Hellenic Dynamics Share Discussion Threads

[garth] 29/6/2023 16:43

Well, I took 2/3 of my holding off the table between 0.16 and 0.18 But I never really anticipated we'd be back here. Its a bit grim. Management have some evidencing to do.

G.

[jasko] 29/6/2023 14:22

Looks like some PI's have had enough and thrown the towel in. Patience required here coupled with some meaningful answers from the company which might hopefully be coming soon fingers crossed. I have taken my position here and will give it 6-12 months to see how the plan is executed by the management.

[triskelion] 28/6/2023 14:10

Yeah I had to work hard to resist copy/pasting those early this AM; though I would say I'd have preferred to see "harvested" rather than "cultivated", no?

[extrader] 28/6/2023 06:54

Good first Q’s

1. Do you envisage doing a fund raise in the next 12 months

2. Do you have an operational license from the Greek Government for cultivation as described in your prospectus i.e a 2 stage process with stage 1 being an installation license.

3. When will the 1st crop be cultivated.

[oakridge] 27/6/2023 23:47

This could be quite an important interview, IF it's properly conducted.

There are a number of grey areas for shareholders at present and the share price suggests an element of uncertainty.

If these questions are addressed, and to the market's satisfaction, it could result in the kind of uplift we had started to experience prior to the news regarding the extension / pivot in the business model, which was something of a curveball (but not necessarily a bad one - we'll have to see).

Clarity and the reduction of uncertainty on licenses and the timing of the first harvest (and so cash generation) could lift sentiment considerably, if favourable.

Also the apparent confusion over the intended dates for this year: it would be interesting to know if (or to what extent) the company is on course or away from its original timescale. We may learn that it is in fact a lot closer to those original targets than some on here are suggesting.... or not. Either way, clarity is key and the mkt should respond favourably to clarity.

I may or may not submit questions. I'm more relaxed and less twitchy than others (indeed I have actually been buying the stock since the retrace in the SP).

NAI and ADYOR etc etc.

[oakridge] 27/6/2023 23:32

Interview with the CEO coming right up.

Looks like they are welcoming a question and answer session......

[extrader] 25/6/2023 09:59

How does that third party info compare with the third party info that a search of HELD would reveal? How detailed is your info on HELD?

Here in Spain, for instance, I can access (for a small fee or via an estate agent friend) an extract from the catastral register and Government-produced satellite imagery showing property boundaries etc. Area, terrain (irrigated or otherwise), vegetation type, built-up area(s) in m2/how many storeys, etc.....

Perhaps when the facilities came on the market (ex NATO?), the description was detailed in this way?

[serratia] 25/6/2023 00:18

I think they're a bit behind the curve in N.Macedonia. I did a search on the company and the guy running it said he asked the local regulators what they needed to do at the potential facilities and all they could tell me was the height of the fence! It looks like they're way behind but HW paid EUR 9.5m for 95%. Valued at £8.5m for something way behind. HELD at £11m M.Cap looks undervalued by comparison.

[serratia] 24/6/2023 11:05

A comment / valuation on another european producer -

The proposed deal. Howard White has agreed to grant HUI the option to buy a 49% stake in CCS. The consideration for this potential purchase would be 49 million HUI shares,which at the current share price represents a potential price of £2.8 million. On top of this,HUI will provide a £0.5 million loan to CCS. Should this option not be granted,or is terminated or lapses then this loan would be repaid. This option is conditional upon the results of legal,financial, tax, regulatory and commercial due diligence on the cannabis cultivator and CCS.▪CCS. CCS is wholly owned by Howard White who is an executive director of HUI and has a 3.97% shareholding in HUI. In May 2023, CCS agreed to buy a 95% stake in a medical cannabis cultivator in North Macedonia for EUR 9.5 million which is payable in instalments of EUR 1 -2 million between June 2023 and December 2029.Given the relationship of Howard White and HUI,investors should be aware that this deal is a material related party transaction.▪Medical Cannabis Cultivator. CCS is acquiring a 95% stake in a company that is a licenced medical cannabis cultivator based in North Macedonia. In 2016, North Macedonia’s Ministry of Health legalised the production of medical cannabis –making it one of the first countries in Europe to do this.This,coupled with low labour costs,has led to a surge in companies looking to participate in this space. Given that the company would appear to be close to making profits, this would imply that the company is an early entrant and hence may have an advantage over other participants. HUI would look to exercise its option once the cultivator starts making profits and paying dividends to CCS. ▪Potential co-operation between HUI and cultivator.The cultivator has the opportunity to acquire adjacent land to its operations. This provides HUI with the ability to build one of its waste plastic to hydrogen plants. This would have some symbiosis for the companies in that the cultivator could be a buyer of electricity, produced while HUI could use cannabis residue biomass as a feedstock.

[oakridge] 22/6/2023 21:35

Hellenic Dynamics signs first deal after strategy tweak to adapt to 'Cannabis 2.0' market shift

Hellenic Dynamics Plc -
Medical cannabis producer Hellenic Dynamics Plc (LSE:HELD) shares bounced back slightly on the announcement of the first deal since flagging its "adapted" business strategy a week earlier.

