Hargreaves Lansdown Share Discussion Threads

[ochs] 27/9/2022 15:09

The prospect of 5.5% interest rates in the UK has certainly given HL shares a boost in recent days. We're now back to the price we were before xd, despite the falling markets. How much higher can we go?

[privileged] 22/9/2022 15:48

It's still up a net +20p in last 2 days given market falls that's OK. Interest rates will help again, energy price fixes will mean people won't be stopping pension contributions or withdrawing funds in my opinion so still net inflows with higher margins. Still feels historically very cheap at £8 something and should be a double digit share price. But historically it was valued too highly of course.

[lomax99] 22/9/2022 12:05

Another 0.5% base rate increase, every little helps...

[ochs] 22/9/2022 11:54

Down as expected, although 49p means that market movements are accounting for quite a bit as technically it should only be 27.44p.

Could we see the shares drift lower for the next few months?

Will the interest rate rise due to be announced at 12 noon help?

[privileged] 21/9/2022 18:16

I'd imagine so :) topped up a lot yesterday

[ochs] 21/9/2022 15:51

Nice rise, I'm guessing a mixture of shorts closing and long term holders getting in before xd at 4:30 tonight.

[lomax99] 21/9/2022 09:08

XD tomorrow, 27.44p.

[action] 15/9/2022 12:19

Site down. Call them to deal

[par555] 15/9/2022 12:18

jj,

Seems like it. Can get in but not able to place on-line deals

[jubberjim] 15/9/2022 12:08

Is it just me or has this pile of doodaa. Of a companies website crashed again ?

Trying to buy Vodafone can't gain access

Pile of ????

[imastu pidgitaswell] 08/9/2022 15:28

And that's what makes a market - some are buyers and some are sellers. Millions thinking like you, millions thinking like me.

The point being that there has been an unprecedented avalanche of selling over the past 6 months, which has largely dried up in July, and presumably August.

The question is whether net selling will restart at current reduced prices - many businesses trading at 50% or more less than they were, with UK quoted companies in particular looking even cheaper to US companies with the FX rate. Such as this one. Some trading at net cash levels.

Note in particular that paragraph in the article above: "The investment industry usually enjoys strong inflows, attracting an average of £27 billion of net new business every year in the ten years to 2021. But the inflows have reversed sharply, amounting to more than £11 billion of net outflows so far this year."

Why the withdrawals? Both choice and necessity. But remember the net new business each year is largely savings and pensions - every month a few billion is invested by pension funds and insurers, deducted from payroll, and therefore not price to being stopped. Certainly there may be less saving into pensions for some - but equally for the well off there may well be a lot more, given the attractiveness of prices and the risks to tax relief.

There is no way to be sure, and one's own experience is not reflective of the market as a whole - it's all about the net effect. If the unusual selling dries up, things will change quickly in terms of market pricing, and the July figures suggest - only suggest mind - that things might be changing.

Basically, follow the money.

[ochs] 08/9/2022 15:22

Petrol in the UK is down @SpectoAcc - now the lowest it's been for about 5 months, and the global oil price is actually lower than before Russia invaded, so it's not all bad news.

[spectoacc] 08/9/2022 14:42

Interest rates up (and again in a week), bills up (even with Trussenomics, fuel bills significantly higher than last year), petrol up, prices up (inflation c.10%).

I just don't see that as a market that gets a flood of money invested into it. I see the opposite - people selling investments to fund everyday saving, and eg contributing less to their pensions.

So when you see largescale withdrawals, is that sentiment or necessity?

Having said that, the markets will find a floor - but on utility bills alone, surely most co's are due to p/w first.

[ochs] 07/9/2022 11:34

Then again remember June was the recent bottom of the market and July saw the markets rebound generally. Retail investors usually sell at or near the bottom!

End of August and early September seem to be another down month so far.

Also interesting that institutions were pulling money out even in July.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 07/9/2022 11:11

Not currently holding, but seeing some signs (no confirmation - that will be after the fact) of a bottom - maybe not in HL. which has some big issues imho, but across the wider market.

Stuff like this (see article below) matters - there has been a large withdrawal of fund since February by investors and therefore a liquidity crunch. That level of net withdrawal of funds is unprecedented in recent times. The millions that wanted to sell will generally have done so, at prices far higher than current ones - and if selling dries up, then...:




The flood of retail investors pulling money out of funds slowed to a trickle in July, according to the latest industry-wide figures.

Net sales of funds, defined as sales minus redemptions, measured a negative £129 million for the month, compared with a negative £4.5 billion in June. Falls in equity and bond markets have dampened the appetite to invest, with retail investors pulling money out in every month except April, which is the key month for Isa activity.

Chris Cummings, chief executive of the Investment Association, which compiles the figures, said that “the significant outflows we saw in June softened in July”, partly because of new sales of bond funds.

The investment industry usually enjoys strong inflows, attracting an average of £27 billion of net new business every year in the ten years to 2021. But the inflows have reversed sharply, amounting to more than £11 billion of net outflows so far this year.

The squeeze on the cost of living also has had an effect, leaving households with less spare cash to invest or having to raid the investment pots they had spent time building up.

“While we saw some improvement in July, the overall outlook remains uncertain, illustrated by the recent surge in UK government bond yields,” Cummings said. “Equity funds continue to face challenges in the current market environment as the major central banks prepare for a further round of rate rises to combat inflation.”

Short-term money market funds were the bestselling fund category in the month, as investors took a “wait and see” attitude amid a period of economic uncertainty. Investors’ preference for cheap passive managers over active stockpickers was in evidence, too, as tracker funds reported a bounceback with net sales of £924 million.

While retail investors showed some resilience in the month, institutional investors recorded one of the biggest months for outflows, pulling a net £9.4 billion from funds.

The Investment Association numbers cover about £1.4 trillion of retail and institutional investments.

[ochs] 07/9/2022 10:56

US markets still under pressure and yet HL has had a good couple of days...

Shorts closing?
Longer term investors wanting to get in before the xd date? (22 Sept)
Share price getting close to big support at 760p? (although not as close as I'd expected)
Takeover speculation due to low £?

All of the above?

[jubberjim] 07/9/2022 10:47

I ve said it before and I will say it again

This is one seriously dangerous market to try and trade in

Not many players market makers willing to make in market at moment hence wild gyrations in all shares


Staying out until some semblance of order is restored

Crazy

[ochs] 06/9/2022 11:25

I guess most shorters will want to close out before the xd date and so the recent drop was a good opportunity to buy back.

[giltedge1] 06/9/2022 09:28

Looks like a battle between shorters & long term investors. I love these bets.

[action] 05/9/2022 22:19

I use mobile app and tbh do not know how.

[ochs] 05/9/2022 20:39

@ACTION there is an option to edit a post on here where you make a typo ;)

My target to buy more is about 763p, be interesting to see if it gets there - all depends on US markets over next few days - back open tomor after their holiday today.

[action] 05/9/2022 20:08

Tempted twice around 766p. Still waiting.

[spectoacc] 05/9/2022 14:26

"privileged 23 Aug '22 - 11:54 - 1963 of 1993
I think this is a steal personally , amazing ROCE for example."

"privileged 1 Sep '22 - 15:03 - 1992 of 1993
ROCE is around 50-60% which is Nick trains argument."


1. What happens if that ROCE halves, on eg competition, or people invest far less in order to be able to afford to live? Can well imagine pension contributions & ISA savings going by the wayside when the gas/elec bill comes in.

2. How's Mr Train been doing these past 5 years?


Looks set to break support, but time will tell. No hiding for even good co's in this market - and can argue whether HL is even a good co.