Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[zicopele] 12/6/2022 14:45

Harbour Energy is generating enormous amounts of free cash. Deleveraging will be complete sometime in early 2023.

Notwithstanding any share overhang, the profits being generated are remarkable.

Ar some stage, these will underpin the share price.

[one_frankel] 12/6/2022 06:05

...Ever wondered why GIC didn't trade their former allocation of shares 8 months ago Poop?...Whilst the price action has clearly demonstrated a capitulation in share price since the April unlocking!

...So I hate to be the one to break it to you buddy but somehow HBRs price action tells somewhat of a different story to what you're envisaging, which surely isnt akin to 'Not' destroying shareholder value is it!

...My dear learned friend, don't delve too deeply into past shenanigans, it will cloud your judgement going forward but maybe thats why you have such an affiliation for untimely investing!

[andypop1] 11/6/2022 22:16

Frankie,
With GIC still offloading when they were free to trade their shares 8 months ago and given they only held around 12.5% of the 33% former EIG shareholder allocation, add in the 36% of the shares unlocked in April do you not think it is currently 'rather futile to look ahead'?
You are deluded if you believe Cookie has done a sterling job reducing the impact on shareholders, Kirk jumped ship just in time to offload his shares without having to disclose any sells to the market, Cookie is being compensated with a generous salary until such a time the PE has been rinsed and she can step down and offload her treasure!

Good luck buddy!

[one_frankel] 11/6/2022 04:08

...And it's interesting that the overhang continues to remain which may be indicative as to why theres so many AT trades daily or better known as shorting activity, so thanks for that Poop, I'm grateful for the information!

[one_frankel] 11/6/2022 04:03

...Isn't that the whole premise of private equity companies, to release the overhang as the business prospers without it being hugely detrimental to the shareholders Andy?

...I think one forgets how PMO got ahead of itself with its ambitions before the RTO and LC has achieved quite a sterling job with HBR in reducing the impact of the overhang on shareholders, even with the WT and the momentum of crude in a contrived situation, wouldn't you agree?

...And by the way buddy, I'm very well researched, it's just some refuse to see the 'Bigger Picture' my dear learned friend!

[andypop1] 10/6/2022 22:45

The % in my previous post was incorrect, former EIG shareholders were unlocked after 6 months, it was only the EIG Global Energy Partners that had a 12 month lock up but my point remains.

If 18% is a serious overhang then what is 36%?

Apologies for the mistake, I'll put it down to my genes!

Good luck.

[andypop1] 10/6/2022 21:34

Frankie,

You posted:

'By the way, following the RTO of PMO, there was a serious overhang in shares which is why it was rather futile to look ahead at the time!'

Below is the share allocation at the time of the takeover, you consider the 18% creditor shares a serious overhang?

What about the 69% of the company that was unlocked in April this year?

I'll say it again, private equity doesn't invest for the good of a business, the takeover provided a vehicle for the equity to be liquidated.

EIG Global Energy Partners 36%

Former EIG shareholders 33%

Former Premier creditors 18%

Chrysaor legacy investors 8%

Former Premier shareholders 5%

Good luck, please do a little more research before trying to put posters down buddy.

[milliecusto] 10/6/2022 15:41

General markets look apocalyptic with no end in sight, time to switch off for a while

[one_frankel] 10/6/2022 15:00

In a roundabout way they seem about right buddy but I think amortisation costs could be a little higher which again could be offset by anticipated significant investment in future by the company!

...What do you think Andy as we really do 'Value' your breadth of knowledge here!

[one_frankel] 10/6/2022 14:32

Hehe, unfortunately I dont enjoy cryptic clues Dandi so try being a little more literal in future!

...By the way, following the RTO of PMO, there was a serious overhang in shares which is why it was rather futile to look ahead at the time!

...And Mr Poop is generally a pessimist regardless, maybe its just hereditary, who knows!

