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HELD

Hellenic Dynamics Plc

0.1725
-0.0025 (-1.43%)
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Hellenic Dynamics Plc LSE:HELD London Ordinary Share GB00B3CQW227 ORD 0.1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.0025 -1.43% 0.1725 10,391,024 13:06:19
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
0.165 0.18 0.1785 0.1675 0.175
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:08:00 O 238,925 0.165 GBX

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Date Time Title Posts
31/5/202309:40Hellenic Dynamics822
03/5/202308:11Hellenic Dynamics - All Views Welcome176

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Hellenic Dynamics (HELD) Most Recent Trades

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2023-06-02 15:08:010.17238,925394.23O
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2023-06-02 13:41:310.17303,030500.00O
2023-06-02 12:06:200.1826,42247.56O
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Hellenic Dynamics (HELD) Top Chat Posts

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Posted at 02/5/2023 14:06 by oakridge
Edited:

Good link Pirates.

What's interesting and encouraging is just how supportive and pro-cannabis production Greece apparently is and that producers of significance are actively choosing to operate from the country. It's hard to see how those in the UK or elsewhere in Western Europe will be able to compete going forwards. In time, the space will consolidate and you'll probably end up with only a few major, pan-european, production companies.

It's a big and impressive facility (total 21,000 m2). When their growing area specifically is fully maxed out they will have 16,000m2. This represents exactly the same as HELD when in Phase 4 (ie 5 bunkers and 3 greenhouses). TTBOMK HELD will, initiallym be utilising appox 2450m2 of the facility, 1000m2 of which will be for active cultivation / growing....and scaling up from there (page 11 of the investor presentation).

However, worth noting that HELD's total granted cultivation LICENSE extends to approx 40,000m2 (approx double that of Tikun's current entire facility). That helps brings some scale to just how big HELD could become, IF they get things right.

Tikun are aiming at 10 tonnes of flower per year. Held are good for 55 tonnes per year, IF they ever expand out as far as they can, but they will be starting from a much, much lower base and initially will be producing only a fraction of that.

HELD's facility footprint and outright license size should bode well going forwards and may even make them a worthy acquisition target in time. The footprint of a facility is important due to security and regulation issues, so to have a sizeable license match the scalability of the physical site is valuable in itself.

AIMO ADYOR

Posted at 15/2/2023 23:33 by oakridge
From the KNB thread....yawn....


chica115 Feb '23 - 18:02 - 1695 of 1696
0 0 0

If HELD were a Biotech it would be Pre-Clinical,with NO CASH to expand to Clinical.

Where are they going to get the cash for Cultivation, Marketing and Distribution?




Oakridge15 Feb '23 - 23:26 - 1696 of 1696 Edit
0 0 0

IMO, HELD most probably have superior cash reserves to KNB at this point in time.....plus HELD's cash burn rate will, in all likelihood, be somewhat lower than KNB's, both now and as HELD moves through the initial phase 1 cycle this year.

I suggest you look carefully at KNB's interims: at where the money is going, in what kind of quantities and so on. It's not a criticism. I am just pointing to the demands of their business model and just what they are trying to do.

HELD have stated on more than one occasion that the cash from their listing is more than sufficient to get to sales - scheduled as soon as late Q2. It is intended that expansion into Phase 1b and into Phase 2 will be done in line with mkt demand and funded by sales.

As for marketing and distribution, firstly I'm not sure they need to market (much). And they are selling INTO distribution channels (ie they are not distributors themselves).

I think you have a fundamental misunderstanding of the business models of both companies and what each are and, are not, trying to do. Your earlier post trumpeting KNB's business model over HELD's apparent lack of one at all, confirms it.

And once again, I see no reason to pit one company against the other as you are apparently so keen to do. They are trying to enter the market doing different things, albeit with some overlap in places, as I've previously pointed out.

The business models are different. I am not saying one is better than the other but KNB's is certainly more complex to establish as they are aiming for vertical integration and ultimately, control over full supply chain, right down to CE certification and methods and points of delivery, not to mention prescription and opening up patient access.

