Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[thecomposer] 21/6/2022 05:36

The maths here clearly speaks for itself; Brent prices have significantly risen in the past 1 year, and more importantly have consistently remained above the $100+ mark ALL of this year to date, only part of HBR production is hedged so HBR will be significantly benefitting from the constant $100+ PoO here while if Brent continues at same levels going forward (as it clearly has all this year and is forecasted to go even higher by Q4) then remaining hedges will also become lot higher in 2023 just as this year's $200M buy backs end, Tolmount is now also up and running this very year while Indonesia is well progressing along with other projects, as for the WT, clearly it is already way more than priced in HBR and now any last minute adjustments will likely have a massive positive impact here, basically markets need to digest these facts and from my experience and historically, updated results (which should finally include these positives) will speak for themselves thereby, moving the currently very much suppressed share price here lot higher but as usual, smart investors will jump in before the results publications predicting much of these facts, all again IMHO, please DYOR.

[andypop1] 20/6/2022 23:20

Composer,

So the half year results are the next pipe dream to cling to are they?

It's has been one future event after another for years that the disciples have claimed will be the making of this business but each time the gold at the end of the rainbow is just out of reach.

The CEO has come out and said the windfall tax will hit one dimensional businesses like Harbour harder than the big boys who don't just produce but refine and sell the finished product to the end user yet posters on these boards see that as Harbour somehow standing up to the government believing the chancellor will take notice, he won't.

The bill will likely be passed before the half year results so the company will have a duty to explain the impact of the tax when they publish the accounts, if Cookie is lobbying the government that impact may be worse than some are predicting.

But they still have the misunderstood tax losses to fall back on!

Good luck.

[back2basics1] 20/6/2022 16:49

Brent price steady here and trading up around the ~USD $114 levels so far today:

[thecomposer] 20/6/2022 14:29

As we start to get closer to the next company update here in August, HBR share price will begin to rapidly move higher & higher, and then subsequently, short closures will also further speed up the upward move towards lot more deserving levels for HBR, as IMHO, we should be at least 600+ even today, but that's markets.

[mickinvest] 20/6/2022 14:05

While BP and Shell posted multibillion-dollar profits in the first quarter across their international businesses, Cook wrote that most smaller producers haven’t benefited so much from soaring energy prices because much of their production is hedged at lower levels for this year and next. The government should only implement the tax to companies that have realized windfall profits, and allow firms to offset tax losses from previous investments, she said.

Good to see they've finally mentioned the hedging.

[mickinvest] 20/6/2022 11:09

Another large trade today of 6.7m.

I would have expected the Harbour board to have sounded out any of the large holders before the buyback to see if it would have been better to do a tender offer or is there anything preventing that as would have made more sense if there were any holders from the merger still wanting out now that we presume GIC are gone?

[llef] 20/6/2022 10:45

harbour energy have contacted Uk govt apparently, as changes wil have a significant impact..

Harbour Energy said it a statement to Energy Voice that it is “deeply concerned” about the levy, whose impact will be “substantially greater than anticipated, both in scale and longevity, than anticipated and falls on the profits of companies irrespective of whether they are benefiting from higher oil and gas prices”.

It continued: “We continue to assess the potential impact on Harbour Energy of this change in the fiscal regime, but we do envisage a significant impact on our business, our strategy, and our ability to invest in our current and future projects in the UK.”

hxxps://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/north-sea/420705/harbour-energy-urges-chancellor-to-revise-seriously-flawed-windfall-tax-ahead-of-legislation/?utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Daily%20Newsletter%202022-06-20&utm_term=Energy%20Voice%20-%20Newsletter

[nigelpm] 19/6/2022 15:50

Good. Government needs to be aware there will be consequences of dramatically changing tax rates like a tinpot dictatorship would.

[thecomposer] 19/6/2022 15:36

“Norwegian oil giant ‘threatens to ditch £4.5bn North Sea project over Rishi Sunak’s windfall tax’”

[rajni120] 17/6/2022 19:44

So oil was at 20 and share price was in terms of now 1000Oil 100 share price now 350Shambles all crooksSomeone explain

[bearnecessities33] 17/6/2022 19:16

The incredibly low HBR share price along with the weaker Pound (GBP) V USD$ here simply means that we will now be able to “Buy Back” much more shares here than we could have even dreamt of and hence, all good and rather perfect timing for longer term/patient HBR investors with Brent firmly at $100+ so far all year in still an extremely tight forward market.

[nigelpm] 17/6/2022 18:30

As long as they keep buying back a million shares a day below £4 the share price will ultimately look after itself.

[monkeybusiness1] 17/6/2022 18:19

Two excellent RNS updates here on Director purchases today, highlighting management faith in HBR, particularly as HBR insiders already own circa 2% of the company which is far more than typical average LSE management ownership (and they probably could not have added here prior to the confirmation announcement of the $200M buy backs), markets should take this pretty positively next week, GLA.

[mickinvest] 17/6/2022 18:11

3 RNS

Just under 27m shares traded today

Around 900k in the buyback

2 small director buys of 10k and 8.5k.

[tonytyke2] 17/6/2022 17:27

apologies wrong board

[mickinvest] 17/6/2022 16:02

We must be out of ammo for the day, Brent down $5.50 and we only get about 20% of that bottom line so looks overdone. Suppose the drop in oil and 20% pullback in the indices along with a drop in house prices will be enough to tame inflation. Difficult to see a recession avoided though with negative HPI which is more of an issue than oil in my view.

[74sjh] 17/6/2022 09:55

I agree with Andy that this ongoing downward pressure suggests there are still sellers in the back ground and I would think that logically it is still part of the overhang. I agree with Auson that not all the legacy investors will sell. My understanding is that EIG hold 36.7% as per the TR1 on 9 April 21. This percentage remains the same following the share consolidation. Therefore the potential overhang is 63.3%.Of this 63%, the first to go would have been the expmo creditors at 18%. They are not natural equity holders and I expect they would have sold at the first opportunity. We know GIC have sold at least 10%. So worst case scenario is that 28% of the overhang has cleared leaving 35% left. I think the real picture is that the overhang is far less but given the trading volumes since the lock ups expired.

[onlylongterm9] 17/6/2022 08:43

Brent now again trading above USD $120 which along with start of buy backs, enhanced production, and an overall weaker GBP, clearly make HBR the most undervalued & oversold LSE O&G play by a long way here today, if you’re a longer term investor, share price here has potential to treble overtime.

[auson1] 17/6/2022 07:55

andypop1,

I know its strange, its almost like they don't want to sell at 350 and would rather sell at 650

Also there is no way the all of the 77% want to sell

[andypop1] 16/6/2022 23:51

You couldn't make this up!

The BoDs, some of whom were fellow investors with the legacy sellers, have created a pathway to assist the private equity to be rinsed at a faster pace.

Does anybody still believe the 77% has cleared?

Good luck.

[heialex1] 16/6/2022 23:17

This market is creating tremendous buying opportunities in stock such as HBR, ENQ, SHEL, TLW, etc... quite possibly once in a generation type opportunities In fairness to the management here, they are buying their stock back when prices are low, as opposed to many companies who buy back when prices are high.

[dandigirl] 16/6/2022 19:46

back2basics: 3 ticks, pleeease.

Over 925M shares in issue.

Less than 1m bought-back. Shares traded below daily average. At close, 4p down.

Way to go, girls and boys.

Appreciate that this is only the first day but let's not pretend that this was other than just a sighter.