The specialist cultivator of medical cannabis flowers, which owns a near-200,000 sq m facility in Greece, has signed an agreement to cultivate and supply to Demecan Holding, a German medical cannabis producer and distributor.

Demecan, like many producers, has moved from cultivation into distribution and works to secure product from other medical cannabis cultivators to ensure reliable and continuous supplies for patients in its home country.

Part of Hellenic's strategic tweak last week was to expand its contract cultivation strategy so medical cannabis distributors, such as Demecan, will be able to reserve a dedicated area of the Hellenic facility for a 'white label' cultivation facility, under what it is calling a product outsourcing development or 'POD' agreement.

The London-listed company plans to add more such contracts while continuing to also focus on cultivating its own crop of medical cannabis plants.

Instead of investing more funds and time into the construction and certification of its facility under the EU-GMP (good manufacturing practice) rules, Hellenic said it will instead focus its cultivation and supply of GACP (good agricultural and collecting practices) flowers to distributors that have the EU-GMP certification themselves.

As such, last week's announcement, said chief executive Davinder Rai, was less a change of strategy that an adaptation to the evolution of the medical cannabis industry over the past year and a half into what he calls Cannabis 2.0.

"The industry has moved from a cultivators market to very much a distributors market. And distributors are far closer to the end patient and know what the patients want, having built up over the past five years a great understanding of patient demand.

"We've reacted to that market. I've spoken to 30 distributors last six months, not one single one of those wants to buy EU GMP flowers, where the wholesale price is marginally higher than the GACP price. So building a GMP facility didn't really make sense for us."

Instead, he said Hellenic's focus "will simplify our lives so much - we can control that vertical by saying we are a cannabis cultivator that cultivates cannabis, we sell cannabis and we don't need to get involved with the other parts of the business because our customers already doing that."

Such contracts also have no cost of sales, he points out.

By allowing distributors Demecan and others to "move one step up the vertical" by allocating them some cultivation space with the aim of allowing Hellenic to pre-sell its products two years in advance, the board thinks this will create more value for our shareholders.

"D distributor in a specific region, growing a specific product that they know sells well, which we're growing from them on a white label cultivation branded process, dare I say I think it might be the future of cannabis."

[ashleyjv] 22/6/2023 17:21

They are not financial / tax quarters though

[judijudi] 22/6/2023 07:16

I think most people are aware of that

[pirates4] 20/6/2023 12:33

The standard calendar quarters that make up the year are as follows: January, February, and March (Q1) April, May, and June (Q2) July, August, and September (Q3)

[pirates4] 20/6/2023 12:13

Into the endcof Q2 financial year now.A fiscal quarter is a three-month period used by companies and investors for financial reporting purposes. Fiscal quarters are denoted by the months they fall in, such as "Q1" for January through March or "Q2" for April through June.27 Feb 2023

[realcooltrader] 20/6/2023 11:47

Topped up a couple of times. Happy to be patient.

[pirates4] 20/6/2023 08:47

Surely demecan would not like to see delays in harvesting, which could have an impact on their sales to businesses.

[jasko] 20/6/2023 08:45

I know that it's already been said a number of times, but what will turn the sentiment is news showing/demonstrating how the plan (new revised) is being executed. That's what is currently lacking when that starts to happen the investment case would be a no Brainer. IMHO

[judijudi] 20/6/2023 08:10

There is no question mark about the delay
As announced by the company mid summer first harvest moved to late summer first harvest is not ambiguous in any way
imho
Hence one of the main reasons for the share price collapse

[oakridge] 19/6/2023 09:43

Hi jasko....agreed.

Looking for increased news flow and, crucially, detail over the coming weeks.

As stated there are a number of points about which the market is 'uncertain', if they can RNS their way through these, bring clarity to any grey areas, and prove good progress to the point of first cultivation and harvest, the shares should do very well from these levels (imo).

There is also a question mark over whether there has actually been a delay or not.

Some consider so, others not.

If the company is actually on track with its intended, original timeframe, they should make reference to that in a future RNS.

Market perception should change when they are actually growing, with detail around the fit out of the bunkers and expansion for the existing (and future) POD customers we should be good and away.

At the moment there is an element of uncertainty over timeframes and licenses etc hence the share price Without these, we should see a marked rebound imo.

AIMO, NAI and ADYOR.

[jasko] 19/6/2023 09:13

Thank you Oakridge for the piece. I do sincerely hope that it plays out as suggested. It is as you say by no means certain but I too are optimistic that the pivot will pay off and the delay to harvest was worth it. The need is now to demonstrate that they are or will get the results so as to reassure the market that they are not floundering but are an agile company that responded to the situation. Good luck to all

[oakridge] 18/6/2023 16:28

The prospectus, past RNS' and the broad schedule of events proposed at HELD would suggest there is a lot of news to come here.......and possibly quite a bit compressed into a relatively short space of time (?)

