Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[puzzler2] 31/5/2022 11:02

I don't think that many people will have tried to estimate the 2022 profit at current oil prices and, having regard to planned capital expenditure for the year, then calculate the tax thereon, as I have done. On doing so, it becomes clear that the likely post tax profit this year will be substantial and that the present valuation doesn't do it justice.

[monkeybusiness1] 31/5/2022 09:45

Brent price & UK Gas prices are absolutely rocketing here, now very much looking forward to the next company update, HBR is clearly the most undervalued FTSE Oiler at the moment.

[cashisking76] 30/5/2022 22:22

“Lessons from the 1970s stagflation: Commodities may be among the only trades that work”



Now interestingly:
“How The EU Plan To Ban Russian Oil Could Cause Stagflation”

[onlylongterm9] 30/5/2022 21:00

Nice Brent price here today:

[wbodger] 30/5/2022 18:02

Thanks for the explanation. I almost posted about #1276 to ask you for one.

Institutions should not be unsuspecting, but will be concentrating attention on ratio of Debt to Market Cap. If debt is now £1.7 billion and Market Cap is around £3.9 billion that is no longer an over-indebted company. Future production need not be hedged if debts are paid off, and they must be nearing a position to swap dates on hedged production. Even without changing hedge profile they might eliminate most debt and not have to hedge ( Unless by choice.)

[chutes01] 30/5/2022 17:06

the pmo listing is a way of allowing venture capital(chrysaor) to transfer shares into hands of unsuspecting institutions
PK will want to extract some of his share now, the other directors have also become uber wealthy by exploitation
however, due a rebound here

[one_frankel] 30/5/2022 16:05

Hehe, that's what private equity firms do Sigma if you weren't already aware, try to achieve shareholder value where others have been unsuccessful for whatever reason...But I very much doubt with LCs considerable experience in the O&G sector, she is not well-versed to see where that additional value can be squeezed from within their assets!

[sigma3333] 30/5/2022 15:05

Sure LC is an impressive CEO…..

but what have HBR achieved to date.

All the assets were being worked by very capable teams etc. prior to being sold. It’s very difficult to squeeze out any more . Sure the upside in the sales packages can be drilled up (why didn’t previous owners drill em ?) but unlikly for any to be company makers (good business maybe).

HBR need to do something to make the market look up and take note.
siggy

[bearnecessities33] 30/5/2022 15:00

3 X more Buys than sells today, it was almost same trend on Friday (2 X Buys V Sales on Friday), hence looks like MMs are helping a few to load up here big time; no way HBR share price will stay this low for long, simply way too oversold and undervalued here at the moment.

[one_frankel] 30/5/2022 14:08

I have which is why I continue to build my position in HBR...You willing or do you consider propositions after the herds arrive and the price action has unfortunately passed you by!

[brazilnut1] 30/5/2022 13:40

3.73p bid. Go figure that.

[one_frankel] 30/5/2022 13:35

That maybe the case but LC wouldn't retain those 'Aged-Old' assets unless the rather discerning CEO considered them to be of value to HBRs ambitions and ultimately shareholders...But try figuring that!

[sigma3333] 30/5/2022 13:28

OF
LC didn't buy those 'Aged old' assets, PK did - go figure

siggy

[one_frankel] 30/5/2022 13:12

I think the concerted weakness is just a reweighting in anticipation of being ousted from the FTSE 10O, unlikely the share price is still continuing to be adversely affected by that infamous windfall tax...

And Sigma3333, Linda Cook is an incredibly shrewd CEO with a longstanding track record by the way who wouldn't buy those 'Aged old' assets unless there was some resounding value to be achieved for shareholders in future!

[back2basics1] 30/5/2022 11:39

Incredibly easy to forget that HBR is now a major O&G producer here with Zero ties to Russia while trading at a mere PE of ~2 (with Brent & Gas prices at unbelievable levels), time to load up!