[puzzler2] 10/6/2022 14:30

The WT is a red herring. Suppose HBR earn a profit this year of say £1.8bn (what they say should be their free cash flow) - add back depreciation of say £1.5bn, so a profit subject to tax of £3.3bn @ 65% - less new field development costs of say £1bn (out of stated cap-ex of £1.3bn)@ 91.25% - less tax losses equivalent to 50% of their taxable profits, so say £1bn @ 65%. ...which I reckon comes to a tax charge of around £580m or a little over 30% of profit - hardly excessive. OK - these figures are rough and ready and I'd be happy to be told why they're hopelessly wrong. However, as stated before, HBR clarifying this would be helpful.

[dandigirl] 10/6/2022 14:26

Still not getting my point are you Franky? Keep trying and you may get there.

I and others were looking ahead last year when andypop was posting. It is to be hoped that sooner or later HBR will come good with andypop finally getting it wrong. That’s why we continue to hold. But he hasn’t so far. That’s the point!

Let us hope there is sustained uplift soon but at the moment the share price continues to defy logic.

[one_frankel] 10/6/2022 14:13

Its just the uncertainty driving HBRs concerted weakness and providing impetus for the shorts but any clarification statement with regards to WT and how detrimental it may be to the company in future will soothe investors appetite!

...In future, HBR should be heading higher all things being equal, when you have rather uncompromising Putin that is so proactive in trying to destroy the PetroDollar and will want the West to long suffer for all their meddling in the Baltic region, we have yet to see where crude goes!

[one_frankel] 10/6/2022 14:08

Bang on Puzzler2, re: comment 1429!

...And Andy, HBRs come a long way in aligning their ducks since the good old days of that PMO debacle and I'm very relaxed and continue to accumulate, you fancy joining in the fun?

...Well there's your answer Dandi as to why one becomes somewhat disillusioned with their investing prowess, try thinking ahead in future though when making those all important decisions!

[puzzler2] 10/6/2022 14:05

I think the half-year results will be a catalyst for showing just how profitable (post-tax) this company is. At the moment the market's a voting machine - it won't be long before it becomes a weighing machine. FWIW I bought in recently at 499.6p, but quickly exited at 473.9p as the share price began its recent fall, buying everything back again at 391.8p - nevertheless, the present share price doldrums are annoying.

[janhar] 10/6/2022 13:33

Is this an oil company or am I wrong? Oil at 124 and trading statement due shortly. Despite the windfall tax this is hugely geared to the oil price and oil ain't going down any time soon.

[onedb1] 10/6/2022 12:21

Compare SQZ too.. since their clarifying email it has rallied and started to move up again . Hbr has remained quiet . Lazy

[onedb1] 10/6/2022 12:19

Brent could be at $500 yet seem to impact share price very little, much in the same way as all the bbs bullishness or brokers in the mid 600s . Price is not reflecting what we all want . Am long at 413 and divis at 461. Just need momentum to come back . Till then I despair as I too can't see why this is behaving this way . Not to mention that they are adding value everyday in spite of additional tax rate ( which won't be a net tax addition but a gross of investment relief and not on global portfolio but just UK . ) Just sitting miserably and patiently

[milliecusto] 10/6/2022 11:00

At these levels, wouldn't surprise being bought out, makes you wonder why the urge to keep it suppressed, if a buy out is based on Average sp, someone is getting a bargain

[r88ave] 10/6/2022 10:57

wow...this sure is hard one to invest..i guess follow the trend at the mo..the big boys are dragging down for some reason. Fundamentals are very good but there must be something else not easily seen by PI?? Still holding tight to see way of this slippery slope. Patience and pain threshol need to keep hold...

[back2basics1] 10/6/2022 10:46

Brent prices continue looking extremely bullish here at ~$123+ levels today:



When it comes to market, clearly no share price ever trades on the here and now but overtime HBR should easily eat more than double based on present day fundamentals, ultra crazy low levels here today with $120+ PoO.

[milliecusto] 10/6/2022 10:26

https://moneyweek.com/investments/stocks-and-shares/energy-stocks/604916/energy-windfall-tax-winners-and-losersCourtesy of lse poster

[onlylongterm9] 10/6/2022 09:29

“The world must brace itself for a further surge in oil prices”: