Helical Share Discussion Threads

[essentialinvestor] 09/6/2019 06:28

It may be a very nice Monday.

[apollocreed1] 06/6/2019 13:13

I think this company has the best quality office space in London and Manchester so should hold up pretty well. There's no retail property so nothing to worry about really.

[cordwainer] 06/6/2019 12:40

I'm just in @ £3.5476.
Been watching for quite a while.
Tempted as long ago as March 2018 but now the discount to NTAV is better, the gearing is less and the yield is higher.
And the London - Manchester strategy seems to be doing ok. Even if some parts of London go south, having sites near to Crossrail should be supportive (if Crossrail ever gets opened that is). Also like the comments in the results / update about Manchester's population growth.
- Finger's crossed.

[apollocreed1] 22/3/2019 14:30

Any idea why this has fallen so much over the last week?

[essentialinvestor] 31/10/2018 11:19

Everytime this looks like breaking down to a lower trading range, it bounces
back.

[essentialinvestor] 15/10/2018 12:49

Under 2.90, worth a look, just my best guess.
May not get there.

[essentialinvestor] 13/10/2018 12:30

Helical is a play on London commercial, Manchester still very small.
Brexit talks now entering their crunch point.
Interesting to see if dispose of any further London properties.

[essentialinvestor] 12/10/2018 13:01

A friend of my Dad's retired at a young age by heavily backing HLCL in the early
90's. He subsequently died an early death from his fondness for champagne.
But I'm sure he had lots of fun in the interim.

Compare how HLCL navigated the financial crisis in comparison to LAND/BLND.

Note the exits from industrial and retail here.

[strathroyal] 12/10/2018 12:56

Yes, a bit surprised by the downward movement even allowing for the recent stock market trend. The sale of The Shepherd Building, along with the sale of the remaining non core assets earlier this year should add another 10p or more to NAV.

Also the £120M odd should enable them to reduce overall debt (perhaps redeem the 2019 Convertible) so they seem well positioned to weather any downturn or buy distressed assets from other property cos.

[essentialinvestor] 12/10/2018 11:22

Are we moving in to a lower trading range.

3.20 had provided support on a number of occasions.

[essentialinvestor] 18/9/2018 10:49

More than offset by the latest asset sale on a LTV basis?.

[cordwainer] 11/9/2018 16:37

some dollar-denominated debt, hmm.

[badtime] 06/8/2018 11:36

Ta for reply and with you all the way

[essentialinvestor] 05/8/2018 10:33

Hi bt, not atm. it's worth watching HLCL as
their management team is so astute- for a read on
the wider sector. If you look at Derwent or GPOR, they are both
near single figure LTV on gearing, I've never seen this amount
of caution before. HLCL still around 40%, but would not surprise
me to see it come back further. Think we may be in for an interesting
year or two.

[badtime] 03/8/2018 14:19

Are you holding EI?

[essentialinvestor] 31/7/2018 12:23

Given the rapid rate at which HLCL are degearing, my guess is they
see a less supportive macro environment ahead.

What caught my attention was their call on selling out of industrial units.

Mentioned previously I would expect an increased focus on Manchester.

[cordwainer] 19/7/2018 16:56

On Trustnet today:- Rogier Quirijns, portfolio manager of the Cohen & Steers European Real Estate Securities fund, says:

"Leave: Central London offices

The London office market has been fueled by significant new supply entering the market over the last few years. However, we expect demand for these properties to slide as the Brexit process unfolds over the next 12-24 months.

We have already seen several companies announce staff moves away from London since the 2016 vote. Meanwhile, rents in prime areas such as Mayfair and the City of London remain at relatively high levels, which is encouraging new supply to come to market, further exacerbating the precarious supply/demand dynamic.

The market has held up better than we expected post-Brexit vote – but a large portion of the demand in the City has been driven by co-working office providers, particularly WeWork, rapidly taking up leases as the demand for shared offices has grown. WeWork takes long-term leases on large offices, in a similar vein to the traditional model for big businesses, before fitting these out and effectively subletting them to its members. As a result, it is locked into current market rents for the long term. Similar tenancy models have suffered when the market softened – and we believe this won’t be any different. As such, we believe it is warranted to remain extremely cautious on London offices."

see whole article here: www.trustnet.com/news/824814/the-real-estate-sectors-to-leave-and-remain-amid-brexit-uncertainty

[edwardt] 13/7/2018 14:53

back on a 27% discount with a much improved balance sheet. i have picked some more up.

[cordwainer] 06/4/2018 15:44

Also noting slowness of getting tenants for Manchester portfolio, significant gearing, Carillion-related delay at Bart's Square.

Probably should trade below NAV for now, as for 35% - would normally seem a bit steep so I guess the market is expecting a correction in office real estate prices going forward.

Strangely oscillating price actions.
But Farringdon East seems like the bees knees. Tempting.

[cordwainer] 05/4/2018 14:50

Noting that £100m bonds get converted next year.

[edwardt] 07/3/2018 16:19

roll it into the equity chaps - on 35% discount with a management that seems to be selling everything they own!

[speedsgh] 06/3/2018 13:46

Good to hear, badtime :o)

[badtime] 06/3/2018 13:37

Chased and one received