Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[monkeybusiness1] 30/5/2022 07:43

“Brent Crude Tops $120 as Shanghai Eases Curbs, EU Leaders Meet”:

“Key Chinese city will ease lockdown as manufacturers restart”
“EU yet to hammer out deal to restrict imports of Russian crude”

[thecomposer] 30/5/2022 07:37

From Harbour Energy's Last Trading Update:

§ Q1 production averaged 215 kboepd, up c.35 per cent on Q1 2021; on track to meet full year guidance of 195-210 kboepd

§ Q1 operating costs of $14.1/boe; full year guidance unchanged at $15-16/boe

§ New wells on-stream at J-Area, AELE and Tolmount (UK); active 2022 rig programme including drilling underway at the Catcher- and J-Areas (UK) and the Andaman II licence (Indonesia)

§ Total capex (including decommissioning spend) of c.$160 million for Q1; full year guidance of $1.3 billion unchanged, an increase of c.40 per cent versus 2021 levels reflecting the increase in drilling activity

§ Continued progress on Harbour’s UK CCS projects in line with the Group’s goal of Net Zero by 2035

§ Net debt reduced to $1.7 billion at 31 March from $2.3 billion at 31 December 2021

§ Proposed final dividend of $100 million (8.4505 pence per share) for full year 2021 to be paid on 18 May, subject to shareholder approval

Linda Z Cook, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

“We have had a strong start to the year. Our increased production reflects the addition of the Premier portfolio, improved operating reliability and increased UK drilling activity. The Tolmount field in the UK began production in April and, once plateau levels are reached, the project is expected to increase UK domestic gas production by more than 5 per cent.

We continue to invest in high return, infrastructure-led opportunities within our asset base to sustain production while at the same time generating material free cash flow. This together with our robust balance sheet provides us with significant optionality over future capital allocation.

We are committed to producing oil and gas responsibly. As well as taking action to reduce emissions from our operations, we are very focused on progressing our CCS activities in the UK which include the V Net Zero project in the Humber region and an interest in the Acorn project in Scotland. These projects have the potential to capture and store multiple times Harbour’s annual emissions.”

[elsa7878] 29/5/2022 22:56

A lot of people on here choosing to ignore that besides the $107 million hit this year, what about the $268 million in 2023 and then 2024 and 2025….

[ammons] 29/5/2022 12:54

They are not loopholes. The government have deliberately tried to force north sea producers to reinvest money or lose it in tax. How is that a loophole?

[luckyjoe999] 29/5/2022 11:49

Post from lse bb today:

ButterscotchLad
Posts: 18
Price: 382.10
No Opinion
RE: Pmo
Today 10:31

“Since the acquisition of PMO here along with it’s truly outstanding flagship global assets, Brent prices have more than doubled while also US$ (In which PoO is set) has also increased at same time, yet due to short term panic selling resulting from a now clearly negligible relative windfall tax, HBR has lost more than £1.5 Billion of market capitalisation (for a mere potential ~$107M WT this year which could even get reversed in due course due to usual government U turns)! Basically, HBR obtained a grand bargain with PMO which now with a previously unimaginable $120 Brent already in place will soon begin to reflect in an extremely strong balance sheet for HBR going forward; HBR today is clearly way too oversold & undervalued but that is nature of markets, providing unique opportunities for patient investors who are not fixated with daily fluctuations/timing the markets but time in the markets, GLA.”

Excellent post TC, as an ex-PMO shareholder, I know that due to PMO debt and subsequent perfect timing for Chrysaor Holdings, HBR of today basically obtained PMO at an absolutely massive bargain, now with lot higher PoO (and strategic importance plus non replacement of Oil for some time ahead clearly highlighted), HBR MCap should easily more than double from here overtime as things roll in place, funny enough reading in the Sunday papers that even for the currently forecasted $107M WT this year, conservative government have left many loopholes for oil company accounts to utilise moving forward, it’s all political noise!

[farmerjohn1] 29/5/2022 11:31

“Loophole could let North Sea oil and gas giants slash UK windfall tax bill”:

[back2basics1] 28/5/2022 18:02

“Our Perspective on Britain’s Oil and Gas ‘Windfall Profit’ Tax”:

“Windfall profit taxes have landed in Britain, but the market impact seems minimal.”

“we don’t think this is a huge negative. Sunak expects the plan to raise around £5 billion, and while that might take a good chunk from UK Energy—about a fifth of last year’s roughly £25 billion in profits—analyst estimates still project the sector to double profits this year.[ii] Besides, we think markets have largely pre-priced the hit already—it looks mostly like a one-off flesh wound than a longstanding headwind.”

