Hargreaves Lansdown Share Discussion Threads

[growthpotential] 17/2/2021 08:27

Will not sell any more shares for 90 days. How very generous of him

[ochs] 17/2/2021 08:14

Exactly the same happened with Dunelm a few days ago... big fall on morning that the placing was completed.

[growthpotential] 16/2/2021 20:34

Can this old fart stop dumping his shares

[imastu pidgitaswell] 16/2/2021 17:04

Mmmm - not currently in, thankfully.

These regular placings are increasing in frequency, it feels.

They might well complete it before the market opens tomorrow - Taylor Wimpey did that last Summer. But then the share price got absolutely hammered, as if in punishment, way out of whack with their peers, for 3 months afterwards. It was a hell of a buy at the bottom though - I wonder...

[lomax99] 16/2/2021 16:50

Inevitable placing of £300m by PH, who promises not to sell any more within the next 90 days. Over to SL then, assuming the price holds up......

[growthpotential] 09/2/2021 23:07

these small compensations will add up over time

[porsche1945] 09/2/2021 10:00

Will get back in on these at about 1540, trading stock range bound, twitchy about being in these at higher price, when/if investigation/law suit started over Woodford will be a drip drip negative for a long time, plus if the likes of RH come to UK these are down 400 points overnight. I have to say their website a bit sxxt these days, not even volume indicators, same idiots running their hopeless U.K. facing dross funds, overhang from owners wishing they had got out at 24, dont really get the mad enthusiasm for HL, decent trading stock tho.

[lomax99] 09/2/2021 08:59

HL goes XD on Friday.

[bunz3] 09/2/2021 08:36

Slightly red start ,gdr buyers pushing share price up there as getting closer to Mid February

[growthpotential] 04/2/2021 20:58

I still can't get over dampier selling his shares at 2400 the day before the Woodford news came out...

[growthpotential] 02/2/2021 22:21

I agree, HL is my second largest holding and looking forward to excellent future compound growth along with multiple expansion once the market appreciates the stock more

[micha14] 02/2/2021 16:27

CFO- "The PBT today is the same as sales just 4 years ago". So you got that at an average market multiple of 23. A BARGAIN

[micha14] 02/2/2021 16:25

There is no picnic, but there is a 12pc compunder in the next 5 years.
HOW is it overvalued when the multiplier is the SAME as snp500 YET the company is higher quality on all parameters???
The fact that billionaire owners sell shares is meaningless, they are in their 70s!! What are they going to do with them? take them to the grave or play while they can still?
Regarding trading for free sites competitors. Not concerning because a) growth often comes from exisiting customers b) HL continues to gain market share 40-42.5pc of D2C market c)more importanly, when it comes to money, people want first and foremost safety, to know they can take the money back OUT if they want it/need it, so they WILL go with the trusted and proven market leader, even if it costs a bit more but gives them piece of mind. Flyby nights like e toro will not displace hagreaves

[lomax99] 02/2/2021 09:34

We can all aspire to AJB's forward PE of c. 45, if you think HL. is expensive......

[imastu pidgitaswell] 02/2/2021 09:05

Not currently holding, but I don't know where they get 30 times forward earnings from?

Plainly wrong, from yesterday's half year numbers - last full year was 65.9p, and the half year to 31 December was 32.1p, up from 29.3p.

This year's earnings will be something like 68-70p. Multiple of around 24. Big difference, c25%.

It's the FT Lex column, ffs...

[lomax99] 02/2/2021 08:54

imo not over valued at all.

FT Lex:

Hargreaves Lansdown: platform game

Investment platform Hargreaves Lansdown attracted a record 84,000 new clients in the second half of 2020, with an average age of 37. Over three-fifths of its clients are now under 55, up from just over half in 2015. Their share of assets under management has not grown so fast.

Hargreaves Lansdown, launched in 1981, has reached middle age. The financial services company has no fashionable credentials to appeal to the online warriors piling into heavily shorted stocks.
Even so, it has been boosted by a rush of younger investors on to its platform. They helped push up its pre-tax profits for the six months to December by a tenth.

Recent conditions have been exceptional and investors, reasonably, are not getting carried away. Although the results were better than expected, its shares edged down 3 per cent. They are priced at 30 times forward earnings, in line with their 10 year average.

With a record 84,000 new clients, the average age of new joiners has dropped to 37 – from 45 in 2012. For many, it might be just a lockdown fad. But Hargreaves maintains that the behaviour of its coronavirus-era clients is little different to the rest. Younger people are becoming more focused on managing their financial futures.

Newbie investors are always advised to keep costs down. Hargreaves is far from the cheapest. Indeed, online investment service Interactive Investor claims the average ISA investor can save £30,000 in cost over 30 years by switching to it from Hargreaves.

There must be a risk that Hargreaves’ juicy operating profit margins come under pressure. It has been forced to lower the annual management charge on some of its funds. But the client retention rate remains high, at about 93 per cent, despite complaints over its cheerleading of the doomed Woodford Equity Income Fund.

It is a hassle changing investment platforms and customers appear happy with the services and investment options they receive.

Hargreaves is a steady prospect when judged by its hefty share – 42.5 per cent – of the direct-to-
consumer fund market. But rock bottom interest rates are encouraging people to move money out of cash into other investment products. It has just 5 per cent of a £2.4tn savings market.

