Hellenic Dynamics Share Discussion Threads

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 16:21

Welcome courty2.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 16:21

That's fair enough James. Good luck.

[jameshendrix2023] 14/3/2023 16:20

Word is getting out now

[jameshendrix2023] 14/3/2023 16:19

If i could i would but only trading at the moment. No long term holds for me.

[courty2] 14/3/2023 16:19

God took ages to buy ,had to do fill or kill in the end GLA

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 16:18

James you may be here for a quick trade but HELD needs to be HELD.

Lock them away for 12 - 24 months and if they can prove they are operationally competent the rewards COULD be considerable.

As for CEL, if I was on the BOD I would be arranging a fundraise.

UK labour. UK water. And UK energy isn't going to be cheap.

HELD's facility in northern Greece should prove strategically superior on the cost perspective....with just about the lowest cost of labour, water and energy in Europe.

Further, their cultivation license is enormous (one of the largest ever granted in Europe) and runs to a staggering 54,000 kg of dried flower a year, when fully maxed out in P3.

Compare that to CEL's facility. I will check tonight but I think they are good for something like 5000kg a year.

ADYOR.

[jameshendrix2023] 14/3/2023 16:07

Octp done over 100% in 1 weekCel has done over 150% in 3 days before the news landedKnb did 200% the other month on no newsHeld the next one to do 100/200%

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 15:58

All being well, there is more than 200% to be had here imo James.

If the company can prove it is operationally competent, the shares have real potential over the next 12 - 24 months.

I've discussed at length on this thread.

Nearer term price accretive 'events' for HELD could be:

1) the potential for them to sign further sizeable contracts in continental Europe
2) confirmation of cash generation in c.late Q2
3) clinical trial data in the UK and its implications for regulatory movement / acceptance within the NHS.

AIMO ADYOR

[jameshendrix2023] 14/3/2023 15:53

Ive seenCbx flyCel flyOctp flyKnb flyWhen will held do its 200%

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 15:49

Money inbound at HELD and about time.

Looks as though we might hit that 100M today after all.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 15:49

Put it this way.

I wouldn't sell HELD to buy CEL.

But, given the present valuations, I WOULD consider selling CEL to buy HELD.

Further, CEL would be stupid not to raise funds imminently given the recent spike.

UK labour, UK Energy and UK Water isn't going to be cheap.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 15:20

News out at CEL.

Great news for the cannabis space.

What we can say is that CEL, or, those involved in the work around this RNS = a leaky ship! Including that big volume spike / buy a few weeks ago. Naughty!

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 14:12

Glad we haven't released any +ive news in recent sessions as the mkt has been very poor. That said, CEL and OCTP continue on decent runs.

Was hoping to see 100M volume here today. Could still happen.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 14:10

Any more buying and I suggest we'll move up again imo.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 14:10

Well dummy buys suggest everything appears to be at full ask now 0.095, even for small volume.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 13:04

Over 15M purchased in the last hour.

[everton448] 14/3/2023 12:50

Just bought some at 0.0921 so many of what are shown as sells are in fact buys

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 12:47

Impressive volume building here today.....not far off second highest volume since we first launched.

Obtain dummy quotes to determine the real spread.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 09:30

From the CEL thread:

czar13 Mar '23 - 14:07 - 9 of 10
0 0 0
Its good to see an unloved stock up again in a weak market but I can't find any explanation for the strong move. CEL is still well under the placing price of 165p. Something is attracting buyers. GW Pharma is the only direct comparison and they got bought for £7.2b a couple of years ago. CEL mentioned they hope to get Home Office approval this quarter so that may be it or could it be a US bidder? Either way this is still a strong BUY IMHO with a low ball target of £10 a share in my book.

Anyone heard anything?
Oakridge14 Mar '23 - 09:05 - 10 of 10 Edit
0 0 0
The rise has been on fairly light volume czar....but then CEL has relatively few shares in issue. There could be any number of reasons why this has rallied recently. Several other cannabis stocks are coming off oversold lows (they all faced a woeful 2022 - a 'hangover' if you like - after all the initial (and slightly premature) enthusiasm of the sector in the previous year(s).

Re. CEL specifically, there could be upcoming clinical findings to report, expansion to their license, or perhaps another raise on the way (check their cash balance and burn rates).

Hellenic Dynamics (HELD) will be moving up at some point imho. As a wholesaler to licensed distributors, they have already signed term sheets into the German market with first sales anticipated in late Q2. Unlike CEL and other UK firms such as Ananda, HELD's license is to grow for the purposes of full commercial sales....not just research. It also has amongst the largest license ever granted in Europe.....growing out of an ex UN facility in Northern Greece, with a compelling cost-base.

They have taken on ex Avida Global staff.....who have done it all before in latin America.

