Hellenic Dynamics Share Discussion Threads

[pirates4] 07/6/2023 12:11

Buys so far

[extrader] 07/6/2023 12:06

Oakridge,

It's a bit disingenuous - to put it mildly - to put out a news release for general consumption that uses a company-specific FY basis, rather than one that the average investor (never mind the general public) would understand.

Either naive or foolish, neither reflects well on the co's communications skills.

IMO

[1gw] 07/6/2023 12:03

Not invested here, but have followed the story since Cathal Friel emerged as a shareholder.

This discussion is just ridiculous. Financial Years are named after the year in which they finish, so FY23 is the year ending 31st March 2023 for HELD. If the company has a 31st March 2023 year-end and in December is talking about 2Q 2023 as a date in the future then it is clearly talking about the calendar year as 2Q FY23 is already in the past.

[oakridge] 07/6/2023 11:52

The question is whether HELD mean Q1 and Q2 Financial 2023 or Calendar 2023.

Standard practice when using a Quarter followed by a year would infer Financial year.

However confusion has arisen, for example, where different language around the dates has been used. For example Rai, in an RNS in January stated: "facility in Greece is on track to be ready for the first harvest to take place in the second quarter of this year".

'THIS year', spoken in January.

Clarity is probably best achieved in asking the company....or the company issuing a proper and fuller update, as I suggested earlier today.

AIMO. ADYOR.

Regards.

[oakridge] 07/6/2023 11:39

judi - I think it is you who needs to read your quote again for the mention of a 'Q'. I've put it in bold for you:


Highlights
-- Phase one cultivation fit out strategy well underway
-- On track for first harvest in mid-2023

The Company expects to complete the initial fit-out and activation phase of its facility during Q1 2023 which will enable it to cultivate, harvest and supply its pre-allocated medical cannabis flowers to its off-take customers in Germany during mid-2023

[judijudi] 07/6/2023 11:33

oakridge,
Where on my post from the company themselves does it state anything about quarters or Q1, Q2 or any Q’s
Read it again but slowly this time

Highlights
-- Phase one cultivation fit out strategy well underway
-- On track for first harvest in mid-2023

The Company expects to complete the initial fit-out and activation phase of its facility during Q1 2023 which will enable it to cultivate, harvest and supply its pre-allocated medical cannabis flowers to its off-take customers in Germany during mid-2023

There is nothing ambiguous about them twice mentioning being on track for the first harvest mid 2023!!

[oakridge] 07/6/2023 11:26

Pirates4....your post 855 makes no sense at all.

[oakridge] 07/6/2023 11:24

judi, as I've explained, when a company states quarters (eg "Q1 2023", as you've quoted above) it is normally inferred as the financial quarter.

Q1 2023 would therefore equate to April-June 2023, and end of Q2 2023 would imply September 2023.

The fact that there is discussion amongst shareholders about this very issue at HELD is proof enough that there has indeed been ambiguity or inconsistent language. We would not normally be discussing this.

I had always thought the company meant Financial Q2 (ie July-September).

I guess the definitive answer is to make contact with the company and ask what they mean by Q2 2023....or look for anywhere in past documents where they've mentioned August/September, which would confirm it. Rai may have mentioned months in a past video interview....I don't have time to call the co right now or re watch old interviews.

AIMO ADYOR.

[pirates4] 07/6/2023 11:05

You have remember that the financial year ended I'm March so this report is delayed and rushed out.

[judijudi] 07/6/2023 10:57

oakridge
Nothing ambiguous about the dates whatsoever

As quoted by the company:

Highlights
-- Phase one cultivation fit out strategy well underway
-- On track for first harvest in mid-2023

The Company expects to complete the initial fit-out and activation phase of its facility during Q1 2023 which will enable it to cultivate, harvest and supply its pre-allocated medical cannabis flowers to its off-take customers in Germany during mid-2023

[oakridge] 07/6/2023 09:43

Yesterday's RNS was a 'Business Update', which focussed mainly on one aspect of the business.

