rationale of nickel, and attractive HZM share price.

However...one thing on my mind is the difficulty HZM may have obtaining funding. Has anyone examples of other nickel miners obtaining funding for new projects in recent years?

Sorry if this has been discussed and I missed it.

[maverick247] 30/1/2019 15:08

A good video showing hzm economics and leverage to Ni priceHTTPS://youtu.be/MG4zKwwnjn4

[maverick247] 30/1/2019 15:07

Nickel flying again

[twigs3] 30/1/2019 14:45

Nickel market is starting to look a lot more promising now JB, let hope China and the US do some sort of deal, nickel would surly push past 14k if that was the case and that’s where we need to be, nickel now pushing another 2% today :-)