This is not something that can be done overnight and is potentially infinitely more capital intensive than HELD's phased approach of doing one thing well, over and over.

Without good and ready suppliers of raw material, there is no industry.

There is no primary care, no secondary care, no consultancy firms, no distributors, no vape R&D, no patents, no need for a CE and so on.

Further out I'm sure HELD will want to become involved in genetic banking and contributing in some capacity to clinical trials, but they can be up and running and generating cash well before then.....just as the market currently demands.

Demand for raw material is currently outstripping supply and that demand is rising sharply.

HELD look like they are in with half a chance of contributing meaningfully to that supply and, on info available, being competitive to boot.

Sure enough there are risks to both companies - some of which I'be mentioned in the past. But to pour scorn over one company - particularly for the REASONS you have - and to pit it against the other seems not only pointless but perhaps belies a fundamental misunderstanding of what each respective company is aiming to achieve.

Who knows, KNB might end up being infinitely more successful - I'm open to that scenario - my bets are spread broadly - but it wont, imo, be for your reasoning.

AIMO ADYOR NAI etc.

Posted at 09/2/2023 11:38 by oakridge
Hi Xcap1.

I imagine we will see analysts begin coverage here shortly after first revenues have been announced / confirmed. TBH it's tricky to assert revenue and profit forecasts on what we currently know and even if we had all the details right before us, you will likely see some fluctuation in prices over the coming few years. More suppliers are likely to come on stream, but the culture around prescribing medicinal cannabis is similarly likely to shift too, with big steps forward in respect of patient access.

It should be an interesting and dynamic period for the space as a whole.

The initial term sheets the company refers to are for sales into the German market only and are thought to be good for one year's worth of supply, however it's unclear at what 'phased capacity' that 'one years supply' refers to. But let us be especially cautious at this stage and assume phase 1a ONLY and utilising only a few of HELD's initial P1 buildings/bunkers. These are already built and I believe require only minimal fit-out before they can be brought on stream. You can get an impression of the M2 of those by looking at the prospectus and working out the likely volumes achievable for every 6-7 week growing cycle). Even at this rate, it would still represent an impressive entry into the market and as has recently been announced, the company is ALREADY in advanced discussions in securing other sales contracts in Europe.

It's likely and understandable that the company will be guarded for a little while longer as it secures new sales contracts into other distributors in Europe. I welcome that guardedness. Indeed the company may not release KG shipped in its first few years, but instead just release details on top line revenue and approximately where they are on the phased approach.

The speed of growth in mainland Europe will, imo, be faster than some have anticipated. I say that because of the sharp rate of growth that has already been seen over the past three years and the fact that even more countries have recently come 'online' and even within the timeframe HELD was negotiating its listing (from around 19 - to now approx 25). The UK market appears more cautious and way behind say the German market, but even so the rate of domestic growth over the past few years has been running at over 400%. The projected rate of growth of the German market alone (over the next 5 years), forgetting the rest of mainland Europe and indeed the situation in the UK, is enough to keep HELD busy imo.

I am not hanging my coat on the UK market / NHS and indeed there isn't a need to imo. HELD have said that they want to be the supplier of choice to the NHS...and they are talking about access into the UK market (in some form) as soon as sometime this year. That's all well and good, but remember.....this is the UK! There is still a good deal of caution here around medical cannabis and there will be twists and turns along the way, but *should* it happen and HELD can qualify themselves as serving the UK market via the NHS, then the market perception of this company will alter beyond all recognition. Personally, and in order to insulate my decision making from any disappointment, I have decided to discount the domestic market entirely and look only to mainland Europe, which sees a slightly more mature space that is growing freely. I think in Germany, around 80% of prescriptions (need to check that figure) are covered by healthcare insurance.

As acceptance of medicinal THC increases (culturally and in the prescriptive sense) and as primary care access is improved and expanded, I think companies like HELD will be keen to scale at a rate to meet that demand. HELD will be able to do that, initially through their pre-existing buildings, but then, from late P2 onwards, via a planned 10,000 sq M greenhouse. That, again, can be done in a phased approach (not completed in one fell swoop) and, as the company has suggested, funded by revenues.

