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Hellenic Dynamics Plc (HELD)
Hellenic Dynamics Plc (HELD) Dividends

Share Name	Share Symbol	Market	Stock Type
Hellenic Dynamics Plc	HELD	London	Ordinary Share

	Price Change	Price Change %	Share Price	Last Trade
	0.00	0.0%	0.1075	08:45:24

Open Price	Low Price	High Price	Close Price	Previous Close
0.1075	0.1075	0.11375	0.1075	0.1075

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Hellenic Dynamics HELD Dividends History

No dividends issued between 07 Jun 2013 and 07 Jun 2023

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Posted at 07/6/2023 15:36 by extrader Hi all I'd be OK with the pardonable confusion over dates, if they worked to PI advantage...but they don't : (1).."currently on track to have its first cultivation underway in late summer 2023" - that suggests no real revenue until Q4 calendar year. What will this mean for HELD's cash position? (2) I have a question about the status of HELD's operational licence, 1 of the 2 it needs : From RNS dated 2nd August 2021: "Greek legislation describes a two-stage licensing process; the first being an installation licence and the second an operational licence.... Hellenic holds a facility installation licence (the "Licence"), granted on 24 October 2019, which permits it to construct and establish a cannabis processing and production facility. Hellenic is in the final stages of completing the necessary works to apply for an operational licence." So they had the installation licence but not the operational licence (surely getting it would be newsworthy and RNSable?). The last mention appears to be here hxxps://ukinvestormagazine.co.uk/standard-reversal-hellenic-dynamics-cultivates-licence which said (as at 7/12/2022) ..."The company still has to obtain an operations licence in Greece so that it can sell the cannabis flowers and extract that it will produce..." (3) Whilst trawling HELD's website [a fairly poor 'work in progress', btw] and re-visiting RNS's, I looked again at the 26 Jan RNS appointing Carl Haffner as a consultant on the Development Team. Firstly, Davinder specifically highlights .."Having previously successfully established an EU-GMP cultivation facility, his appointment will provide additional support to ensure our targets are met." That hasn't aged well. When exactly did the strategy change? Secondly, I didn't do my usual Companies House search back in Jan, because Haffner wasn't a Board appointment. My bad : the histories of QE Global Limited (06232015), 2C Install Limited/prev. QEG Install (09391357), Power by Light Limited (11129598), Avida Global (11540240), Avida Global Systems (11547291) and maybe others don't inspire confidence. Thirdly : on revisiting Haffner's linked in hxxps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7069600923433476096/, I was puzzled to see this message, from a week ago : .."I'm collaborating with a client who is based in Europe and is currently seeking a comprehensive list of Medical Cannabis Cultivation items. These essentials include, but are not limited to: Indoor Cultivation equipment Propagation supplies Fertilisers and nutrients Pest management solutions Harvesting and processing equipment Trimming (Ideally Mobius) equipment Regardless of whether these items are new or used, our aim is to source these critical tools to streamline and bolster their cultivation operations..." If this is for HELD going forward, how to square with yesterday's update, which suggests that this has already been done ? ..", since the Company's last business update [Jan 2023}, Hellenic Dynamics has managed to secure significant discounts from its equipment suppliers and has also managed to secure unused second hand equipment, where possible, to keep costs as low as possible while ensuring all equipment is of the highest and modern standards throughout the facility..." The Jan 2023 update [3 days before Haffner's appointment] appeared to suggest that all was on track back then, including for the GMP work that HELD has now decided not to pursue : .." Phase one of the fit-out and process implementation strategy for the facility is well underway . All cultivation and propagation activities will be in line with Good Agricultural and Collection Practices for Medicinal Plants ("GACP") requirements and the post-harvest completion area will be in line with EU-Good Manufacturing Practice ("EU-GMP") requirements..." In any event, if they're only looking to source equipment NOW, this adds weight to the argument that HELD is significantly behind its growing/harvesting schedule. [Aside : Haffner's obv an entrepreneurial type : his more recent outreach is for "an intriguing opportunity in a burgeoning market that intersects both the coffee and cannabis sectors"....."a venture that combines the beloved ritual of sipping coffee with the therapeutic properties of cannabis.." Is this also HELD ? If so, you read it here first!] ;-> ;-> ;-> Finally, two curiosities / loose ends: (1) Despite joining the Advisory Board nearly 3 months ago, Katherine Fleming doesn't feature on the website...and she's a remarkably Establishment figure ..President and CEO of the J. Paul Getty Trust, the international cultural and philanthropic institution, overseeing its 1,500 employees and US$8.5 billion endowment fund. (2) Shareprophets hasn't written anything about HELD, AFAICS : Winnifroth normally has a go at start-ups, whether justified or not. I wonder whether her appointment and his silence are because they're both Hellenophiles ? If you've got this far, you won't be surprised to learn that I've sold out today. This is all a cathartic 'note to self' , since I've decided that there are too many 'known unknowns' and 'unknown unknowns' for me at this time. GLA and ATB Read Full Thread Follow Reply