Time will tell if that news contains the vital detail which pleases and reassures the market.

I'm confident the company will be aware of what the market needs and what it will respond well to. So it's down to them to implement the new strategy or expansion and, crucially, to keep the market well-informed as to where they are in the journey towards first harvest and sales.

It would be interesting to know if the original off takes are still good and whether the new POD arrangement is in addition to those. The company added detail in the last RNS stating that they would still be growing their own GACP flowers....so there appears to be legs appearing on the table, not the opposite.

IF the company is to become cash generative next quarter, as intended, a whole lot of 'good stuff' needs to be announced: clarity on the issue of licenses, fit out, expansion, customers, talks with further distributors, scale at the facility and so on. They should now realise there are a few blind spots in the market and so choose to bring clarity on these as soon as they are able.

If all of these were answered to the market's satisfaction, we would likely be trading well north of 0.5p.....some 400 - 500% up from the current 'sale' levels, and even then not a heady valuation if they can show further distributors are taking POD agreements and the site can be scaled up. That would be the ideal: to get the first crop cultivated and then have a string of further agreements with news of the company successfully scaling to fit demand). Always the plan of course, but now doing so direct, outsourced AT THE REQUEST of distributors....with no ongoing EU-GMP or cost of sales. It could work well, but it is not a certainty.

Hearts were on the floor the other week as the shares fell and a sense of disappointment emerged that peeps didn't get the RNS they had been anticipating. I decided to take more shares and effectively purchase other people's disappointment. I would rather do this than buy their exuberance at say 0.8p on the back of a first harvest RNS. The question of course, is whether those positive updates arrive and uncertainty over the business 'expansion' clears. Very cheap shares with uncertainty and risk, or much pricier shares with added certainty and reduced risk.

Cultivating and harvesting in Q2 financial year (July - September) or Q2 calendar year (April - June)??

My thought was always the former, but I accept it hasn't always been clear....and who knows they may have always meant July - September. Clarity on intended time frames would be a good move. The market can handle a two month delay, better than not knowing if there is a delay or not. And as I said, there might not even be a delay, just a lack of clarity of what was intended.

Either way, there is just three months in it and if we believe what is written about savings in time and money, a three month add on should hopefully pay for itself.

If they are going to nail it in July - September (a quarter we are about to enter) some good news should precede it.

Having looked more closely at the rationale for the POD approach and the efficiencies, streamlining and savings that could arise from taking this route, the argument for the potential of larger revenues, sooner, and at lower cost seems to add up.

I am not certain and nor is the market.....and the recent price action reflects that uncertainty.........but I am willing to hold and remain patient.

Time will tell if that uncertainty alleviates on the back of further news.

I think there is at least a good chance of that happening.

Good luck over the coming weeks and ADYOR, NAI and AIMO.

[pirates4] 18/6/2023 00:47

https://www.norfolkfarmsnews.ca/post/langton-area-maricann-resumes-expansion-following-acquisition-by-austrian-based-canadelaardominated the bal- ance of 2020 since acquisition, but strong performance by a highly-trained 36-member team whose ability to pivot seamlessly between cultivation and production has provided an advanced base for Maricann to embrace 2021 goals. They include, says Ould-Slimane, a multi-million-dollar in- vestment toward incrementally bringing the expansion's additional grow capacity online in a measured approach."Not in one go," he clarified. "But in smaller phases."Completion of Maricann's visionary purpose-built cannabis production facility expansion will triple current capacity and provide unique climate control, fertigation and data compilation within an environmentally-sustainable framework.It was a 'dark day' when contractors left the site, says Jeff Ayotte, welcoming a graduated return within a precisely-budgeted approach. "The whole team from contractors through maintenance are happy with the direction," he added, excited about the prospect of being in the new building."It's pretty easy, all I've got to do is construction stuff - with a great team. We look forward to finishing the goal of increasing Langton's footprint on the map of world-class suppliers of medical and recreational cannabis." It's all confusing to me also. I have gathered all I can on demecan, which Wayland which is also called Maricann hold 50 percent of demecan . Now in the hands of Austrian-based CanAdelaar

[pirates4] 18/6/2023 00:19

https://canadelaar.com/production/

[pirates4] 18/6/2023 00:16

So CanAdelaar holds 50 percent of demecan now from Wayland .

[pirates4] 18/6/2023 00:14

Actually..https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/stock/WAYLAND-GROUP-CORP-119074441/news/CanAdelaar-B-V-agreed-to-acquire-Maricann-Inc-and-certain-certain-other-property-from-Wayland-Grou-33918051/And CanAdelaar BV...2,000,000 sq ft.CanAdelaar is a leading European producer of cannabis, with state-of-the-art production facilities.CanAdelaar goes beyond industry standards, in order to ensure best quality products. Cultivating high-grade cannabis requires a precise approach. Everything from the quality of the soil to the level of humidity is fine-tuned, in order to meet the facilities' strict requirements. Industrial cultivation means applying this precise approach on a grand scale.Total Cultivation Area: c. 2,200,000 sq. ft.