Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[s34icknote] 24/5/2022 12:48

Wow this gives up its gains quickly ???

[my retirement fund] 24/5/2022 08:21

Interesting reality on the current oil pressures (basically we're funked if aviation returns to pressures pandemic levels) https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/war-in-ukraine-didnt-cause-the-energy-crisis-says-saudi-aramco-chief-amin-nasser-vmxdg06kw

[llef] 23/5/2022 13:51

perhaps dear of a UK windfall tax is holding back Harbour share price

This is what the CEO told the FT today


"The biggest producer of oil and gas in UK waters has pushed back strongly against government threats of a windfall tax on the industry’s surging profits, warning it would make some North Sea projects uneconomic and could be “detrimental” to the country’s energy security.

Linda Cook, chief executive of the FTSE 100 company Harbour Energy, warned a one-off levy would lead to the industry approving fewer projects at a time when ministers want to maximise domestic energy production to reduce the country’s reliance on imports, including from Russia.

“A higher tax burden will make it more challenging for new oil and gas projects to meet investment hurdle rates, meaning fewer projects will be sanctioned. This is at a time when industry is being encouraged to increase domestic UK oil and gas production and support an orderly energy transition,” Cook told the Financial Times.

[dandigirl] 23/5/2022 08:58

“””;Harbour's next scheduled update to the market is on Thursday 25 August 2022 when it will issue its Half Year results for the period 1 January to 30 June 2022”””.

Long time to wait for more news.

[s34icknote] 20/5/2022 09:42

Nice 2 miilion plus buy

[swanvesta] 18/5/2022 23:06

Harbour mentioned here:

[swanvesta] 18/5/2022 23:05

Spot is NBP day ahead, not NBP front month future? That's the price that's been clobbered recently.

[mickinvest] 18/5/2022 09:01

188p for June at the moment going by IG spreadbetting, Brent $112 and pound down 100 cents against the dollar, all indicators pointing north.

[s34icknote] 18/5/2022 08:58

The future price is a lot higher !!They expect a shortage to occur or tight supplies

[mickinvest] 18/5/2022 08:09

Come back and post here when you understand spot price and the futures market lief.

[llef] 18/5/2022 07:59

harbour said this on may 11
"At $100/bbl and 200p/therm average prices for 2022, Harbour continues to expect to generate between $1.5 and $1.7 billion of free cash flow (after tax and the $200 million dividend payment) with the potential to be net debt free in 2023."

it might be a temporary problem, but unfortunately, spot gas prices have been falling in the uk
"Now look at the main UK wholesale gas price, the NBP or "national balancing point" to give it its technical name. It has fallen from around 285p a therm in late March to just 38p a therm a few days ago. At the time of writing it had bounced up to 100p a therm, but was still far lower than before the Russian invasion. In fact, these wholesale prices are at the lowest level for nearly 18 months."

hxxps://news.sky.com/story/the-surreal-but-also-real-problem-of-britains-gas-glut-12614797

[deanmatlazin] 17/5/2022 08:25

back up to above £5 by next week

[elsa7878] 16/5/2022 13:14

Large seller who seems intent to drip out the stock at the rate of 400,000 a day, though they did just dump 8 million in a couple of days. Why on earth they don't just place the lot and get on with it. Either they're trying to maximise their price and think the drip approach is more beneficial to them or there are no large buyers out there to take them out. Probably a bit of both. It is odd though.

[money mad] 16/5/2022 12:44

Very odd behaviour at the moment .

[mickinvest] 13/5/2022 09:51

Morning all, threw this together on another board for someone looking for another oil investment, any thoughts / corrections?

Harbour Energy look a steady climber from here unless you've changed to a get rich quick strategy? :-)

Market Cap £4.2b at £4.57

Production forecast 195-210k bopd 2022

Currently 215k bopd

Oil 117 bopd
Gas 98k bopd

Divi just under 17p 3.7%

The interesting part, debt reduced by $600m in 1st quarter to $1.7B. Not the full picture as capex only $160m when full year $1.3B and $200m for dividend but on track I'd say to knock it down from $2.3B to $800m at year end.

