Harland & Wolff Share Discussion Threads

[millennialinvestor] 13/3/2024 09:24

JakNife delivering multiple blows relentlessly to HARL longs is never a good sign for a share.

A - F. of FACTS.

I have heard legends of how how JakNife did such things on the CINE thread. No mercy was shown, werethereisawill vaporised much like his/her CINE portfolio.

Pure destruction and devastation. I can see history repeating itself here.

Ye be warned!

[jaknife] 12/3/2024 17:14

"The profit from UKEF goes to the treasury but the money it has does not come from the UK taxpayer."

So where do you think that UKEF's equity, which is labelled in the accounts as "Taxpayers’ Equity" came from? Who do you think that it belongs to?

JakNife

[linesal2] 12/3/2024 16:30

The debt they have is from upgrading the plants and getting the workers in, now the contracts are rolling in. a £200m loan would be safe. and we will soon see.
The profit from UKEF goes to the treasury but the money it has does not come from the UK taxpayer.

[loglorry1] 12/3/2024 15:37

So you can't provide a good reference then? Thought not because there isn't one.

[linesal2] 12/3/2024 15:26

Log, You need to do a bit more research, or would the truth not be of any use for your posts.

[loglorry1] 12/3/2024 13:07

"the ministers have already agreed the £200m gaurantee"

Where do you see that stated? The minister has agreed to continue negotiations with UKEF on a 100% guarantee basis. I have seen no where that HMG has agreed the guarantee. UKEF is owned by the tax payer of course it is affected if they loose money on bad loans.

[millennialinvestor] 12/3/2024 11:25

Thanks JakNife

[loglorry1] 12/3/2024 10:28

Before someone points out that the Riverstone loan is secured on all of HARLS assets so it's not possible to subordinate them. The answer to that is that new money trumps old. Riverstone don't want to take HARLs assets because they don't have anything of any value and if they did take them, then equity would be wiped out regardless.

EDIT: to be clear nobody can subordinate Riverstone's loan without their agreement.

[jaknife] 12/3/2024 09:57

millennialinvestor,

"JakNife would you say the financial situation here is similar to that of Cineworld?"

It's certainly on a par with Cineworld. Cineworld needed a material debt for equity swap in order to free itself from the burden of the excessive debt that it had. There was no sensible scenario under which Cineworld could ever have repaid its debt. But CINE completely wiped out existing shareholders to achieve that and a "New Cineworld" was created where only the former lenders were shareholders.

HARL needs a debt for equity swap as well. There's no hope that it might generate the profits/cash to repay the debt and instead management intend to replace the debt burden with an even greater debt burden that HARL still won't be able to repay. That doesn't make sense, what HARL really needs is a debt for equity swap to remove the burden of its excessive debt.

However, I can't imagine a scenario where Riverstone would want to completely eliminate existing shareholders and remove HARL from the UK market in the same manner that CINE did.

JakNife

[loglorry1] 12/3/2024 09:45

I think it's quite a binary situation. Clearly HARL are in an absolute hole with more losses to fund and no way to repay Riverstone. The flip side of this is that its been reported that JW has talked some minister into recommending that the UK tax payer bails them out. Unfortunately, the method to do this relies on UKEF who categorically can't do that under their own mandate. If they were to do that then its just transferring cash from UK tax payers to US lenders and equity holders via an unprecedented bailout..

It may still happen obviously and you have to take your own view but there would be an almighty political stink. I suppose ministers and HARL would argue that national security and preserving jobs trumps these things.

If HMG were smart they'd leave the Riverstone facility where it is. Put new money in senior to them and take all the equity value and own the company too. It's not like HARL or Riverstone have any choice if that was presented to them. JW doesn't care he still gets paid a fat cheque.

[millennialinvestor] 12/3/2024 09:37

JakNife would you say the financial situation here is similar to that of Cineworld?

[mirabeau] 11/3/2024 21:49

apologies

>

[jaknife] 11/3/2024 21:31

linesal2,

"Jak, you did state some time back that Harl would wait till the last minute to pay off riverside and it looks like you got that one right."

I can't imagine that that's what I wrote. I might have written that HARL will leave it right to the last minute before they admit that they *can't* pay off Riverstone?!

JakNife

[linesal2] 11/3/2024 21:29

Jak, you did state some time back that Harl would wait till the last minute to pay off riverside and it looks like you got that one right.

[jaknife] 11/3/2024 21:20

Isn't it interesting that two equally intelligent, erudite individuals can read the same news article and yet arrive at completely different conclusions?

As before, we await official formal written RNSs as newspaper articles and/or oral presentations from the CEO aren't completely reliable!

JakNife

[linesal2] 11/3/2024 21:20

What was note worthy, was it being the labour party apposing again! If they do win the election they are going to have a major struggle to get anything through,they will probably propose to take the rubber boats off the illegal immigrants and give them to the Navy claiming they rebuilt the fleet.

[linesal2] 11/3/2024 21:04

Exactly so the financing is a virtual done deal! with no warrants and less than half the interest rate. One of Sunaks better moves IMHO.
get ready to Bail Jak and log!

[ijamlon] 11/3/2024 19:33

Damning Times article today. How is the CEO still the CEO? It's a total shipwreck.

[millennialinvestor] 11/3/2024 09:38

Guys don't worry about the $2m a month interest, they have secured a £3m contract! lol

[owenski] 11/3/2024 08:32

Bit of a reality check, they certainly don't cover the interest bill out of profit being as they don't make a profit and still burn cash.

The deluded rampers never like financial facts do they.

[loglorry1] 11/3/2024 07:45

$22m in interest per year alone. Nearly $2m a month. Total mess.

Once Steve Jobs rises from his grave to save them they'll be fine.