Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[llef] 27/5/2022 16:26

this is an important point re the new windfall tax

"The important feature of this extra tax is that any money the companies may have lost in previous years, or money they are spending on things like decommissioning North Sea oil platforms cannot be used to reduce the amount of tax they pay."



so buying CNOOC assets wont mitigate the effect of the tax even in you have previous losses to carry forward

[marmar80] 27/5/2022 16:22

Overdone imo

[randomwalker] 27/5/2022 16:12

Yes, HBR is among the least affected companies by Rishi's Tax. The worst affected is likely to be CNOOC. They are just taking out of the North Sea, not investing......and are looking to exit completely. That has reduced the value of their assets, which could make their fields tempting for a company that has spent a lot developing in the North Sea and has tax credits.......someone like........HBR

[one_frankel] 27/5/2022 16:09

Your posting history in HBR definitely demonstrates your undying love for the company or is it just through frustration with buying too high!

[one_frankel] 27/5/2022 13:51

There is no grey areas to the levy, its there in black and white...But how investors are shunning HBR when inadvertently it is incredibly lucrative to their business model is very bizarre!...So consider taking the opportunity with both two hands!

[the millipede] 27/5/2022 13:44

“This is a HUGE buying opportunity. HUGE. Like the covid sell off”

This is the conclusion I have come to.

The tax seems to me totally misunderstood, assuming that is reason for sell off.

There is no retrospective element and, in fact, can be mitigated by investment back into UK oil and gas industry.

More growth tax than windfall grab IMVHO.

[ashkv] 27/5/2022 12:10

Post Windfall Tax Announcement - Per Bloomberg 3 Analysts have refreshed their 12 month target prices for HBR and they are significantly above current 395-400p levels.

Per Bloomberg Terminal - 10 Analysts Cover HBR 9 Have a BUY Reccomendation and 1 has a HOLD Recommendation

On average the 10 analysts have 12 month target price of 592p for HBR

Morgan Stanley on 26 May updated to a 590p 12 month target price
Jefferies on 26 May updated to a 680p 12 month target price
Stifel on 26 May updated to a 670p 12 month target price

[cashisking76] 27/5/2022 11:53

Significantly more “Buys” coming in now as compared to “Sells”, this should rally in afternoon trading and next week, it is clearly way too oversold at the moment.

[brazilnut1] 27/5/2022 11:36

Priced in already eh ? 😂😂😂😂8514;😂ԅ14;😂😂;😂😂😂

[one_frankel] 27/5/2022 10:51

Well let's hope you're not a die-hard fan of the rather 'Dead Behind the Eyes' Biden then Bomfin!

...By the way, within the levy, there is a new ‘Super Deduction’ style relief which is being introduced to encourage firms to invest in oil and gas extraction in the UK...And this new 80% Investment Allowance will mean businesses will overall get a 91p tax saving for every £1 they invest – providing them with an additional, immediate incentive to invest. This nearly doubles the tax relief available and means the more investment a firm makes, the less tax they will pay.”

...Not exactly a dire scenario for Linda Cooks 'Spending Machine' if you looked at it a little closely right!

[ashkv] 27/5/2022 10:45

Ridiculous EV/Barrel for Enquest - didn't expect to witness such levels again

27 May 2022
Brent: $118.50
Shares Outstanding: 1,885,922,875
Enquest SP: 29.5
GBPUSD: 1.26
Production Guidance (Mid 44,000-51,000 for 2022: 47,500
Production Actual to End April 2022: 50,361
Net Debt (USD): $1,090,000,000
Market Cap (GBP): £556,347,248
Market Cap (USD): $700,997,533
ENTERPRISE VALUE (USD): $1,790,997,533
EV/Barrel(USD) Guidance 2022: $37,705
EV/Barrel(USD) Average Production to End April 2022: $35,563

[janhar] 27/5/2022 10:41

Is no one focussing on the oil price and news that shortages are to last for several years to come. 200 dollar oil is a possibility. Desperate negotiations in the Middle East to up production proving fruitless and Russian output declining as out of storage. It's a no brainer

[janhar] 27/5/2022 10:37

This will be back over £5 in a couple of weeks

[janhar] 27/5/2022 10:36

Fall totally overdone - time for a top up

[ashkv] 27/5/2022 10:32

Vs Today

Brent : $118.50
Share Price : 395
Shares Outstanding : 925,532,606
GBPUSD Exch Rate : 1.26
Market Cap GBP : £3,655,853,794
Market Cap USD : $4,606,375,780
Net Debt (2022 Q1 Trading Update): $1,700,000,000
Enterprise Value USD (EV) : $6,306,375,780
HBR Mid:Point Production Guidance 195k-210k for 2022 (Bpd) : 202,500
HBR Q1 2022 Average Production (Bpd) : 215,000
EV/Barrel:USD Mid 2022 Guidance : $31,143
EV/Barrel: (Q1 2022 Average Production - 215,000 bpd): $28,796
(Decommissioning costs : HALF YEAR 2021 Results) : $5,675,000,000
(Decommissioning Costs : Discounted at 10% & After Tax) : $2,000,000,000
EV And After Tax Discounted Decom Exp / Barrel : $41,019
Dividend USD 200mn per annum : Dividend Yield = 4.34%

[ashkv] 27/5/2022 10:30

Below is my snapshot for HBR from 9 December 2021 Capital Markets Day when Brent was $74.5 - Given debt repayment and added production EV/Barrel is today lower than in early December 2021 - approx 6 months prior...

9 Dec 2021 CAPITAL MARKETS DAY
Brent - $74.50
Share Price - 338
Shares Outstanding - 925,532,606
GBPUSD Exch Rate - 1.32
Market Cap GBP - £3,128,300,208
Market Cap USD - $4,129,356,275
Net Debt (Dec Cap Mkt Day 2021 Net Deb USD2.3-2.4Bn- $2,350,000,000
Enterprise Value USD (EV) - $6,479,356,275
HBR Mid-Point Production Guidance for 2022 (Bpd) - 202,500
EV/Barrel-USD Mid 2022 Guidance - $31,997
EV/Barrel-USD - Oct/Nov 21 Production 215kbpd - $30,137
(Decomissioning Costs - HALF YEAR 2021 Results) - $5,675,000,000
(Decommisioning Costs - Discounted at 10% & After Tax) - $2,000,000,000
EV And After Tax Discounted Decom Exp / Barrel - $41,873
Dividend USD 200mn per annum - Dividend Yield = 4.84%

[ashkv] 27/5/2022 10:24

HBR share price only went down post the FTSE 100 entry post great results / debt repayment.. so likely given the perverse trading patterns of HBR being demoted to FTSE 250 will likely result in a share price increase....

Buy backs please...

And more investments outside the UK.... Heading to be a Banana Republic....

[ashkv] 27/5/2022 10:22

Brent up 75% over the past 12 months, Gas up even more, Debt massively down, production up, tax on profits up by 25% as of 26 May... and share price of HBR is down 6% over 12 months just doesn't make sense....

[elsa7878] 27/5/2022 10:20

Trouble now is it is outside the FTSE top 110 and will therefore be relegated back to the 250 at the next review.

[thecomposer] 27/5/2022 10:11

The usual crazy Overreaction here!
Brent is now at an incredible USD $118+ today, HBR will still be printing plenty of cash moving forward, I believe anything less than 550 here is very cheap:

[ashkv] 27/5/2022 10:00

Insane HBR down 5% over 12 months - no wonder the UK stock market is so unloved... a foolish short sighted populist government...be it Tory or Labour....