Posted at 06/6/2023 23:17 by oakridge I think over previous weeks, many retail investors had strongly anticipated 'the next big RNS' to be the one that might offer the opportunity to bank some profits. This is perhaps not unreasonable given the strides of progress that were reported back in January. Instead, today's RNS brought an update different to the one many had expected and so it effectively threw the market a curve ball. I think we would have seen strong sell today, even if we had been served up the news that the site in Greece was now more or less fully commissioned and the first clones were growing (complete with twitter photos of green shoots etc). So we saw weakness both on the back of the lack such confirmation, but also from those who got spooked at the change in strategy - which in itself wasn't sufficiently explained or properly communicated. What is perhaps more surprising is just how much buy activity there was. This suggests that a lot of people have been watching the company with a view to taking up stock on any weakness. The advfn columns seem accurate enough, with 142.8M buys vs 123.3M sells vs 67.6M question marked. IMO the news itself isn't 'bad', but the drafting of the RNS, the delivery and the detail around the 'story' could do with serious improvement. On one hand it is a good thing that the company can be so agile and nimble as the market evolves......however, on the other hand, senior management should realise that any change in strategy - particularly for a company so early in its business cycle - needs to be fully and properly explained, with a substantial level of detail together with reassurances over other aspects of the business. This was lacking. If we take the RNS at face value, which I guess we have to, the decision to shelve the apparently expensive and time consuming process of EU-GMP, in favour of selling GACP certified flowers to those distributors who have already invested in EU-GMP, seems to make sense.....particularly if they can do so profitably and retain good margins. I would imagine management have watched other companies trying to attain EU-GMP, assessed the costs and time, and have decided that the rationale for following suit is not strong enough and have favoured allocating funds to getting to first sales and perhaps leveraging on the core assets of the company, namely a vastly scalable facility and a very large license. In other words to compete, as soon as possible, on scale and volume. Ultimately this is what the European cannabis market will come down to: volume production, scalability and costs. If they can grow a lot of product and sell it without EU-GMP to those who have it (a route which, in itself, might be an entirely new development for the space - I'm unsure) then perhaps it is prudent to go that way. The company has, after all, been tied up in enough protracted regulation and box-ticking already, what with the listing process, which took almost a year longer than anticipated. Is the move as disruptive and is it such a big shake up as Rai insists? I'm unsure. Looking beyond the surface of this RNS, could it be that the potential easing of regulation in certain countries in Europe mean that soon there could be a fierce demand, not just for medicinal cannabis but also for recreational and/or 'self-medicated' cannabis (?). If so, it might mean that EU-GMP is not needed for cultivators who sell to distributors who do have it....in which case it might be a poor strategy to tie themselves to a regulatory process which in itself could, in time, effectively become obsolete. This is speculation and hypothesising on my part. Whatever, they key to HELD's success is almost certainly going to be about scale and volume production. As far as I can determine, today's RNS does not impede on that potential but instead may actually free the company to go large sooner than they might have done, had they become embroiled in EU-GMP, or at least at THIS stage, when they don't actually HAVE to in order to achieve revenues. HELD are not at the forefront of in house medical research, nor are they actively engaged in clinical trials like other companies are (eg CEL). But conversely, companies like CEL do not have easy access to the potential of low cost, high volume production that HELD have. So we could be seeing a parting of the ways (or at least a clearer distinction emerging) between those companies who are more aligned with the clinic, medicine, trials, strain banking and so on.....and those 'factory' style companies who will actually be growing vast quantities of quality, raw product and selling into a receptive market where regulation is possibly set to ease. Having made significant investments into pharmaceutical companies in the past, and where the success and perceived value of the those companies can be all too hinged upon the results in the clinic, I am fairly warm to the idea of HELD instead becoming the latter. Again this is just speculation on my part - some of which has arisen today during conversation with other PI's who are holders of sizeable amounts of stock - none of whom, like me, have sold. I think a further announcement from the company, properly drafted and befitting a company with a main listing, to fully substantiate today's news, elucidate on the advantages and provide a greater level detail as to other aspects of the business, including its Greek facility and future opportunities/channels, would be prudent. GLA. AIMO ADYOR NAI etc Read Full Thread Follow Reply