The company should consider putting out a fuller, 6 month update for shareholders and in doing so they would have the opportunity to clarify certain points and provide a fuller account of the progress made during the first 6 months since listing.

This would be prudent and perhaps we might just get it.

AIMO NAI. etc

[oakridge] 07/6/2023 09:35

Judi, there is some confusion over the proposed date of the anticipated first harvest.

In my opinion, that in itself is the fault of the company and its careless use of language at certain points over the past year.

Honestly, I think on balance they always meant late Q2 of the 2023 FINANCIAL year (not calendar year) which would infer September, in which case not much will have changed at all.

HELD's financial year is in step with the British tax year...ie H1 = April-Sept.

Normally when a company states, say, "Q2" followed by a year (in this case 2023), they are referring to their financial year. That is standard.

However, there have been inconsistencies which have caused confusion. For example, on 23rd January Davinder Rai, in the Business Update RNS stated, I quote:

"We have continued to make good progress since our IPO and our cultivation and processing facility in Greece is on track to be ready for the first harvest to take place in the second quarter of this year."

THIS year, in that context, stated at that time, would imply the Calendar year. If he meant Q2 2023 of the financial year he should have stated 'Q2 2023-2024'.

From the company website Dated 5th December 2022:

Pre-sales: Hellenic expects the first flowers will be cultivated during Q2 2023 with commercial sales expected to occur within or just after this quarter. The Board envisages that all flowers to be produced in stage one of operations will be sold through two term- sheets to licensed distributors in Germany, Europe’s largest medial cannabis market.

'Late summer harvest' is consistent with 'late Q2 2023' in the accounting sense.....but this area has been inadequately communicated and warrants clarity imo.

Further I am unsure how dropping EU-GMP would push out first harvest........particularly when the company announced back in January that strong progress had been made in the fit out of the facility and that they were well on-track, as planned.

It's basically a conversation we shouldn't be having. Communication needs to be improved.

AIMO ADYOR etc

[judijudi] 07/6/2023 08:52

Oakridge,
Good piece
However you fail to mention the missed deadline given by the company for the first harvest which was scheduled for mid summer 2023 (which is now)
This has now been pushed back to late summer so potentially a 3 month ish delay
Markets hate delays

[solarno lopez] 07/6/2023 08:32

Excellent piece Oakridge thank you

[pirates4] 07/6/2023 08:30

Cultivating and export of THC, not only in Europe but to likes of Canada, USA outside of Europe.

[oakridge] 06/6/2023 23:17

I think over previous weeks, many retail investors had strongly anticipated 'the next big RNS' to be the one that might offer the opportunity to bank some profits. This is perhaps not unreasonable given the strides of progress that were reported back in January.

Instead, today's RNS brought an update different to the one many had expected and so it effectively threw the market a curve ball.

I think we would have seen strong sell today, even if we had been served up the news that the site in Greece was now more or less fully commissioned and the first clones were growing (complete with twitter photos of green shoots etc). So we saw weakness both on the back of the lack such confirmation, but also from those who got spooked at the change in strategy - which in itself wasn't sufficiently explained or properly communicated.

What is perhaps more surprising is just how much buy activity there was. This suggests that a lot of people have been watching the company with a view to taking up stock on any weakness. The advfn columns seem accurate enough, with 142.8M buys vs 123.3M sells vs 67.6M question marked.

IMO the news itself isn't 'bad', but the drafting of the RNS, the delivery and the detail around the 'story' could do with serious improvement. On one hand it is a good thing that the company can be so agile and nimble as the market evolves......however, on the other hand, senior management should realise that any change in strategy - particularly for a company so early in its business cycle - needs to be fully and properly explained, with a substantial level of detail together with reassurances over other aspects of the business. This was lacking.