One of the aspects I like about HELD is that I don't think they are trying to do 'too much'. There are other companies in this space are aiming to do everything from basic sourcing supply chain, all the way through to designing consumer products, executing R&D into methods of delivery etc and sorting primary care access and so on.

I see HELD as more of a 'supplier of spades' as in the old 'gold rush' analogy. Ultimately, they were the companies who were amongst the most successful. In other words to just supply the best quality raw material, at the best price possible and at a capacity and cost base that will enable them to retain customers and build a meaningful market share.

As an investor, there are many different ways to have exposure to the cannabis space: everything from the revenues achieved in private, primary care, through to CBD oils, vape technologies, combustable and non-combustable administration of THC, marketing, branding............but ultimately it ALL relies upon access to good quality raw material.....and that's true of CBD as much as it is for its more regulatory tricky THC.

To supply the raw material is HELD's role and without it there isn't an industry.

AIMO. ADYOR. NAI.

Posted at 04/2/2023 13:24 by oakridge
Judi. I didn't look in yesterday, but for someone who doesn't hold you're surprisingly obsessed with the minutiae of this companies share price and perhaps even more so than me!

You read alright, but in light of the very generous efforts I have gone to, to set out a certain perspective (or investment approach) it seems you read blindly and perhaps wilfully so.

If you are so keen to judge me, then judge me. However you should judge me on MY OWN rationale and timelines - (and not through the lens of your own) which I've already clearly set out: namely that we have an 18 - 24 month view on HELD.

You have already strongly alluded to YOUR OWN investment/trading criteria, i.e. a need (let me say that again - 'a NEED')for a quick profit and revealed your own distress / frailties in the face of a weakening share price.

I'm not judging you on that, but instead highlighting it so as to bring some distinction between our respective approaches and how judging someone else's position, through your own criteria, is close to pointless....other than your apparent wish to point-score in front of your imaginary audience. This aspect seems especially important for you....but at least you are consistent, as your general input across your other posts on advfn reveals.

Taking YOUR approach / criteria into mind and looking at HELD specifically, one could argue that you have already failed in choosing to be here (as the performance of this stock would be both distressing for you and not a fit to the very near-term aspirations you have for your capital deployed).

In contrast, one could argue that my strategy is still very much 'in play' and the situation unfolding is not entirely unpalatable for me , as it clearly is for yourself.

Once again. Different approaches which reflect our varying rationale and personalities. Everyone invests differently. And everyone will react to weak share prices in different ways. I am sorry you are unable to see this. But the distress is yours, not mine.

Posting before, during and after the event, my approach at KNB last week was different and resulted in a very considerable near term gain.

Horses for courses. A different situation. A different approach.

Indeed the rally at KNB would have been an ideal fit for your apparent criteria. I'm sorry if you failed to act on it there. Your time would be better spent looking for the next situation that suits your trading personality and criteria, instead of posting tedious remarks to someone who has a different approach and on a company you dislike quite so much.

I've been extremely generous in my time with you, but you are now filtered for the reasons explained.

However I may remove you from the filter in 18 months time and, for better or for worse, we can compare or contrast then.

All the best.

Posted at 03/2/2023 00:36 by oakridge
From the other thread:

There isn't a single investor or trader in existence who hasn't taken a loss at some point in their career, Ashley. Well done on CBX...very pleased you made it all back AND some by the sounds of it. Even pro traders with decades of experience, and with access to the very best brains and collective pools of deep knowledge and the best tech will take losses from time to time. It happens.

Dismiss anyone who tells you otherwise.

'Owning' your losses and acknowledging them is crucial in this game.

Looks like you are still dealing with posters who are stuck on the issue of the companies premises / facilities! I've filtered several, but always aim to keep those with a sincere wish for genuine dialogue and debate unfiltered. Best to just leave them with their uncertainties, because if a company prospectus, official RNS announcements (which have to be reviewed by a nomad) and numerous press releases don't convince them of the facts, posters on a BB, such as you or I, wont stand a chance....and besides it should not be our job or focus.

Personally, the number of reasons I have to doubt the BOD, at such an early stage, (or deny what the company has so far announced) runs at precisely zero.