Posted at 02/5/2023 14:06 by oakridge Edited: Good link Pirates. What's interesting and encouraging is just how supportive and pro-cannabis production Greece apparently is and that producers of significance are actively choosing to operate from the country. It's hard to see how those in the UK or elsewhere in Western Europe will be able to compete going forwards. In time, the space will consolidate and you'll probably end up with only a few major, pan-european, production companies. It's a big and impressive facility (total 21,000 m2). When their growing area specifically is fully maxed out they will have 16,000m2. This represents exactly the same as HELD when in Phase 4 (ie 5 bunkers and 3 greenhouses). TTBOMK HELD will, initiallym be utilising appox 2450m2 of the facility, 1000m2 of which will be for active cultivation / growing....and scaling up from there (page 11 of the investor presentation). However, worth noting that HELD's total granted cultivation LICENSE extends to approx 40,000m2 (approx double that of Tikun's current entire facility). That helps brings some scale to just how big HELD could become, IF they get things right. Tikun are aiming at 10 tonnes of flower per year. Held are good for 55 tonnes per year, IF they ever expand out as far as they can, but they will be starting from a much, much lower base and initially will be producing only a fraction of that. HELD's facility footprint and outright license size should bode well going forwards and may even make them a worthy acquisition target in time. The footprint of a facility is important due to security and regulation issues, so to have a sizeable license match the scalability of the physical site is valuable in itself. AIMO ADYOR Read Full Thread Follow Reply
Posted at 27/3/2023 07:43 by oakridge First a five year research agreement with a Greek government department.....and today what seems to be a very high quality appointment. Interesting that HELD, even at these early stages, is able to attract such interest: Hellenic Dynamics PLC Appointment of Katherine Fleming to Advisory Board 27/03/2023 7:00am UK Regulatory (RNS & others) Hellenic Dynamics (LSE:HELD) Intraday Stock Chart Monday 27 March 2023 Click Here for more Hellenic Dynamics Charts. TIDMHELD RNS Number : 2334U Hellenic Dynamics PLC 27 March 2023 27 March 2023 Hellenic Dynamics plc ("Hellenic Dynamics" or the "Company") Appointment of Katherine Fleming to Advisory Board London, 27 March 2023: Hellenic Dynamics plc (LSE: HELD) a medical cannabis cultivation company, is pleased to announce the appointment of Katherine Fleming to its Advisory Board. Katherine is currently the President and CEO of the J. Paul Getty Trust, the international cultural and philanthropic institution, overseeing its 1,500 employees and US$8.5 billion endowment fund. Katherine previously held the position of Provost and Professor of History of New York University, the largest private university in the United States by enrolment, where she is also the Alexander S. Onassis Chair of Hellenic Studies. As Provost, she oversaw the University's global academic strategy and was responsible for budgetary allocation. Past international appointments have included serving as President of the Board of the University of Piraeus, Greece and as associate member of the faculty of the École Normale Supérieure in Paris, France. Katherine holds a number of honours including being named to the French Légion d'Honneur and being decorated by the Greek Government as a commander in the Order of Beneficence. In 2016 Katherine was recognized for her contributions to Greek culture by being granted honorary Greek citizenship. Katherine will assist Hellenic Dynamics both domestically in Greece with her strong and well-established relationships, as well as on the international stage as it aims to be the dominant supplier of THC medical cannabis products in Europe. Hellenic Dynamics is a medical cannabis cultivator specifically focused on the cultivation and supply of tetrahydrocannabinol (" THC") dominant strains of medical cannabis flowers destined for the rapidly growing medical cannabis markets across Europe. In December 2022, Hellenic Dynamics became the first medical cannabis cultivator to list on the London Stock Exchange's main market for listed securities. Davinder Rai, CEO of Hellenic Dynamics, commented: "We are honoured to have Katherine join our Advisory Board and I personally look forward to working with her. Katherine brings a huge breadth of experience that will benefit Hellenic both domestically in Greece and in wider Europe." Katherine Fleming, commented: "I'm delighted to join Hellenic Dynamics, which connects two worlds about which I care deeply: patients for whom medical cannabis can improve their quality of life and outcomes, and Greece - a country with massive potential for being the leader in the European medical cannabis cultivation space." Read Full Thread Follow Reply