A £1.2B reduction with healthy capex. Now the very interesting part, hedging knocked oil price received down from $103 to $84 and gas got wacked down from $166 to $66!! That's worth more than one explanation mark.

2023 hedges for gas are slightly lower (about 2m barrels equivalent) whilst oil hedges are 11.5m lower so about $650m more at today's prices. Final hedges in 2024 are about third of 2022's total.

Other than the talk of windfall taxes, it's hard not to go overweight on this Premier investment.

[s34icknote] 13/5/2022 08:10

Bought some more yesterday Hopefully the last retrace before heading over 5.00 !!

[ashkv] 12/5/2022 10:24

215,000 bpd production average for Quarter 1 2022 within guidance without 20,000 bpd net to HBR from Tolmont which has started operations and building up to stable flows - even with maintenance shutdowns expect HBR to strongly beat top range of guidance...

[ashkv] 12/5/2022 10:22

Brent : $105.00
Share Price : 452
Shares Outstanding : 925,532,606
GBPUSD Exch Rate : 1.22
Market Cap GBP : £4,183,407,379
Market Cap USD : $5,103,757,003
Net Debt (2022 Q1 Trading Update): $1,700,000,000
Enterprise Value USD (EV) : $6,803,757,003
HBR Mid:Point Production Guidance 195k-210k for 2022 (Bpd) : 202,500
HBR Q1 2022 Average Production (Bpd) : 215,000
EV/Barrel:USD Mid 2022 Guidance : $33,599
EV/Barrel: (Q1 2022 Average Production - 215,000 bpd): $31,067
(Decommissioning costs : HALF YEAR 2021 Results) : $5,675,000,000
(Decommissioning Costs : Discounted at 10% & After Tax) : $2,000,000,000
EV And After Tax Discounted Decom Exp / Barrel : $43,475
Dividend USD 200mn per annum : Dividend Yield = 3.92%

[ashkv] 12/5/2022 10:22

I just don't get it - HBR included in FTSE 100 as of today (seems to be no buying due to the same), great trading update yest - production on guidance at 215k bpd - a strong uplift from prior quarter, and year on year quarter, debt down by $600mn - each day HBR is paying off debt and per trading update / guidance could be debt free by 2023.

One would think that Enterprise Value = Market Cap + Debt - Cash would have an uplift when net debt down by USD 600 million in 3 months but no.... HBR now super undervalued compared to Tullow and even to bottom surfer Enquest... can't make this up..

As John Maynard Keynes famously stated - “Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."

From 11 May Trading Update RNS ->
"As a result of strong operational performance, underpinned by continued investment in the Group's asset base, and improved commodity prices Harbour is generating material free cash flow. At the end of March Harbour's net debt (excluding unamortised fees) was c. $1.7 billion, reduced from $2.3 billion at the end of 2021, with available liquidity (cash and undrawn facilities) in excess of $2 billion.

At $100/bbl and 200p/therm average prices for 2022, Harbour continues to expect to generate between $1.5 and $1.7 billion of free cash flow (after tax and the $200 million dividend payment) with the potential to be net debt free in 2023. As a result, we have significant optionality over our future capital allocation, including for meaningful value accretive transactions and additional shareholder returns. In the event commodity prices remain elevated and we continue to rapidly de-lever, additional shareholder returns will be considered as we progress through the year within the context of our existing capital allocation framework."

[oilretire] 11/5/2022 17:21

GIC/Northern Trust still selling, now below 5%.Be good to see them out.

[typo56] 11/5/2022 17:03

The high volume in closing auction is due to index funds as HBR replaces FERG in the FTSE 100.

[my retirement fund] 11/5/2022 16:41

Wow 11.8M trade just been. That was a big one!