Thumbs up to the figures on our potential harvest. Here are a few more figures:

The number of users of prescribed medicinal cannabis in the UK ALONE is thought to be over 17,000. It saw a 425% increase in 2021. The average expense for a cannabis patient is £200 a month, with an 80% retention rate. The opioid issue in GB alone is one of the worst in Europe, with a high percentage of users with an addiction issue for a drug that no longer brings benefit.

The size of the market in Europe alone, for prescribed and unprescribed medicinal cannabis, is 23 billion euros.

The established and predicted growth rates for Germany alone (HELD's initial target market) are vast and published in the prospectus.

54k kg per annum will be HELD working to full capacity and after a period of phased expansion (which will take time) all of which they've been granted licenses for. If peeps want to try to bring some perspective to that figure, they should check out what the current ANNUAL (kg) demand for the WHOLE of Europe is. It will give some impression as to how big HELD COULD potentially become and how significant a player they COULD be. As RAI said, HELD's granted license is one of the largest awarded in Europe to date. Of course, it wont come immediately and there will be some fluctuation in prices over the years, but the potential economies of scale offered by their site and the competitive cost of production (for all the reasons we've discussed) mean that they stand of a good chance of remaining competitive where certain others might begin to struggle.

Another approach could be to completely detach yourself from HELD and imagine being another potential producer of, or investor in, another Western European cannabis firm.

The question:

Would HELD concern you?

I think you would find some legitimate reasons to be concerned:

Do they have cash? Yes.
Enough to secure initial sales? Yes.
Have they lined up or secured any customers? Apparently so, yes.
Are those initial deals believed to be of meaningful volume? Apparently so, yes.
Do they have the capacity to scale up and fulfil larger and larger contracts? Yes.
Do they have a license granted for that expansion? Yes.
Do they have access to more capital if needed? Potentially, yes.
Are their water costs cheaper than ours? Almost certainly.
What about their other energy costs? Almost certainly cheaper.
Is the regional climate generally more supportive to their aims, than ours? Very possibly.
Can they supply cheaper labour? Most probably.
Do they have any talent or anyone who has 'done it before' on their BOD? Yes. Several.

Even if the above DIDN'T concern you, you would at least think HELD has half a chance at becoming an established player in the space, and thus worth considerably more than it is at present.

Today saw the largest trading volume in the shares since around the time of the listing in December. But at 81M, it is still an incredibly very small figure.

As I suggested in an earlier post, IMO the shares have fallen due to a worked sell but I do not think it will be long till the demand side kicks in as the capitalisation reaches a level that the market can no longer ignore. The MM's job, although sometimes shrouded with mystery, sculduggery, smoke and mirrors, is ultimately to process orders from both sides, to 'make a market' (funnily enough) and to match supply and demand....and all whilst making a killing in the process.

IMO I do not believe the FALL in price, mainly due - it would seem - to Mr 10M (singular), is representative of the overall MARKET consensus of this very young company or indeed its future prospects. And so, on the info currently available, I will continue to monitor HELD and judge the present weakness as an opportunity, at least until anything emerges to suggest the contrary. Adding at certain points and being more concerned with the mkt cap I'm buying in at and less obsessed with where the floor of the share price might be.

I watched KNB for over a year before hitting the buy button.....but IMO I don't think HELD's depressed state will be as protracted at KNB's...mainly because HELD has launched into a flat space (soon to change imo) and is just so close to revenues. In contrast, KNB launched into a very heady space (the peak of the cannabis hype) but was, at that time, a long way off meaningful revenues (and has shown some hefty expenses in the meantime): all in all a recipe for a long 'hangover'. And I say that with no disrespect to KNB as I do not believe this is a situation where you have to rate one company over the other. It is simply a matter of timelines.

All imo as always. NAI. ADYOR and RYOC.

Posted at 03/2/2023 00:26 by oakridge
There isn't a single investor or trader in existence who hasn't taken a loss at some point in their career, Ashley. Well done on CBX...very pleased you made it all back AND some by the sounds of it. Even pro traders with decades of experience, and with access to the very best brains and collective pools of deep knowledge and the best tech will take losses from time to time. It happens.