Posted at 20/2/2023 22:52 by oakridge Thanks for that Xcap1. I take it you're based in the States? What you describe would indeed result in a huge shift in market dynamics, as you say. In the case of pain control / relief, HELD's ceo has commented on the situation in the USA specifically. As you are no doubt aware there is currently an out of control opioid epidemic in the States....with a significant percentage of the population suffering from opioid addiction and where those drugs in many cases no longer work. Rai has pointed to the fact that in those States where medicinal cannabis is legally prescribed, the incidence of opioid dependence is much reduced. In Europe (which will be HELD's primary target market), the culture around medicinal cannabis seems to be shifting now on a monthly basis. The period since 2017 in particular has seen very strong traction. In the time it took for HELD to go through the listing process, a further six EU countries came 'onboard' and legalised medicinal cannabis. There are now a total 25 countries to sell into. The issue now is more about improving patient access. This is something KNB are addressing as part of their 'end to end' model. A challenge, but the rewards potentially significant if they achieve it. There are a number of reports due to be published this year (including one from the NHS) which again may provide / garner much greater support for the space and encourage and enable further patient access. France have ongoing trials and the figures for efficacy and patient outcomes has been very impressive. But certain countries will require more evidence before opening further and making medicinal THC truly mainstream. Germany appears to be the most advanced market and the growth rates for the therapeutic coming out of that country are rapid......as they are from the UK too, which is a mkt still in its infancy....if that. There are many ways to play the burgeoning cannabis space.....but I think suppliers of quality, raw material, who can do it in volume and at the right price will be worth backing. As I've posted before, HELD think they are on schedule to complete their maiden harvest in late Q2. They've term sheets good for two years supply and are in advanced talks with other European distributors too. Time will tell if they are operationally competent, but so far so good and the latest recruitment of Carl Haffner can only be an encouragement in this respect. I will dig out the sales records for EU over the past few years and also the projections. It's already an underserved multi B$ mkt. If HELD can grow and crop reliably every six weeks and expand in the way they've suggested they can, I think the company could do very well. We will see. 2023 will tell us a lot and if they progress as hoped, we could be looking at a very different company in 18 - 24 months.....by which time I expect the mkt itself to have changed too; Rai has stated the plan is to grow the business with the mkt. Barely looked at the trading here today as ADVFN has been utterly hopeless. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
Posted at 15/2/2023 23:33 by oakridge From the KNB thread....yawn.... chica115 Feb '23 - 18:02 - 1695 of 1696 0 0 0 If HELD were a Biotech it would be Pre-Clinical,with NO CASH to expand to Clinical. Where are they going to get the cash for Cultivation, Marketing and Distribution? Oakridge15 Feb '23 - 23:26 - 1696 of 1696 Edit 0 0 0 IMO, HELD most probably have superior cash reserves to KNB at this point in time.....plus HELD's cash burn rate will, in all likelihood, be somewhat lower than KNB's, both now and as HELD moves through the initial phase 1 cycle this year. I suggest you look carefully at KNB's interims: at where the money is going, in what kind of quantities and so on. It's not a criticism. I am just pointing to the demands of their business model and just what they are trying to do. HELD have stated on more than one occasion that the cash from their listing is more than sufficient to get to sales - scheduled as soon as late Q2. It is intended that expansion into Phase 1b and into Phase 2 will be done in line with mkt demand and funded by sales. As for marketing and distribution, firstly I'm not sure they need to market (much). And they are selling INTO distribution channels (ie they are not distributors themselves). I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the business models of both companies and what each are and, are not, trying to do. Your earlier post trumpeting KNB's business model over HELD's apparent lack of one at all, confirms it. And once again, I see no reason to pit one company against the other as you are apparently so keen to do. They are trying to enter the market doing different things, albeit with some overlap in places, as I've previously pointed out. The business models are different. I am not saying one is better than the other but KNB's is certainly more complex to establish as they are aiming for vertical integration and ultimately, control over full supply chain, right down to CE certification and methods and points of delivery, not to mention prescription and opening up patient access. This is not something that can be done overnight and is potentially infinitely more capital intensive than HELD's phased approach of doing one thing well, over and over. Without good and ready suppliers of raw material, there is no industry. There is no primary care, no secondary care, no consultancy firms, no distributors, no vape R&D, no patents, no need for a CE and so on. Further out I'm