Hellenic Dynamics Share Discussion Threads

[oakridge] 22/4/2023 00:17

CEL. Mkt Cap: £261M.
HELD. Mkt Cap: Approx £10M.

An unfair comparison?

Yes.

But not so unfair as to the tune of £251M.

Market perception to change (and gap to close) when HELD become cash generative. Signing further supply agreements into Europe should give us a better indication of growth prospects.

AIMHO.

[jasko] 21/4/2023 23:04

Great watch and very informative. Just reinforced why I've invested here. Thank you Oakridge for sharing.

[oakridge] 21/4/2023 20:01

Worth watching:

[oakridge] 20/4/2023 09:48

Thanks ashley. There's quite a bit out there if people get googling.

HELD have been quite busy on twitter too.

It will soon be the end of April. Year is racing by. Will be interesting to know how they are progressing in Greece. There are certainly some good people on board at HELD now.

Management to be visible in respect of taking up stock at these lows would be welcomed.

[boxerdogz] 19/4/2023 14:42

HellenicDynamics Linkedin

Info there

[oakridge] 19/4/2023 13:01

Fewer trades required it seems before quotes switch to full offer.

Already at 0.114 for just c. 350K shares. Offer @ 0.115.

Just an observation.

ADYOR

[oakridge] 19/4/2023 12:57

Volume building again. 40M before 1 o'clock.

Will the afternoon session see us back towards the 100M mark?

Maybe thoughts are that the source of the stock we've seen over past weeks is finally drying up. MM's will possibly know - especially if they've got wind of the entire order and will no doubt look to increase the price ahead of it finally being worked through.

Speculation only.

I'm unsure but there has been a definite shift in the trading patterns just recently.

[chica1] 19/4/2023 08:35

No Yohoho,Boxer has probably lost his shirt already and is in denial.
Oakridge probably doesn't even care if the price goes up or down, being a paid pundit he presumably got free shares anyway.

[oakridge] 18/4/2023 22:50

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[oakridge] 18/4/2023 22:47

:O) ashley.

55,000 kg capacity when fully expanded into P3 (one of the largest licenses granted in Europe).

Total area of site: 195,506 M2. 3.8km perimeter.
Water costs - zero - own water supply.
Skilled and semi-skilled labour costs - amongst the most competitive in Europe.
Electricity costs - c.0.06 euros KWHr.
48 miles to freight airport into all the main cities in Europe.
Term sheets already signed with distributors into primary market of Germany.
First sales anticipated late Q2.

As a new company there is some uncertainty as to operational competence and if the company will hit its first cultivation cycle and so generate revenues as envisaged. So the lion's share of the market continues to sit on its hands.

News over the coming months will tell us how they are progressing and, if positive and all to plan, I feel HELD will rerate from these lows. No 10M batches sold today so we might be witnessing the early stages of a meaningful recovery and back to the kind of levels seen at the listing.

NAI. ADYOR etc.

[ashleyjv] 18/4/2023 15:27

But the site doesn't exist, some bloke is growing 54tons of top grade herb from his shed in Clapham

[oakridge] 18/4/2023 13:42

ps I hope you haven't given up looking for the facility on google earth.

[oakridge] 18/4/2023 13:40

I think we've been 'here' before chica1. I'm sorry to see you're still somewhat infatuated with your entirely incorrect hypothesis. How you elevate me so! But I'm just an investor I'm afraid. If the ability to quickly create a list of bullet points from the recent RNS' and company prospectus qualifies me as paid promotor please tell me where to pick up the cheque. It would be good work if I could get it!

chica1 18 Apr '23 - 13:02 - 169 of 169
0 0 2
Be careful out there it's clear Oakridge is a paid promoter!

[chica1] 18/4/2023 13:02

Be careful out there it's clear Oakridge is a paid promoter!

[oakridge] 18/4/2023 12:07

Yes, that would be good to see for sure.

[felchandbart] 18/4/2023 12:03

What would be great now would be to see some directors buying more shares at these lowly levels. It would certainly instil a lot of confidence. Whether we get to hear of any such transactions over the coming days, who knows. But it would be great if we did!

[oakridge] 18/4/2023 12:03

Here's the summary. Could be useful for anyone new looking in. As ever, ADYOR and NAI etc. I am obviously long and have previously stated an anticipated initial c. 18 month hold with a reassessment after the first 12 months. We should know by then how serious the company is and whether they are likely to find traction.


* HELD have been granted one of the largest cultivation licenses in Europe.

* Based in a secure, ex UN facility in Northern Greece.

* Fully funded to first sales, anticipated in late Q2.

* Term sheets already signed with distributors into primary market of Germany.

* Germany with 300K existing patients (2020) with 70% of prescriptions covered by insurance.

* 10.7 tons of medicinal cannabis imports in 2018.

* 20.8 tons of medicinal cannabis imports in 2019.

* 31.5 tons of medicinal cannabis imports in 2020.