If we take the RNS at face value, which I guess we have to, the decision to shelve the apparently expensive and time consuming process of EU-GMP, in favour of selling GACP certified flowers to those distributors who have already invested in EU-GMP, seems to make sense.....particularly if they can do so profitably and retain good margins. I would imagine management have watched other companies trying to attain EU-GMP, assessed the costs and time, and have decided that the rationale for following suit is not strong enough and have favoured allocating funds to getting to first sales and perhaps leveraging on the core assets of the company, namely a vastly scalable facility and a very large license. In other words to compete, as soon as possible, on scale and volume.

Ultimately this is what the European cannabis market will come down to: volume production, scalability and costs. If they can grow a lot of product and sell it without EU-GMP to those who have it (a route which, in itself, might be an entirely new development for the space - I'm unsure) then perhaps it is prudent to go that way. The company has, after all, been tied up in enough protracted regulation and box-ticking already, what with the listing process, which took almost a year longer than anticipated.

Is the move as disruptive and is it such a big shake up as Rai insists? I'm unsure.

Looking beyond the surface of this RNS, could it be that the potential easing of regulation in certain countries in Europe mean that soon there could be a fierce demand, not just for medicinal cannabis but also for recreational and/or 'self-medicated' cannabis (?). If so, it might mean that EU-GMP is not needed for cultivators who sell to distributors who do have it....in which case it might be a poor strategy to tie themselves to a regulatory process which in itself could, in time, effectively become obsolete. This is speculation and hypothesising on my part.

Whatever, they key to HELD's success is almost certainly going to be about scale and volume production. As far as I can determine, today's RNS does not impede on that potential but instead may actually free the company to go large sooner than they might have done, had they become embroiled in EU-GMP, or at least at THIS stage, when they don't actually HAVE to in order to achieve revenues.

HELD are not at the forefront of in house medical research, nor are they actively engaged in clinical trials like other companies are (eg CEL). But conversely, companies like CEL do not have easy access to the potential of low cost, high volume production that HELD have.

So we *could* be seeing a parting of the ways (or at least a clearer distinction emerging) between those companies who are more aligned with the clinic, medicine, trials, strain banking and so on.....and those 'factory' style companies who will actually be growing vast quantities of quality, raw product and selling into a receptive market where regulation is possibly set to ease.

Having made significant investments into pharmaceutical companies in the past, and where the success and perceived value of the those companies can be all too hinged upon the results in the clinic, I am fairly warm to the idea of HELD instead becoming the latter.

Again this is just speculation on my part - some of which has arisen today during conversation with other PI's who are holders of sizeable amounts of stock - none of whom, like me, have sold.

I think a further announcement from the company, properly drafted and befitting a company with a main listing, to fully substantiate today's news, elucidate on the advantages and provide a greater level detail as to other aspects of the business, including its Greek facility and future opportunities/channels, would be prudent.

GLA.

AIMO ADYOR NAI etc

[pirates4] 06/6/2023 22:02

Cultivation and export of THC was the plan initially. But to get a eu gmp would have been a bonus. All in all we're still progressing the road map. The drop in share price should not have a big impact coming up to mid year.

[oakridge] 06/6/2023 20:56

Lengthy conversations with some fellow holders this evening.

More thoughts to follow.

[pirates4] 06/6/2023 20:39

Get a GMP certification in the UK and sell it to the ROTW. Britain is Brexit. Yet Hellenic got to list their shares on the LSE.

[pirates4] 06/6/2023 16:33

Probably bounce back up tomorrow

[pirates4] 06/6/2023 16:31

There were some big buyers earlier during the day

[pirates4] 06/6/2023 16:27

Hellenic will instead concentrate on the cultivation and supply of GACP flowers to its EU-GMP certified distributors, saving the Company considerable time and expense. This again shows the evolving nature of the European cannabis markets.

[pirates4] 06/6/2023 16:19

Tomorrow might be a better rns to top it up

[judijudi] 06/6/2023 13:22

Market hates the rns
And I’m not keen either