sure HELD will want to become involved in genetic banking and contributing in some capacity to clinical trials, but they can be up and running and generating cash well before then.....just as the market currently demands. Demand for raw material is currently outstripping supply and that demand is rising sharply. HELD look like they are in with half a chance of contributing meaningfully to that supply and, on info available, being competitive to boot. Sure enough there are risks to both companies - some of which I'be mentioned in the past. But to pour scorn over one company - particularly for the REASONS you have - and to pit it against the other seems not only pointless but perhaps belies a fundamental misunderstanding of what each respective company is aiming to achieve. Who knows, KNB might end up being infinitely more successful - I'm open to that scenario - my bets are spread broadly - but it wont, imo, be for your reasoning. AIMO ADYOR NAI etc. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
Posted at 09/2/2023 11:38 by oakridge Hi Xcap1. I imagine we will see analysts begin coverage here shortly after first revenues have been announced / confirmed. TBH it's tricky to assert revenue and profit forecasts on what we currently know and even if we had all the details right before us, you will likely see some fluctuation in prices over the coming few years. More suppliers are likely to come on stream, but the culture around prescribing medicinal cannabis is similarly likely to shift too, with big steps forward in respect of patient access. It should be an interesting and dynamic period for the space as a whole. The initial term sheets the company refers to are for sales into the German market only and are thought to be good for one year's worth of supply, however it's unclear at what 'phased capacity' that 'one years supply' refers to. But let us be especially cautious at this stage and assume phase 1a ONLY and utilising only a few of HELD's initial P1 buildings/bunkers. These are already built and I believe require only minimal fit-out before they can be brought on stream. You can get an impression of the M2 of those by looking at the prospectus and working out the likely volumes achievable for every 6-7 week growing cycle). Even at this rate, it would still represent an impressive entry into the market and as has recently been announced, the company is ALREADY in advanced discussions in securing other sales contracts in Europe. It's likely and understandable that the company will be guarded for a little while longer as it secures new sales contracts into other distributors in Europe. I welcome that guardedness. Indeed the company may not release KG shipped in its first few years, but instead just release details on top line revenue and approximately where they are on the phased approach. The speed of growth in mainland Europe will, imo, be faster than some have anticipated. I say that because of the sharp rate of growth that has already been seen over the past three years and the fact that even more countries have recently come 'online' and even within the timeframe HELD was negotiating its listing (from around 19 - to now approx 25). The UK market appears more cautious and way behind say the German market, but even so the rate of domestic growth over the past few years has been running at over 400%. The projected rate of growth of the German market alone (over the next 5 years), forgetting the rest of mainland Europe and indeed the situation in the UK, is enough to keep HELD busy imo. I am not hanging my coat on the UK market / NHS and indeed there isn't a need to imo. HELD have said that they want to be the supplier of choice to the NHS...and they are talking about access into the UK market (in some form) as soon as sometime this year. That's all well and good, but remember.....this is the UK! There is still a good deal of caution here around medical cannabis and there will be twists and turns along the way, but should it happen and HELD can qualify themselves as serving the UK market via the NHS, then the market perception of this company will alter beyond all recognition. Personally, and in order to insulate my decision making from any disappointment, I have decided to discount the domestic market entirely and look only to mainland Europe, which sees a slightly more mature space that is growing freely. I think in Germany, around 80% of prescriptions (need to check that figure) are covered by healthcare insurance. As acceptance of medicinal THC increases (culturally and in the prescriptive sense) and as primary care access is improved and expanded, I think companies like HELD will be keen to scale at a rate to meet that demand. HELD will be able to do that, initially through their pre-existing buildings, but then, from late P2 onwards, via a planned 10,000 sq M greenhouse. That, again, can be done in a phased approach (not completed in one fell swoop) and, as the company has suggested, funded by revenues. One of the aspects I like about HELD is that I don't think they are trying to do 'too much'. There are other companies in this space are aiming to do everything from basic sourcing supply chain, all the way through to designing consumer products, executing R&D into methods of delivery etc and sorting primary care access and so on. I see HELD as more of a 'supplier of spades' as in the old 'gold rush' analogy. Ultimately, they were the companies who were amongst the most successful. In other words to just supply the best quality raw material, at the best price possible and at a capacity and cost base that will enable them to retain customers and build a meaningful market share. As an investor, there are many different ways to have exposure to the cannabis space: everything from the revenues achieved in private, primary care, through to CBD oils, vape technologies, combustable and non-combustable administration of THC, marketing, branding............but ultimately it ALL relies upon access to good quality raw material.....and that's true of CBD as much as it is for its more regulatory tricky THC. To supply the raw material is HELD's role and without it there isn't an industry. AIMO. ADYOR. NAI. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