Dismiss anyone who tells you otherwise.

'Owning' your losses and acknowledging them is crucial in this game.

Looks like you are still dealing with posters who are stuck on the issue of the companies premises / facilities! I've filtered several, but always aim to keep those with a sincere wish for genuine dialogue and debate unfiltered. Best to just leave them with their uncertainties, because if a company prospectus, official RNS announcements (which have to be reviewed by a nomad) and numerous press releases don't convince them of the facts, posters on a BB, such as you or I, wont stand a chance....and besides it should not be our job or focus.

Personally, the number of reasons I have to doubt the BOD, at such an early stage, (or deny what the company has so far announced) runs at precisely zero.

Thumbs up to the figures on our potential harvest. Here are a few more figures:

The number of users of prescribed medicinal cannabis in the UK ALONE is thought to be over 17,000. It saw a 425% increase in 2021. The average expense for a cannabis patient is £200 a month, with an 80% retention rate. The opioid issue in GB alone is one of the worst in Europe, with a high percentage of users with an addiction issue for a drug that no longer brings benefit.

The size of the market in Europe alone, for prescribed and unprescribed medicinal cannabis, is 23 billion euros.

The established and predicted growth rates for Germany alone (HELD's initial target market) are vast and published in the prospectus.

54k kg per annum will be HELD working to full capacity and after a period of phased expansion (which will take time) all of which they've been granted licenses for. If peeps want to try to bring some perspective to that figure, they should check out what the current ANNUAL (kg) demand for the WHOLE of Europe is. It will give some impression as to how big HELD COULD potentially become and how significant a player they COULD be. As RAI said, HELD's granted license is one of the largest awarded in Europe to date. Of course, it wont come immediately and there will be some fluctuation in prices over the years, but the potential economies of scale offered by their site and the competitive cost of production (for all the reasons we've discussed) mean that they stand of a good chance of remaining competitive where certain others might begin to struggle.

Another approach could be to completely detach yourself from HELD and imagine being another potential producer of, or investor in, another Western European cannabis firm.

The question:

Would HELD concern you?

I think you would find some legitimate reasons to be concerned:

Do they have cash? Yes.
Enough to secure initial sales? Yes.
Have they lined up or secured any customers? Apparently so, yes.
Are those initial deals believed to be of meaningful volume? Apparently so, yes.
Do they have the capacity to scale up and fulfil larger and larger contracts? Yes.
Do they have a license granted for that expansion? Yes.
Do they have access to more capital if needed? Potentially, yes.
Are their water costs cheaper than ours? Almost certainly.
What about their other energy costs? Almost certainly cheaper.
Is the regional climate generally more supportive to their aims, than ours? Very possibly.
Can they supply cheaper labour? Most probably.
Do they have any talent or anyone who has 'done it before' on their BOD? Yes. Several.

Even if the above DIDN'T concern you, you would at least think HELD has half a chance at becoming an established player in the space, and thus worth considerably more than it is at present.

Today saw the largest trading volume in the shares since around the time of the listing in December. But at 81M, it is still an incredibly very small figure.

As I suggested in an earlier post, IMO the shares have fallen due to a worked sell but I do not think it will be long till the demand side kicks in as the capitalisation reaches a level that the market can no longer ignore. The MM's job, although sometimes shrouded with mystery, sculduggery, smoke and mirrors, is ultimately to process orders from both sides, to 'make a market' (funnily enough) and to match supply and demand....and all whilst making a killing in the process.

IMO I do not believe the FALL in price, mainly due - it would seem - to Mr 10M (singular), is representative of the overall MARKET consensus of this very young company or indeed its future prospects. And so, on the info currently available, I will continue to monitor HELD and judge the present weakness as an opportunity, at least until anything emerges to suggest the contrary. Adding at certain points and being more concerned with the mkt cap I'm buying in at and less obsessed with where the floor of the share price might be.