[monkeybusiness1] 30/5/2022 07:43

“Brent Crude Tops $120 as Shanghai Eases Curbs, EU Leaders Meet”:

“Key Chinese city will ease lockdown as manufacturers restart”
“EU yet to hammer out deal to restrict imports of Russian crude”

[thecomposer] 30/5/2022 07:37

From Harbour Energy's Last Trading Update:

§ Q1 production averaged 215 kboepd, up c.35 per cent on Q1 2021; on track to meet full year guidance of 195-210 kboepd

§ Q1 operating costs of $14.1/boe; full year guidance unchanged at $15-16/boe

§ New wells on-stream at J-Area, AELE and Tolmount (UK); active 2022 rig programme including drilling underway at the Catcher- and J-Areas (UK) and the Andaman II licence (Indonesia)

§ Total capex (including decommissioning spend) of c.$160 million for Q1; full year guidance of $1.3 billion unchanged, an increase of c.40 per cent versus 2021 levels reflecting the increase in drilling activity

§ Continued progress on Harbour’s UK CCS projects in line with the Group’s goal of Net Zero by 2035

§ Net debt reduced to $1.7 billion at 31 March from $2.3 billion at 31 December 2021

§ Proposed final dividend of $100 million (8.4505 pence per share) for full year 2021 to be paid on 18 May, subject to shareholder approval

Linda Z Cook, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

“We have had a strong start to the year. Our increased production reflects the addition of the Premier portfolio, improved operating reliability and increased UK drilling activity. The Tolmount field in the UK began production in April and, once plateau levels are reached, the project is expected to increase UK domestic gas production by more than 5 per cent.

We continue to invest in high return, infrastructure-led opportunities within our asset base to sustain production while at the same time generating material free cash flow. This together with our robust balance sheet provides us with significant optionality over future capital allocation.

We are committed to producing oil and gas responsibly. As well as taking action to reduce emissions from our operations, we are very focused on progressing our CCS activities in the UK which include the V Net Zero project in the Humber region and an interest in the Acorn project in Scotland. These projects have the potential to capture and store multiple times Harbour’s annual emissions.”

[elsa7878] 29/5/2022 22:56

A lot of people on here choosing to ignore that besides the $107 million hit this year, what about the $268 million in 2023 and then 2024 and 2025….

[ammons] 29/5/2022 12:54

They are not loopholes. The government have deliberately tried to force north sea producers to reinvest money or lose it in tax. How is that a loophole?

[luckyjoe999] 29/5/2022 11:49

Post from lse bb today:

ButterscotchLad
Posts: 18
Price: 382.10
No Opinion
RE: Pmo
Today 10:31

“Since the acquisition of PMO here along with it’s truly outstanding flagship global assets, Brent prices have more than doubled while also US$ (In which PoO is set) has also increased at same time, yet due to short term panic selling resulting from a now clearly negligible relative windfall tax, HBR has lost more than £1.5 Billion of market capitalisation (for a mere potential ~$107M WT this year which could even get reversed in due course due to usual government U turns)! Basically, HBR obtained a grand bargain with PMO which now with a previously unimaginable $120 Brent already in place will soon begin to reflect in an extremely strong balance sheet for HBR going forward; HBR today is clearly way too oversold & undervalued but that is nature of markets, providing unique opportunities for patient investors who are not fixated with daily fluctuations/timing the markets but time in the markets, GLA.”

Excellent post TC, as an ex-PMO shareholder, I know that due to PMO debt and subsequent perfect timing for Chrysaor Holdings, HBR of today basically obtained PMO at an absolutely massive bargain, now with lot higher PoO (and strategic importance plus non replacement of Oil for some time ahead clearly highlighted), HBR MCap should easily more than double from here overtime as things roll in place, funny enough reading in the Sunday papers that even for the currently forecasted $107M WT this year, conservative government have left many loopholes for oil company accounts to utilise moving forward, it’s all political noise!

[farmerjohn1] 29/5/2022 11:31

“Loophole could let North Sea oil and gas giants slash UK windfall tax bill”:

[back2basics1] 28/5/2022 18:02

“Our Perspective on Britain’s Oil and Gas ‘Windfall Profit’ Tax”:

“Windfall profit taxes have landed in Britain, but the market impact seems minimal.”

“we don’t think this is a huge negative. Sunak expects the plan to raise around £5 billion, and while that might take a good chunk from UK Energy—about a fifth of last year’s roughly £25 billion in profits—analyst estimates still project the sector to double profits this year.[ii] Besides, we think markets have largely pre-priced the hit already—it looks mostly like a one-off flesh wound than a longstanding headwind.”

“In the grand scheme of things, though, the UK’s windfall tax looks more like political theater than a punch. Tax uncertainty appears negligible next to Energy’s main fundamental earnings drivers—oil prices and the global supply and demand behind them”