Posted at 03/2/2023 00:36 by oakridge From the other thread: There isn't a single investor or trader in existence who hasn't taken a loss at some point in their career, Ashley. Well done on CBX...very pleased you made it all back AND some by the sounds of it. Even pro traders with decades of experience, and with access to the very best brains and collective pools of deep knowledge and the best tech will take losses from time to time. It happens. Dismiss anyone who tells you otherwise. 'Owning' your losses and acknowledging them is crucial in this game. Looks like you are still dealing with posters who are stuck on the issue of the companies premises / facilities! I've filtered several, but always aim to keep those with a sincere wish for genuine dialogue and debate unfiltered. Best to just leave them with their uncertainties, because if a company prospectus, official RNS announcements (which have to be reviewed by a nomad) and numerous press releases don't convince them of the facts, posters on a BB, such as you or I, wont stand a chance....and besides it should not be our job or focus. Personally, the number of reasons I have to doubt the BOD, at such an early stage, (or deny what the company has so far announced) runs at precisely zero. Thumbs up to the figures on our potential harvest. Here are a few more figures: The number of users of prescribed medicinal cannabis in the UK ALONE is thought to be over 17,000. It saw a 425% increase in 2021. The average expense for a cannabis patient is £200 a month, with an 80% retention rate. The opioid issue in GB alone is one of the worst in Europe, with a high percentage of users with an addiction issue for a drug that no longer brings benefit. The size of the market in Europe alone, for prescribed and unprescribed medicinal cannabis, is 23 billion euros. The established and predicted growth rates for Germany alone (HELD's initial target market) are vast and published in the prospectus. 54k kg per annum will be HELD working to full capacity and after a period of phased expansion (which will take time) all of which they've been granted licenses for. If peeps want to try to bring some perspective to that figure, they should check out what the current ANNUAL (kg) demand for the WHOLE of Europe is. It will give some impression as to how big HELD COULD potentially become and how significant a player they COULD be. As RAI said, HELD's granted license is one of the largest awarded in Europe to date. Of course, it wont come immediately and there will be some fluctuation in prices over the years, but the potential economies of scale offered by their site and the competitive cost of production (for all the reasons we've discussed) mean that they stand of a good chance of remaining competitive where certain others might begin to struggle. Another approach could be to completely detach yourself from HELD and imagine being another potential producer of, or investor in, another Western European cannabis firm. The question: Would HELD concern you? I think you would find some legitimate reasons to be concerned: Do they have cash? Yes. Enough to secure initial sales? Yes. Have they lined up or secured any customers? Apparently so, yes. Are those initial deals believed to be of meaningful volume? Apparently so, yes. Do they have the capacity to scale up and fulfil larger and larger contracts? Yes. Do they have a license granted for that expansion? Yes. Do they have access to more capital if needed? Potentially, yes. Are their water costs cheaper than ours? Almost certainly. What about their other energy costs? Almost certainly cheaper. Is the regional climate generally more supportive to their aims, than ours? Very possibly. Can they supply cheaper labour? Most probably. Do they have any talent or anyone who has 'done it before' on their BOD? Yes. Several. Even if the above DIDN'T concern you, you would at least think HELD has half a chance at becoming an established player in the space, and thus worth considerably more than it is at present. Today saw the largest trading volume in the shares since around the time of the listing in December. But at 81M, it is still an incredibly very small figure. As I suggested in an earlier post, IMO the shares have fallen due to a worked sell but I do not think it will be long till the demand side kicks in as the capitalisation reaches a level that the market can no longer ignore. The MM's job, although sometimes shrouded with mystery, sculduggery, smoke and mirrors, is ultimately to process orders from both sides, to 'make a market' (funnily enough) and to match supply and demand....and all whilst making a killing