It's a company to watch in 2023 - 2024 imo.

NAI and ADYOR.

[oakridge] 14/3/2023 09:27

Tentative buying continues here today.

Good to see other cannabis stocks lifting off the 2022 lows.

CEL and now OCTP picking themselves off the floor at present.

As I've said, 2023 should be the year that we see meaningful events and movement within the space.....and I expect to see a rising tide lifting all boats.

Clinical findings. Regulatory framework. Patient access. Sales channels.

[oakridge] 12/3/2023 22:58

No problem....but caveat emptor, as always, is to DYOR etc as stated.

Re. shares in issue: Ananda have a fair few in issue themselves. CEL, v.few.

HELD have had a seller in the market which has been discussed in recent times, and without this, the shares would almost certainly be trading at a multiple of where they currently are. This situation could however be providing an opportunity in the meantime before the company advances and proves up the business case and starts producing cash and signing further off-take agreements.

The company is currently very busy putting the plans in place for anticipated first harvest in late Q2: which is now not that far away at all.

If that occurs, on time, it would be good to see some significant buying in the market and people taking up meaningful positions. As ever, it is about being ahead of the various events. Take CEL or KNB for instance. Flatlining and out of favour. Too boring for most. And now, after the uplift, who isn't wishing they had loaded up?

I'm expecting to see numerous price accretive events - at various cannabis companies - over the coming months. Some will be of sector importance/significance, so let's hope a good bit of it rubs off on HELD.

It's going to be an interesting / bracing week in the mkts more generally what with the news coming out of the US banking.....so there could be some good buy opportunities on the horizon.

AIMO ADYOR etc

[kubera369] 12/3/2023 21:23

Oakridge thank you ever so much for taking your time out to look into ANA and Hellenic They both do look really good.What puts me a wee off is the amount of shares in circulation here ?I will keep it on my watch list and will be monitoring with keen interest.Cannot believe I missed out on CEL as a poster did mention it on the LSE ANA thread.Thank you once again:)

[oakridge] 12/3/2023 17:49

Sorry for the delay in replying Kubera369, I've been travelling and my feet are only just back under the desk.

Ananda, yes I know a little about them but I'm not currently invested there.

There are similarities in the business model to that of CEL I believe and they seem to be on a very similar journey. They are effectively R&D companies at present, the scope of their licenses mainly granted for growing/cropping for the purposes of R&D work into a couple of select clinical trials, genetic research / stability, seed banking, extraction practices, quality control and so on.

THBOMK both companies need an update to their existing licenses in order to become commercial in the sense of selling product to existing distributors or to extract and manufacture their own finished product ready for market.

Those updates will come however, I'm sure, and for both businesses (and others within the space) I anticipate a number of key price accretive events over the coming 12 - 24 months. Some of these will be company specific (events occurring WITHIN the company, for example the expansion of said licenses, the results of clinical trials, commercial ventures etc) and other events will be more sector-wide.

It's a big and valuable space and, crucially, one that is growing at a rapid pace. So I see good news occurring within any one business to be relevant to others - including the likes of HELD.

IMO we need to look for movement around two key areas: 1) the regulatory framework and expanding patient access and 2) the key findings of clinical trials. Positive updates on either or both should light up the space as a whole. This is why I don't at all begrudge those co's I'm not invested in from doing well. What we need to see is the space open up.

Ananda are proposing to grow commercially in the UK and have aspirations of being a sizeable outfit (I think* but need to check that they plan to outsource this to a couple of established agricultural companies, as apposed to having wholly owned/managed facilities). That's a good aspiration but they will of course have the UK's cost base to negotiate (electricity/energy, water, labour). It isn't going to be cheap for them. You only have to look at CEL's delayed expansion into their PII growing room (due to spiralling costs in the UK) to see that cost of production in the UK is going to be a key theme. I still however like the look of both companies and of course will follow them, and others in the space.

HELD's granted licenses are fully commercial in that will be growing from established clones and selling whole flower (bud) direct to existing, regulated and licensed distributors. Their term sheets into the more mature German market are evidence of this and I anticipate they will sign other sizeable contracts in 2023. HELD's strategy of serving the German and other continental European countries FIRST, and then, in time, looking to penetrate the UK is sound imo. The UK is the UK and whilst it would be fantastic to say we are supplying the NHS, just look at how this country is being run at present.....we are in 'limp mode' with an utterly incompetent administration. So I would not want to be hanging my coat on the NHS this year, but if it happens all well and good. The German market is slightly further down the road and, as with other countries in Europe, already underserved it would seem.

On the information available I still think the value proposition of growing out of Greece looks compelling and of course the size of HELD's license and outright scalability of their facility is, in comparison to what UK-based cultivators have, on a scale all of its own.

AIMO. NAI and ADYOR etc