* Potential to sign other significant contracts into continental Europe.

* 25 Countries now on stream and open for medicinal cannabis prescription.

* European mkt anticipated to be worth 37 Billion Euros by 2027 (this is twice the size of
the Canadian and North American Markets, combined).

* UK is intended secondary market, with the potential to address the current opioid epidemic (540k patients
currently addicted to prescribed opioids). 26% of uk population suffering from chronic pain.

* Strategically located in Northern Greece to have one of the lowest cost of production anywhere in Europe
(labour, energy, climate all ideal + own water supply).

* 0.06 euros kn/h.

* 0.00 euros water.

* 48 miles from major freight airport to all main European sales destinations.

* The growing site has already received significant investment.

* Expansion to be phased in line with contracts and growing demand. Expansion intended to be
funded through sales.

* Total area of site: 195,506 M2. 3.8km perimeter.

* License and scalability of the site good to 54,000 kg dried flowers per annum.

* As a comparison, CEL's UK facility is, I *think*, good for circa 5000 kg, with the associated inflated
costs of UK energy / production / labour.

* 6 Expected cultivation cycles per annum.

* Intention / aspiration to penetrate UK market via the NHS and compete on quality and
price.

* Growing from clones to ensure product stability.

* Key staff appointed to the Development Team eg Carl Haffner (ex Avida Global). Proven
track record in achieving a large-scale medical cannabis cultivation and extraction
facility in Colombia achieving all necessary certifications including ISO, GACP & EU-GMP.

* We are Main Market, not AIM.

* Strong advisory board, with Hannah Deacon as a key, high-profile advocate.

......................................

* Memorandum of Understanding with ELGO-DIMITRA - Institute of Plant Breeding and Genetic Resources of Greece

* Appointment of Katherine Fleming to its Advisory Board. Katherine is currently the President and CEO of the J. Paul Getty Trust, the international cultural and philanthropic institution, overseeing its 1,500 employees and US$8.5 billion endowment fund.

[oakridge] 18/4/2023 11:56

Madmonkflyn. Regarding what you say about US suppliers.....I think there are other cultivation firms in Europe who should be a lot more concerned ahead of Hellenic.....And there is in fact an argument to suggest that those European cultivators should be concerned about Hellenic themselves finding traction in the market place. Strategically they look to be very well placed......however as per my above post / caveat, they have a lot to prove first.

Whilst it's somewhat unfair to make an exact comparison with CEL (as they are not a pure play cultivator) I do look at them, for instance, and how they are going to compete on price. They have ambitions to expand their limited growing facilities but have already had to stall on the one phase due to cost constrains in the UK.

If Hellenic DO progress as we'd like and with pace, I cannot see how, at present, CEL will be able to compete on price, given the cost of production in the UK.

I will repost a number of bullet points I previously made broadly around HELD's strategy shortly....

[oakridge] 18/4/2023 11:46

70M on the volume before 11.30. It's a definite departure and represents a clear shift in trading.

Almost certainly another >100M day in the making.

supercity...

Dare I ask it too.....but has the 10M seller finally been exhausted? It has to happen at some point. Although I'm far from certain, my gut feeling has always been that the source was old / legacy Mountfield or SPC holders, who are quite simply selling down an old and unrelated position and where they are in no way aligned or interested in the company post RTO.

This would make sense.

The significant shareholders list has some v.interesting names onboard. If them, they would have triggered a mandatory holdings RNS weeks, if not months ago.

So I think old nominee holders a la Mountfield and SPC.

I agree, when they are finally shot, the recovery back up to around the listing price could come very quickly.

We discussed this issue weeks ago and several on here agreed that without this recurrent seller, the buy volume and general interest around the stock would justify a circa 0.3p share price

Just my view only so ADYOR etc.

[georgeo1] 18/4/2023 11:44

If just 1 pharmaceutical company shows a remote interest into Hellenic, you could just imagine your highest expectations on just where this is going to go ok it's early days but be optimistic.

[madmonkflin] 18/4/2023 11:42

And I bought in at much higher levels.

[madmonkflin] 18/4/2023 11:42

Think of the competition, US imports etc - there's a lot out there - until they bag a contract with a government body it will move sideways at this level.

[oakridge] 18/4/2023 11:38

IMHO, on what has been set out in the prospectus and since been RNS'd, the stock is still extremely cheap imho.

The next few updates will, I hope, tell just HOW cheap and we can all begin to get a handle on how to value this company and its prospects.

As I have said in the past, what we're really looking for at this stage is operational competence....ie implementing and delivering on what, on the face of it, looks like a highly promising proposition in Greece.

If they can show that they are broadly on target to deliver on their first off take agreement (and so begin delivering cash, as they've previously set out) it should be of great reassurance to the market and finally we can begin to value the business. Further supply agreements (if they can secure them) will then become 'tangible'.

We also have GMP and certification to go through which, much like CEL, should represent further milestone and drivers for the price.

AIMO and NAI etc