Judged by that yardstick, it has plenty of room to grow.

[andrewhbruce] 02/2/2021 08:13

Family Co maybe, but they are sellers of millions of shares. There maybe lockdown newbies, but they will flock to the no fee sites, which are heading our way big time.
Long and short, no pun intended, HL way over valued and that’s before the bears arrive. No picnic here.

[micha14] 01/2/2021 22:51

@lomax99- the increased marketing spend are an investment in their continued growth!

[micha14] 01/2/2021 22:47

The bears are missing the crucial points- HL is gaining market share in a growing market at a double digit clip. crucially, the increased share dealing volumes is here TO STAY+ the average investor is younger so HL has them for longer, growth often comes from existing investors too. brilliant company, fabulous family management, growth, fantastic returns, most profitable family owned biz in Europe. What about valuation?? 7750m market cap. So if we assume 10pc growth from 2020 to 2021 (and profits grew 10pc in first half of the year) we arrive to 288x 1.1= 316m. Net cash position of 390m. So (7750-390)/316= 23 MULTIPLE. 23 MULTIPLE. THE SNP500 IS currently trading on 23, but this company is so muhc more quality than the snp500 due to- growth, returns, management, margins, assett light biz model. CONCLUSION- AT 1631P THE COMPANY IS UNDERVALUED, mainly because its UK based.

[andrewhbruce] 01/2/2021 16:32

Do the newbies not see the bears are coming! Sadly not. They create the final boom and then they are left with the bust. Who thought up this drivel - have money - engaging with saving - put money to work - grow wealth ( Woodford !) lifetime value opportunity.

[sphere25] 01/2/2021 15:19

Interesting snippet on market dynamics (and clearly getting even younger on back of recent events now):

"In turn, this change in behaviour is leading to a dynamic shift in the broader investment and wealth market. Younger people are taking a greater interest in investing for the future, recording an increased appetite for investment, and prioritising financial resilience and saving. In 2012, 46% of clients were aged between 55 and 80. That proportion is now 34%. Since 2012, we have seen the average age of new clients decrease from 45 to 37. This was reflected in the first half of this year where 47% of clients joining were in the 30-54 age bracket. Clients in this segment have money, are engaging with saving for the future and want help to put their money to work. By getting clients onto the platform earlier, we are able to support them for longer as they grow their wealth over time, and this enhances the lifetime value opportunity."

[dickiehh] 01/2/2021 14:02

Weird price movements in this stock. Great results, lots of trading likely this year, competition like RH getting burned, and then it goes down 6 percent!! My bet is on another big sale by one of the owners AGAIN ... I guess we will see when the market closes tonight

[lomax99] 01/2/2021 13:57

IC Comment:

No slowdown for Hargreaves Lansdown
Despite a tepid reaction to its half-year numbers, the DIY investment platform remains bullish

air value for Hargreaves Lansdown (HL.) sits at 1,705p per share, according to a FactSet survey of analysts’ average 12-month target prices. Investor selling dragged Hargreaves’ market value back beneath this level on the publication of interim figures that beat consensus profit forecasts and detailed a stonking 40 per cent surge in net client flows to £3.24bn in the six months to December.

By the sound of it, the DIY investment platform provider has lost little of that momentum since the period end.

“Trading in January has been similar to other lockdown periods with strong dealing volumes, significant client engagement and robust net new business and net new client numbers,” said chief executive Chris Hill. After the necessary lip service to market uncertainty came assurances of his company’s “ability to continue to help more clients to save and invest”, including in the crucial run-up to the end of the UK tax year.

Of course, one-year target prices or the prospects for a bumper 2021 ISA season are insufficient indicators of long-term earnings growth, which as the FTSE 100 constituent points out is posited on the “structural growth opportunity” in UK savings and investments.

Still, several factors might explain the long face that greeted these numbers. While client retention levels – arguably the group’s greatest asset – remained encouragingly high at 92.9 per cent, marketing and distribution costs climbed 75 per cent to £10.5m, implying stiffer competition and higher client acquisition costs.

This was part of a 27 per cent rise in overheads across the group, though a profit margin in excess of 60 per cent isn’t going to cost shareholders much sleep. Neither is the dividend, so long as it is covered by operating cash flows almost three times over. The more that is held back now raises the chances of specials in the future.

Margins also remain chunky. The revenue to assets ratio tracked the FY2020 performance, though lower interest rates meant net income ‘earned’ on client cash dropped 29 per cent to £32.8m. Revenue here is expected to dip to between 34 and 40 basis points for the 12 months to June, down from 74 in the prior year. If not dead, then the golden goose is ailing.

FactSet-compiled consensus forecasts are for adjusted earnings of 57p per share for the year to June, and 54p in FY2022 – a plateauing that stems partly from fears of frothy asset valuations. This suggests upgrades are most likely to come from better-than-expected client inflows, which remain hard to predict.

However, Hargreaves’ business model has held up admirably during its most testing period yet. The shares, which are much cheaper than smaller rival AJ Bell (AJB) will likely face pressure this year, but should be on every UK investor’s long-term watch list. Hold.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 01/2/2021 13:42

I think a lot of shorts were closed in the preceding couple of weeks, and that accelerated after the first sniffs of the Reddit/Robin Hood/GME thing.

Looks like either they're going back on, or profit takers are driving it today.

Getting interested if this keeps up.