in the process. IMO I do not believe the FALL in price, mainly due - it would seem - to Mr 10M (singular), is representative of the overall MARKET consensus of this very young company or indeed its future prospects. And so, on the info currently available, I will continue to monitor HELD and judge the present weakness as an opportunity, at least until anything emerges to suggest the contrary. Adding at certain points and being more concerned with the mkt cap I'm buying in at and less obsessed with where the floor of the share price might be. I watched KNB for over a year before hitting the buy button.....but IMO I don't think HELD's depressed state will be as protracted at KNB's...mainly because HELD has launched into a flat space (soon to change imo) and is just so close to revenues. In contrast, KNB launched into a very heady space (the peak of the cannabis hype) but was, at that time, a long way off meaningful revenues (and has shown some hefty expenses in the meantime): all in all a recipe for a long 'hangover'. And I say that with no disrespect to KNB as I do not believe this is a situation where you have to rate one company over the other. It is simply a matter of timelines. All imo as always. NAI. ADYOR and RYOC. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
Posted at 03/2/2023 00:26 by oakridge There isn't a single investor or trader in existence who hasn't taken a loss at some point in their career, Ashley. Well done on CBX...very pleased you made it all back AND some by the sounds of it. Even pro traders with decades of experience, and with access to the very best brains and collective pools of deep knowledge and the best tech will take losses from time to time. It happens. Dismiss anyone who tells you otherwise. 'Owning' your losses and acknowledging them is crucial in this game. Looks like you are still dealing with posters who are stuck on the issue of the companies premises / facilities! I've filtered several, but always aim to keep those with a sincere wish for genuine dialogue and debate unfiltered. Best to just leave them with their uncertainties, because if a company prospectus, official RNS announcements (which have to be reviewed by a nomad) and numerous press releases don't convince them of the facts, posters on a BB, such as you or I, wont stand a chance....and besides it should not be our job or focus. Personally, the number of reasons I have to doubt the BOD, at such an early stage, (or deny what the company has so far announced) runs at precisely zero. Thumbs up to the figures on our potential harvest. Here are a few more figures: The number of users of prescribed medicinal cannabis in the UK ALONE is thought to be over 17,000. It saw a 425% increase in 2021. The average expense for a cannabis patient is £200 a month, with an 80% retention rate. The opioid issue in GB alone is one of the worst in Europe, with a high percentage of users with an addiction issue for a drug that no longer brings benefit. The size of the market in Europe alone, for prescribed and unprescribed medicinal cannabis, is 23 billion euros. The established and predicted growth rates for Germany alone (HELD's initial target market) are vast and published in the prospectus. 54k kg per annum will be HELD working to full capacity and after a period of phased expansion (which will take time) all of which they've been granted licenses for. If peeps want to try to bring some perspective to that figure, they should check out what the current ANNUAL (kg) demand for the WHOLE of Europe is. It will give some impression as to how big HELD COULD potentially become and how significant a player they COULD be. As RAI said, HELD's granted license is one of the largest awarded in Europe to date. Of course, it wont come immediately and there will be some fluctuation in prices over the years, but the potential economies of scale offered by their site and the competitive cost of production (for all the reasons we've discussed) mean that they stand of a good chance of remaining competitive where certain others might begin to struggle. Another approach could be to completely detach yourself from HELD and imagine being another potential producer of, or investor in, another Western European cannabis firm. The question: Would HELD concern you? I think you would find some legitimate reasons to be concerned: Do they have cash? Yes. Enough to secure initial sales? Yes. Have they lined up or secured any customers? Apparently so, yes. Are those initial deals believed to be of meaningful volume? Apparently so, yes. Do they have the capacity to scale up and fulfil larger and larger contracts? Yes. Do they have a license granted for that expansion? Yes. Do they have access to more capital if needed? Potentially, yes. Are their water costs cheaper than ours? Almost certainly. What about their other energy costs? Almost certainly cheaper. Is the regional climate generally more supportive to their aims, than ours? Very possibly. Can they supply cheaper labour? Most probably. Do they have any talent or anyone who has 'done it before' on their BOD? Yes. Several. Even if the above DIDN'T concern you, you would at least think HELD has half a chance at becoming an established player in the space, and thus worth considerably more than it is at present. Today saw the largest trading volume in the shares since around the time of the listing in December. But at 81M, it is still an incredibly very small figure. As