“In the grand scheme of things, though, the UK’s windfall tax looks more like political theater than a punch. Tax uncertainty appears negligible next to Energy’s main fundamental earnings drivers—oil prices and the global supply and demand behind them”

[chutes01] 28/5/2022 12:12

S/D season in N Sea so expect long outages, and HBR run with high OPEX budgets, plenty of cash generation but they need to implement financial governance akin to Shell in order to maximise shareholder value.
Interesting that the PMO listing gives them about £4 Bill tax losses to offset, however as suggested is it a way of liquidating Venture cap Ex Chrysaor.
Too cheap last night.

[one_frankel] 28/5/2022 12:08

Longtime Andy Poop but Ramping?...Hmmm, not resounding value at current levels then!

[luckyjoe999] 28/5/2022 10:50

Post from lse bb today:

ButterscotchLad
Posts: 13
Price: 382.10
No Opinion
RE: Consolation prize
Today 10:03

“HBR share price drops/fire sale in past few weeks are clearly way too overdone, market cap loss here of ~£1.5 Billion for a $107M potential tax this year, market knows this well and I believe will completely recover here in coming days/weeks, there were lot more buys than sells on Friday (more than double), and now looking at the closing/after hour trades, I believe that we are in for a very nice rebound rally, bottom feeders and shorts whom have gathered here for obvious reasons will regret not closing their positions/not buying in on Friday, GLA.”

Great Post WI, spot on, and absolutely concur here, last but not least, let’s not forget an incredible Brent price of circa $120 in place today that is going to be a game changer both for our unhedged crude sales and the hedged as our hedging positions improve going forward.

[dandigirl] 28/5/2022 07:24

Thing is Harbour’s next scheduled update is the interims on 26/08.

Long time to wait for news from the Company.

[farmerjohn1] 27/5/2022 23:12

“Farmer,
I hope you planted some wheat and corn, you'll get a good return on them.”

Yes, certainly will these days!
Also great to see bullish Brent prices up once again today and now trading at circa $119:

[andypop1] 27/5/2022 22:41

Farmer,
I hope you planted some wheat and corn, you'll get a good return on them.

Monkeyb,
You were telling us this was oversold yesterday and look what happened!
Can we trust you?

Good luck

[luckyjoe999] 27/5/2022 22:24

Post from lse bb today:

onthebeach3
Posts: 752
Price: 382.10
No Opinion
Today 20:51
RE: What a Day

“HBR windfall tax estimates for this year are a mere $107M by city analysts but the recent MCap drop here has been a massive totally unjustified £1.5 Billion!”



Ditto, even the now forecasted $107M WT hit will likely be further mitigated here by much needed CAPEX spending and of course seemingly lot higher Brent prices.

[monkeybusiness1] 27/5/2022 22:16

Major lack of investment in the O&G industry since the price drops of Q4 2014 means PoO is only going north as uninvested mature fields decline further in production naturally, and this is not including any potential shocks to the markets, O&G is the place to be today, and at this valuation, I see HBR as by far the best and currently most undervalued & oversold UK oiler.

[farmerjohn1] 27/5/2022 22:11

Not surprising to see bottom feeders here in HBR today for obvious reasons, significantly more “Buys” today as compared to “Sells” (more than 2-1), and personally confident that we’ll see a major rally from these clearly way oversold levels here from next week onwards.

[andypop1] 27/5/2022 21:55

It's good to see the cult-like following continues with this dog of a company that is no more than a mechanism to convert previously invested private equity into a cash return!
So what's the next event that will propel this up to a ridiculous price where you can all sell and retire?
There have been so many promises of riches over the years from the rampers yet here it is at 19p in old money.
Don't believe all you read on these boards.
Good luck.

[monkeybusiness1] 27/5/2022 21:52

“BofA: Sharp Decline In Russian Exports Could Send Oil Above $150”:

[spacedust] 27/5/2022 21:42

Will top up at 310p to reduce average. Right now I need 30p to break even. Old money

[chutes01] 27/5/2022 17:39

trade of the month
HBR carry huge tax losses from PMO, back to 500p

[one_frankel] 27/5/2022 17:32

Have some conviction here Dandi, its 'Du_mb Money' or better known as instituitional investors moving the market but soon enough they'll realise their untimely decisions...And by the way, I've been accumulating around the 420p mark of yesterday so you've really got nothing to worry about!

[dandigirl] 27/5/2022 17:20

Probably being daft but topped up @ around 380 this aft.

[one_frankel] 27/5/2022 17:00

Good points RandomWalker...And that is why implications of the levy will be incredibly fruitful to HBR in future so dont sell prematurely as this is blatant manipulation without any just cause!

[randomwalker] 27/5/2022 16:36

No, but HBR has been spending vast amounts on developing new fields eg Tolmount (rather more than we would like) and that IS deductible

More importantly, the price that CNOOC will achieve will have been hugely reduced .....to a point where it would be attractive to a company that is still trying to develop new fields

[marmar80] 27/5/2022 16:27

If they screw oil companies then oil prices will climb even higher