I watched KNB for over a year before hitting the buy button.....but IMO I don't think HELD's depressed state will be as protracted at KNB's...mainly because HELD has launched into a flat space (soon to change imo) and is just so close to revenues. In contrast, KNB launched into a very heady space (the peak of the cannabis hype) but was, at that time, a long way off meaningful revenues (and has shown some hefty expenses in the meantime): all in all a recipe for a long 'hangover'. And I say that with no disrespect to KNB as I do not believe this is a situation where you have to rate one company over the other. It is simply a matter of timelines.

All imo as always. NAI. ADYOR and RYOC.

Posted at 02/2/2023 11:28 by oakridge
A bombed out share price? Getting there.

But a bombed out COMPANY? I don't think so.

The company is far too new to the market, for 'the market' (as a whole) to have made such an AMPHATIC call on its performance or indeed its prospects. There is money to be made for those who can separate a share price, from the future potential of a business.

On the face of it HELD has very good prospects. Not only is it cashed up but it is very close to securing first revenues from selling product into a market which is both underserved and rapidly growing. This is a good scenario. It also has facilities and a license already granted that will enable it to grow rapidly and compete on price and economies of scale.

The source of the 10M sells is responsible for the drop in price. But I do not believe they are representative of 'the market'. Indeed 'the market' is probably ready and willing to buy in to the story, and will become increasingly prepared to as the seller makes the investment proposition all the more attractive.

The slight increase in buying seen so far today illustrates this, as the lowly market cap becomes increasingly compelling from a buy perspective.

If the seller is ever exhausted there is the potential for a strong bounce at HELD and hopefully this will coincide with a run of good news from the company, including the confirmation of first revenues and a growing order book. The arrival of a buyer wishing to take up a meaningful position - on or off market - would also help and get the seller cleared.

I've added another tranche today utilising some of my KNB profits.....NOT because I think we've necessarily bottomed out, but because to do so here is, IMHO, to pick up stock at a very reasonable mkt cap; ultimately my overall position will be built from a number of purchases and it is volume acquired and the average price paid that matters.

Buying shares amid spells of great cynicism and/or fear has worked well for me. But in order to do that you have to believe in the longer term success of a business or at least think things will become a lot brighter for it, than they are at the time of purchase. HELD is just two very short months into its journey, is two months closer to revenues, has taken on proven staff and recently issued reassurances to the market.........yet is is valued more lowly than it ever has been.

The seller (singular) is responsible for the poor or doubtful sentiment here, not the company.

They are entirely different things.

If the seller ever clears these will move up and rapidly imho. However, in that scenario it will more than likely be much harder to get easy volume within the spread. We know from experience that will happen, as buy limits were always pulled very quickly, before the arrival of Mr 10M.

ADYOR etc and NAI

Posted at 20/1/2023 07:45 by sweet karolina2
sweet karolina223 Dec '22 - 09:13 - 69 of 78 Edit
0 2 5
Has HELD share price now found a floor for its share price or will it continue to tank in the New Year?

My first prediction of a crash on day 1 came true. Time will tell if my second prediction also comes true:

"I predict the bid price at close on the first day of HELD trading will be below 0.25p."

0.15p ouch!

"I further predict there will be a placing within 12 months of starting trading at less than 0.1p."

Well at least we know the answer to the opening question. No the share price has not found its floor as it has continued to tank in the New Year.

Happy, if not exactly prosperous, New Year to everyone with a view on HELD.

Posted at 20/1/2023 07:13 by judijudi
As I said talk of wanting a lower share price is utter shyte
All genuine holders want this at nearer 1p than 0.15p
The share price isn’t looking better and better for holders, it’s looking worse and worse
I hear it all the time
“Great top up opportunity”
I’m not bitter, I’m a realist
The graphs don’t lie or twist the facts
They havnt hit the ground running and neither has the share price
End of

Posted at 23/12/2022 09:13 by sweet karolina2
Has HELD share price now found a floor for its share price or will it continue to tank in the New Year?

My first prediction of a crash on day 1 came true. Time will tell if my second prediction also comes true:

"I predict the bid price at close on the first day of HELD trading will be below 0.25p."

0.15p ouch!

"I further predict there will be a placing within 12 months of starting trading at less than 0.1p."

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