I suggested in an earlier post, IMO the shares have fallen due to a worked sell but I do not think it will be long till the demand side kicks in as the capitalisation reaches a level that the market can no longer ignore. The MM's job, although sometimes shrouded with mystery, sculduggery, smoke and mirrors, is ultimately to process orders from both sides, to 'make a market' (funnily enough) and to match supply and demand....and all whilst making a killing in the process. IMO I do not believe the FALL in price, mainly due - it would seem - to Mr 10M (singular), is representative of the overall MARKET consensus of this very young company or indeed its future prospects. And so, on the info currently available, I will continue to monitor HELD and judge the present weakness as an opportunity, at least until anything emerges to suggest the contrary. Adding at certain points and being more concerned with the mkt cap I'm buying in at and less obsessed with where the floor of the share price might be. I watched KNB for over a year before hitting the buy button.....but IMO I don't think HELD's depressed state will be as protracted at KNB's...mainly because HELD has launched into a flat space (soon to change imo) and is just so close to revenues. In contrast, KNB launched into a very heady space (the peak of the cannabis hype) but was, at that time, a long way off meaningful revenues (and has shown some hefty expenses in the meantime): all in all a recipe for a long 'hangover'. And I say that with no disrespect to KNB as I do not believe this is a situation where you have to rate one company over the other. It is simply a matter of timelines. All imo as always. NAI. ADYOR and RYOC. Read Full Thread Follow Reply
Posted at 18/12/2022 14:47 by oakridge 12.5B is a big number. There's no getting away from that. But it's currently possible to buy a very big number of shares for very little money. So in some large respect it's all relative. You could consolidate for say a 1/12 or 1/18 basis but your holding or ability to buy certain volumes would simply adjust and follow suit. I think what matters more, aside from these numbers, is the potential of the business and where it currently sits on the value curve. This is the beginning and for the moment it will remain volatile until the company begins releasing news - including initial sales figures/agreements into Germany and other regions. From there the market will begin to fairly assess the potential and likely speed and timing of revenues as well as HELD's market reach over the coming months and years. Until then the price will gyrate as old holders leave and others arrive. What actually encourages me the most here, above everything else, is the apparent dogged commitment by the CEO to get the deal over the line and to get us trading again. None of us expected it to take as long as it did and whenever we got an update, Jay always stated Hellenic's absolute commitment to stick to the deal. And so it has transpired; now we are back to market and HELD's time and journey as a listed company has barely begun. We have to erase the past near two years from our minds as those negotiations and holdups are now largely irrelevant. They are also of course especially irrelevant to those investors looking at this company afresh. As an old Mountfield holder, another positive factor that has come to light and which I hadn't fully appreciated, is the regulation and logistics around the actual cultivation.....all of which HELD now fully complies. So perhaps the biggest barrier to entry for this sector is the one HELD has lead on and overcome. Whether it will now be like a hot knife through butter for any others who want to follow, or whether they too will find lengthy delays, I just don't know. But let's suppose HELD's successful listing has now made it easier for others....the other likely 'barriers to entry' for those other growers will be 1) cost of production and 2) security of premises. On both of these fronts HELD looks to be well positioned. I cannot see Western European countries EASILY competing with northern Greece in terms of climate, energy requirements, water and work force costs. The facility they are using, including the scope and potential for rapid expansion, meets stringent requirements (including those of security) for the growing of this crop. Others looking to move into the space will need to match that and this will require some time and capex. Rai is correct to cite the M&A activity that will likely take place in this space. I see much larger players wanting exposure over the coming 5 years and what easier than buying up and consolidating those companies and the ongoing supply agreements they've worked hard to establish. As an early mover in cultivation this is why HELD now needs to work quickly to make deals and sign supply agreements. IMO the biggest negative I see here has actually already come and gone, namely delays around regulation and listing. Rai has stated that raised funds will be used carefully and that supply agreements will follow. It would be good to see a nice run of these coming over the next 24 months and seeing just how cash generative we can become.....I also anticipate this company will be very active on social media and both shareholder and customer engagement. Time will tell. AIMO etc and always do your own research etc Read Full Thread Follow Reply

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