Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[puzzler2] 09/6/2022 15:22

The positives, which I think are largely overlooked, are (as I see them):
1. At current and HBR's hedged oil prices, the PBT for 2022 will likely be substantial;
2. Assuming that HBR's hedging policy continues as is, then the benefits of higher oil prices are largely deferred into the future, so there should be plenty of upside;
3. Having regard to the new windfall tax and on working through the likely tax charge for 2022, the new field investment allowances reduce the overall tax burden significantly;
4. $4bn of tax losses still to be used.
One day the market will wake up to this.

[auson1] 09/6/2022 15:19

74sjh,

Well yes and also not quite as FCA over 0.5% disclosures have to be net short. Euroclear will show gross stock on loan.
It's all quite murky but I don't think there is another ARCM style undisclosed big short a foot with Harbour.

[milliecusto] 09/6/2022 15:16

It's the usual, people will ignore this share price and buy in much higher, great entry point

[luckyjoe999] 09/6/2022 15:03

“Simply Wall Street” analysts calculations currently have HBR “Fair Value” at £6.69 Today, it will undoubtedly be very much higher here as the year progresses.

[puzzler2] 09/6/2022 14:49

I added today. Agree that there are so many positives here, that the wider market just overlooks. It should be a different picture by the end of the year.

[bearnecessities33] 09/6/2022 14:33

HBR is clearly a buy, hold (and add further) here at the moment, and so long as Oil prices remain above $70 levels this will do nicely over time, particularly as current hedges expire going forward, daily/weekly fluctuations are insignificant unless you’re adding, all IMO.

[milliecusto] 09/6/2022 14:00

This is one frustrating share lol

[one_frankel] 09/6/2022 13:44

Hehe, isn't that widely apparent with all shares DandiGirl or did you think share prices are based on here and now!

[dandigirl] 09/6/2022 13:33

Hard not to agree with andypop - he has been right on this for many months now.

Sustained share price uplift is always in the future.

Maybe tomorrow?

[milliecusto] 09/6/2022 12:53

Definitely an interest to keep the share price down, lots of small AT trades

[r88ave] 09/6/2022 12:42

cheeky tree shake that is :)

[technowiz] 09/6/2022 12:18

386p. support around here hope so?!

[milliecusto] 09/6/2022 12:07

Big but at 932k , probably why dropped to accommodate

[74sjh] 09/6/2022 10:14

Good luck with HBR IR. I did ask them ages ago why there was no TR1 for ARCM given that if their short position had converted into shares of 16/17% or whatever it was, then surely there should have been a disclosure. No reply.The fca do have a contact email at the bottom of their short selling page but only in context for a request for guidance so maybe get them to explain the relationship between euroclear data and short selling?

[milliecusto] 09/6/2022 09:04

Definitely brewing to hit go through 400p

[r88ave] 09/6/2022 08:59

Hold tight I reckon it will be today to breakout imo.

[ashkv] 09/6/2022 08:38

Note I sent to Elizabeth at HBR investor relations ->

I hope this message finds you well.

As a long term Premier Oil and now Harbour Energy shareholder - I would like to bring to your attention a possible repeat of the Premier Oil / Asia Research and Capital Management situation where a large but undisclosed short position has transpired / come about in HBR shares.

Listed below is the recent monthly average of HBR shares borrowed per Euroclear - this data is publicly disclosed (you can verify from the link). The number of shares borrowed / out on loan and not disclosed in FCA short selling daily public disclosure file ( link on this page for FCA file ) is alarming. I don't know of many instances when there are so many shares borrowed / out on loan but no corresponding short disclosure.

Could you please bring to the attention of the appointed brokers of HBR and relevant HBR management.

Harbour Energy Stock Borrowed on Average for Dec 2021 2.86%
Harbour Energy Stock Borrowed on Average for Jan 2022 2.07%
Harbour Energy Stock Borrowed on Average for Feb 2022 2.05%
Harbour Energy Stock Borrowed on Average for Mar 2022 3.64%
Harbour Energy Stock Borrowed on Average for Apr 2022 6.48%
Harbour Energy Stock Borrowed on Average for May 2022 9.24%

hxxps://my.euroclear.com/apps/en/monthly-stock-loan-data.html#month=eq:5&year=eq:2022&limit=9&search=1&order=asc:abbreviation

Thank you in advance for your assistance.

[bomfin] 09/6/2022 08:05

Thanks for info on Andaman. 6 trillion cubic feet gas target. That might be for the whole blocks there though? Still a success here opens up an underexplored basin.

[bomfin] 09/6/2022 04:41

Sqz have used all tax credits up. Harbour still have £ billions of tax credits.

[74sjh] 08/6/2022 22:05

Frankel I'm also very positive on HBR. We can all see the potential when the hedges expire. Andaman results due any moment - surely a risky time to be short? I wonder if the 10% on loan is not being used as collateral to raise cash. EIG are looking to buy part of Repsol so perhaps they are raising cash against part of their stake in Hbr? It's possible?

[one_frankel] 08/6/2022 19:43

Its nothing but the uncertainty with HBR buddy and I honestly dont know how affected SQZ are with the WT but HBR need to release some confirmation as to how detrimental it is to their business...But at these valuations, I doubt it will cause much further weakness so if you're invested dont worry as I have a very health position here and a little higher than current valuations and I still continue to be incredibly bullish!

[74sjh] 08/6/2022 19:36

Isnt the general thinking that SQZ was the proportionally the worst affected by the WT? Have they got 10% on loan too? I guess if they have them you guys are right and it's all probably down to shorting around the WT.

[one_frankel] 08/6/2022 19:13

Yes its possible but not consistently ongoing which is quite clearly apparent to HBR buddy!

...Why would anyone short HBR?...Because there's been no clarification statement from the company as to its position with the windfall tax and its ongoing liabilities, uncertainty is the biggest driver for shorting activity my dear friend!

[74sjh] 08/6/2022 19:09

An increase in stock on loan can (or used to be indicative in my day) of when institutions dividend washed for tax purposes. They would lend stick to jurisdictions where the re was no tax payable on the div and then see them returned in the following months. Maybe something like that is going on. I just don't see why anyone would short harbour right now even though it's fallen in recent weeks.

[one_frankel] 08/6/2022 19:03

Oil exploration comes with significant risks across the board which is why even significant shareholders use arbitrage to protect their investments buddy and if you wholly invest in commodities you should be well aware of the shortcomings!